How the USWNT Can Qualify for the Knockout Rounds at 2023 Women’s World Cup

Breaking down every possible scenario for the U.S.—including the unthinkable.

Group play is entering its final stage at the 2023 Women’s World Cup, and the situation is not as much of a guarantee for the U.S. women’s national team as it’s been in years past.

After a 1–1 draw with the Netherlands on Wednesday night, the Americans and the Dutch are tied in points at the top of Group E’s table, but the U.S. has the advantage in goal differential. Here is how Group E’s standings sit after each team has played two games.

Women’s World Cup Group E Standings

1. United States: 4 points, +3 goal differential
2. Netherlands: 4 points, +1 GD
3. Portugal: 3 points, +1 GD
4. Vietnam: 0 points, -5 GD

Because of how tight things are—a trend across many of the groups in this expanded 32-team field—there are a few possibilities of how it could all shake out come Tuesday morning when the U.S. faces off against Portugal at 3 a.m. ET, while the Netherlands takes on Vietnam simultaneously. Let’s do the math for all the different scenarios.

Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

How the U.S. can qualify for the round of 16

As long as the U.S. doesn’t lose to Portugal, it can secure its place in the knockout rounds.

• Win or draw vs. Portugal
• Loss vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss to Vietnam AND U.S. maintain goal differential advantage over the Netherlands (if both teams sit even in GD, the tiebreaker for second place would be decided first on Fair Play, and then by drawing of lots. Portugal would win Group E)

How the U.S. can win Group E

Winning the group is not entirely in the hands of the Americans like it usually is. Finishing as the Group E winner will require some help from Vietnam in its game against the Netherlands.

• Win vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam
• Win vs. Portugal AND maintain goal differential advantage over the Netherlands
• Draw vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam

The U.S’s path to the World Cup final

Since winning the group is not a guarantee for the U.S., there are two possible paths for the Americans should they return to the World Cup final.

• Women’s World Cup schedule: Streaming, TV information.

As Group E winner

• Round of 16 vs. 2G (likely Italy, Argentina or South Africa)
• Quarterfinals vs. 1A or 2C (likely Switzerland, New Zealand or Japan)
• Semifinals vs. 1C/2A/1G/2E (likely Sweden, Spain, New Zealand, the Philippines or the Netherlands)

As Group E runner-up

• Round of 16 vs. 1G (likely Sweden)
• Quarterfinals vs. 1C/2A (likely Spain, New Zealand, the Philippines or Switzerland)
• Semifinals vs. 1A/2C/1E/2G (likely Switzerland, New Zealand, Japan, Italy or the Netherlands)

How USWNT would be eliminated in group play

As the two-time defending champs, this seems like an unthinkable scenario for the USWNT. But as of now, it is still possible.

• Loss vs. Portugal AND the Netherlands draw/win

Should this happen, it would be the first time in Women’s World Cup history the U.S. is not in the knockout rounds.