Champions League Round of 16 Predictions: Man City, Real Madrid Get Favorable Draws

The English titleholders will ease into the knockout stage while PSG avoided a sure disaster. But how will the rest of the field play out?

The road to Wembley has entered the knockout rounds. After Monday’s draw, the stage is set for the Round of 16 with Manchester United, AC Milan and Benfica as the biggest absentees.

Rather surprisingly, there are no massive showdowns coming out of the draw, despite PSG and Inter Milan both finishing second in their group. (Each side could have just as easily drawn Manchester City, Bayern or Real Madrid.) Instead, we got a relatively light Round of 16 that kicks off Feb. 13 and ends March 13 , with another draw on March 15 to determine the quarterfinals and semifinals.

Here is a preview, and some predictions, for the Champions League Round of 16:

Porto vs. Arsenal

After making a push for the Premier League title last year, the Gunners wasted no time in putting their mark on the Champions League following a six-year absence. Arsenal won a sneakily tough group that featured a Lens side that fell one point short of the Ligue 1 title, PSV Eindhoven and Sevilla—and never conceded a goal at home.

But while Porto might appear like a good draw to Arsenal fans, the Portuguese side impressed mightily by finishing second in the group only due to its inferior record against Barcelona. Porto’s attack will be the Gunners’ biggest concern, led by four-goal scorers Galeno (who also has four assists) and Evanilson. Expect some fireworks in this one.

Prediction: Arsenal advances

Napoli vs. Barcelona

In what has been billed as the Maradona derby, the Serie A champions take on the La Liga winners in what should be the most competitive matchup of the Round of 16. Barcelona will be without playmaker Gavi after scraping past Porto in its group. A tie with Napoli is winnable, but it will have to hope that its La Liga fortunes don’t follow it into Europe.

After winning the Scudetto last year for the first time in 30 years, Napoli has struggled to maintain its form after manager Luciano Spalletti left (and eventually signed on as Italy coach). Despite its current fifth-place standing, which would leave it out of qualifying for next year’s Champions League, Napoli advanced to knockouts but also lost twice to Real Madrid. Without Victor Osimhen firing on all cylinders, it hardly stands a chance.

Prediction: Barcelona advances

PSG vs. Real Sociedad

Who would’ve thought the premier Round of 16 match would include a small Basque club that had only made four previous appearances in the Champions League? Even more surprising is the fact that Real Sociedad not only made it to the knockout stage, but that it won the group in unbeaten fashion while conceding only twice.

PSG, meanwhile, was considered one of the Champions League favorites entering the season only to finish tied for second in the group and advance only due to its superior goal differential against AC Milan. Kylian Mbappé & Co. now need to get serious against the Champions League’s top defensive side of the group stage—Real Sociedad conceded the fewest goals, including none on the road.

Prediction: PSG advances

Erling Haaland (lef) and Antoine Griezmann (right) each have five goals, while Mbappé has three :: IMAGO/motivio/PanoramiC/ZUMA Wire

Inter Milan vs. Atlético Madrid

After its embarrassing last-place finish in the 2022-23 group stage, it appeared as if the Diego Simeone era at Atlético Madrid was coming to an end. All it took was a scintillating start to the Champions League group stage this year to reinforce his dynasty after leading Los Colchoneros to an unbeaten, first-place finish.

Behind Simeone’s revitalization was the resurgence of Antoine Greizmann, who co-leads the Champions League goalscoring charts with five goals. After making the Champions League final last season thanks in part to an easy draw, Inter Milan struggled to impress in the group stage with three wins and three draws. The Italian side’s road to the final will be a lot more difficult this year, starting with Atlético.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid advances

PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund, picked by many to finish last in the group, was one of the biggest surprises of the group stage by topping a Group of Death that featured PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle. Even more impressive is the fact that Dortmund conceded only four goals in six games to those high-profile attacks.

But Dortmund has a few fitness problems, including a recent injury to Karim Adebayi, who recorded two goals and an assist (and was the fastest recorded player in the group stage). For U.S. men’s national team fans, Ricardo Pepi, Sergiño Dest, Malik Tillman and Gio Reyna are all expected to play a part in this tie.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund advances

Lazio vs. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich has been its usual, consistent self in the group stage, going unbeaten in a competitive group that featured FC Copenhagen, Manchester United and Galatasaray. Its surprise slip-up was a scoreless draw with Copenhagen, but the German champion gave us the best match of the group stage with a 4–3 win over United.

Harry Kane is sure to be the target of Lazio’s gameplan after scoring a third of Bayern’s group stage goals. Maurizio Sarri’s club struggled to score in the group stage with only seven goals in six matches, but Lazio did secure three clean sheets. Expect the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico to be especially heavy on the defensive tactics.

Prediction: Bayern Munich advances

FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester City

There’s nothing saying that the defending champions get the easiest draw in their title defense, but that happens to be the way things worked this year. FC Copenhagen has only made the knockout stage once before (a Round of 16 exit in 2010–11). Yet the Danish side won’t be taken for granted after surviving a group with Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Galatasaray.

But this is still Manchester City, which, after shedding its Champions League curse last year, is the title favorite once again. No team scored more goals than City in the group stage, thanks to Champions League co-leading scorer Erling Haaland’s five goals and the club’s penchant for dropping three goals in each of its six games. For once, the Premier League might be a bigger challenge for Manchester City than the Champions League.

Prediction: Manchester City advances

RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid

After running into the Man City juggernaut last season in the Champions League semifinals, Real Madrid returned with a perfect group stage, winning all six of its matches. Despite losing Karim Benzema in the transfer window, Los Blancos didn’t have trouble scoring thanks to the addition of Jude Bellingham’s four goals (the English midfielder also leads La Liga with 13 goals).

But Real’s weakness will come in the form of its injury problems. David Alaba became the third Real starter to suffer a season-ending knee injury this season along with Thibaut Courtois and Éder Militão. After being best of the rest in Man City’s group, RB Leipzig and star striker Loïs Openda will provide Carlo Ancelotti’s first real test as he looks to fortify Real’s backline.

Prediction: Real Madrid advances