2024 MLS Cup Playoffs Scenarios for Decision Day

Four playoff spots are up for grabs on Decision Day, all in the Eastern Conference.

LAFC and LA Galaxy battle it out for the top spot in the Western Conference / Kelvin Kuo-Imagn Images

The 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs are on the horizon as the regular season draws to a close with Inter Miami claiming the Supporters' Shield title.

Many teams already booked their spots in the postseason with the final matchday remaining on Saturday, Oct. 19—also known as Decision Day. While the Western Conference is done and dusted with all nine postseason spots secured, there's more to play for in the Eastern Conference in the race for the final two wild card spots.

El Tráfico rivals LA Galaxy and LAFC are fighting it out for the top spot in the division. The Galaxy currently sit in first place with 64 points while LAFC are right behind their rival with 61 points. Seattle Sounders, Real Salt Lake, Houston Dynamo, Colorado Rapids, Vancouver Whitecaps, Minnesota United and Portland Timbers all clinched playoff spots in the Western Conference with teams now playing for seeding on the final day of the regular season.

On the opposite side of the MLS world, Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati locked in the respective second and third places in the Eastern Conference behind Miami. Meanwhile, New York Red Bulls, NYCFC, Orlando City and Charlotte FC all battle it out for seeding in the conference with two spots remaining for four teams in the hunt.

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Which Four MLS Teams Are Still Alive in the Postseason Hunt?

D.C. United, CF Montréal, Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United are all still alive for a spot in the upcoming MLS Cup playoffs. Although Toronto FC sit in 10th place in the Eastern Conference on 37 points, the Canadian outfit's 34 matches played—the total number of games played in a regular season—means it cannot qualify since D.C. and Montréal are both on 40 points.

Here's how the final four playoff candidates rank in terms of their chances of reaching the postseason.

1. D.C United

D.C. currently occupies eighth place in the Eastern Conference, only ahead of Montréal on goal difference. The Black and Red arguably have the easiest Decision Day match out of the four postseason-hungry teams taking on Charlotte FC at Audi Field.

Charlotte is by no means an easy opponent to take on but based on the table and Christian Benteke gunning for the 2024 Golden Boot award, it's not unrealistic to think that D.C. could come away with at least a point at home which would be enough to seal its place in the postseason.

MLS provided D.C.'s qualifying scenarios below:

1. D.C. win/draw vs. Charlotte or...
2. Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati AND D.C. own tiebreaker advantage over Montréal or...
3. Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando AND D.C. own tiebreaker advantage over Montréal or...
4. Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando

2. CF Montréal

While D.C. has a goal difference of -15, Montréal's is worse at -18. However, the Canadian club is still in charge of its own destiny like D.C. heading into the final day of the regular season.

Montréal sits in ninth place in the table with 40 points ahead of its home clash against NYCFC. Like D.C., all Montréal needs is a draw to clinch a playoff spot against an NYCFC team that is very talented but far too inconsistent. NYCFC can finish as high as fourth or as low as seventh place meaning they have something to play for but Montréal still has a solid chance of coming away with a result in front of its supporters.

Montréal's qualifying scenarios are as follows, per MLS:

1. Montréal win/draw vs. New York City or...
2. D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati AND Montréal own tiebreaker advantage over D.C. or...
3. D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando AND Montréal own tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta or...
4. Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando

3. Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia sits in 11th place in the East with 37 points and has a plus-eight goal differential, the best out of of the four remaining. However, it doesn't control its own destiny like D.C. and Montréal and must take down FC Cincinnati at home to even have a shot at the playoffs.

There's a good chance that the Union come away from its home match vs. FC Cincinnati with all three points since their opponents can't climb in the Eastern Conference standings but in the end, it's relying on help from other teams which isn't all that ideal.

Here are Philadelphia's qualifying scenarios per MLS:

1. Philadelphia win vs. Cincinnati AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte or...
2. Philadelphia win vs. Cincinnati AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando or...
3. Philadelphia win vs. Cincinnati AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Philadelphia own tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta or...
4. Philadelphia win vs. Cincinnati AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Atlanta lose/draw at Orlando or...
5. Philadelphia win vs. Cincinnati AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Philadelphia own tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta

4. Atlanta United

Atlanta's situation is much like Philadelphia's in that it must win to have a chance at the postseason while hoping for the teams above them to help them out. Atlanta also has the second-best goal differential out of the four teams in the hunt at minus-four and sits in 12th place in the East.

The Five Stripes' final match of the regular season comes against Orlando on the road at Inter&Co Stadium. Orlando can't move up in the East but it could drop down to fifth place with NYCFC just two behind them in the table. In order to shore up fifth place, Orlando could look to go strong against Atlanta while also knocking out its rivals from postseason contention.

Here are the qualifying scenarios per MLS:

1. Atlanta win at Orlando AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte or...
2. Atlanta win at Orlando AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati or...
3. Atlanta win at Orlando AND Montréal lose vs. New York City AND Atlanta own tiebreaker advantage over Philadelphia or...
4. Atlanta win at Orlando AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Philadelphia lose/draw vs. Cincinnati or...
5. Atlanta win at Orlando AND D.C. lose vs. Charlotte AND Atlanta own tiebreaker advantage over Philadelphia

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