2025 Ballon d'Or Favorites: Ranked

Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski leads La Liga in scoring.

Robert Lewandowski is the early favorite to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or. / IMAGO/Pressinphoto

The favorites to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or feature the best players on four of the biggest clubs in the world.

Now that Rodri won the 2024 Ballon d'Or for his contributions to Manchester City and Spain, the 2025 Ballon d'Or is officially up for grabs. The next winner of soccer's highest individual honor must secure his spot among the top players in the sport throughout the 2024–25 season.

The competition for the award is greater than ever, so much so that some of the best players in Europe, including Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé and Barcelona's Raphinha, are just honorable mentions at the time of writing. Even Liverpool's Mohamed Salah is currently on the outside looking in.

From La Liga's superstars to the Premier League and Bundesliga's best goalscorers, here's the five favorites to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or.

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5. Harry Kane (England, Bayern Munich)

Harry Kane is coming off a 44-goal season for Bayern Munich. / IMAGO/Jan Huebner

All eyes are on Harry Kane in his second season with Bayern Munich. The striker recorded 44 goals for the German giants in 2023–24, but the club ended the year without a trophy. Still, the England international took home the 2024 Gerd Müller Trophy and is already on his way to replicating last season's goalscoring form.

Kane already has 15 goals to his name through 12 matches across all competitions in Bayern Munich's 2024–25 campaign. In fact, he found the back of the net four times against Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League on Sept. 17.

The 31-year-old remains one of the top strikers in the world, but his production alone will not win him the 2025 Ballon d'Or; he must first add a club trophy to his cabinet.

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4. Lamine Yamal (Spain, Barcelona)

Lamine Yamal became the youngest goalscorer in El Clasico history. / IMAGO/PanoramiC

Lamine Yamal continues to build his legacy at the young age of 17 years old. So much of Barcelona's success comes from the vision and creativity of the Euro 2024 winner.

The Barcelona man is already one of the best wingers in Spain and off to a ferocious start under Hansi Flick. With five goals and six assists through the Catalans' first 11 La Liga fixtures, Yamal equaled his domestic appearances this season with goal contributions.

Yamal won the 2024 Kopa Trophy for his efforts last season and finished eighth in this year's Ballon d'Or rankings. If the Spaniard keeps up his current form, then he will improve his placing and possibly even become the youngest player in history to win the Ballon d'Or.

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3. Erling Haaland (Norway, Manchester City)

Erling Haaland holds the record for fastest player to score 100 goals for a single club. / IMAGO/MI News

Erling Haaland scoring goals for Manchester City is just routine at this point. Through nine Premier League matches, the 24-year-old already bagged 11 goals. The striker also tied Cristiano Ronaldo's longstanding record as the fastest player to score 100 goals for a single club.

If Manchester City wins a fifth consecutive Premier League title, then the club's leading goalscorer is surely a favorite to finish as at least a 2025 Ballon d'Or finalist. If Pep Guardiola's side snags additional silverware, well, Haaland could very well find himself on stage.

It feels like a dominant Champions League performance is what the striker needs to secure the 2025 Ballon d'Or.

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2. Vinícius Júnior (Brazil, Real Madrid)

Vinícius Júnior is Real Madrid's best player. / IMAGO/Alex Perez

The Vinícius Júnior revenge tour is officially underway. After losing the 2024 Ballon d'Or, the Brazilian wrote on X, "I will do it 10 times again if I have to. They are not ready."

Vinícius Júnior continues to be the best player on the biggest club in the world. The winger already won the UEFA Super Cup with Real Madrid this season and is looking to help the club defend its La Liga and Champions League titles. With eight goals and four assists through Los Blancos' first 15 matches across all competitions, the 24-year-old is well on his way to matching or besting his 26-goal haul from last season.

The odds are against Vinícius Jr. when it comes to the 2025 Ballon d'Or, though; if his 2023–24 performances were not enough to bring home the award this year, then it is hard to imagine him securing the honor next October.

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1. Robert Lewandowski (Poland, Barcelona)

Robert Lewandowski leads La Liga in goalscoring. / IMAGO/AFLOSPORT

Robert Lewandowski is firing on all cylinders under Hansi Flick. Through 11 La Liga games in the 2024–25 season, the Poland international already bagged a league-high 14 goals. He also found the back of the net three times in as many Champions League fixtures.

If the 36-year-old keeps up his blistering pace, then Barcelona is on its way to silverware after going trophyless last season. Lewandowski could finally receive the recognition he deserves as one of the best strikers in soccer.

Taking home the Ballon d'Or award would feel even sweeter for Lewandowski after he was robbed of the trophy in 2020; France Football canceled the ceremony due to the COVID-19 pandemic when the Poland international was destined to win the prize.

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