Dark Horse Picks to Advance to the Champions League 2024–25 Knockout Stage

Of the teams in Pots 3 and 4, PSV, Celtic and Aston Villa have the best chances of punching their tickets to the round of 16.

Aston Villa hopes to translate its Premier League success to Europe. / IMAGO/Nigel French

All eyes are on the biggest clubs in the world ahead of the new league phase in the Champions League 2024–25, but there are a few sneaky dark horses that just might surprise the world and earn a spot in the knockout stage.

The updated Champions League format split the 36 qualified teams into four seeding pots, delivering a comprehensive ranking of all the participating clubs ahead of the league phase draw. The best teams, based on last season’s performances, found themselves in Pot 1, while the next tier of clubs settled for Pot 2, and so on.

On paper, the top 18 clubs in the competition are superior to the bottom 18 clubs. Therefore, the favorites to advance beyond the league phase are those in Pots 1 and 2, like Real Madrid, Manchester City and Arsenal.

Favorable draws and current winning form, though, give several teams in Pots 3 and 4 a great opportunity to punch their ticket to the round of 16.

PSV Eindhoven – Pot 3

PSV jumps out as one of the bottom 18 teams capable of making it to the knockout rounds. The reigning Dutch champions kicked off their title defense with five consecutive victories, scoring a total of 20 goals in their opening fixtures.

The competition PSV faces in the league phase will be tougher than its domestic matchups, but the club proved last year that it can rise to the occasion against Premier League, Ligue 1 and La Liga talent. In its 2023–24 Champions League campaign, PSV finished second in its group, featuring Arsenal, Sevilla and Lens, after only losing one match in its six fixtures.

One year later, Peter Bosz’s men will once again face teams they can beat from Europe’s top five leagues, including a Girona side without Savinho and Artem Dovbyk, a struggling Brest and Crvena zvezda.

Of course, Liverpool, PSG and Juventus will be tougher tests, but as long as PSV defeats the teams it should beat, then even a draw against one of the top clubs could be the positive result it needs to advance to the knockout rounds.

Celtic – Pot 3

In recent years, Celtic had the unfortunate pleasure of facing some of the top teams in the world in the Champions League group stage, including Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig. The Scottish giants have not made the knockout rounds in the UCL in over a decade, but Brendan Rodgers’s side can finally snap its poor European streak after a decent draw for the 2024–25 league phase.

Celtic avoided many of the most threatening teams in Pots 1 and 2 and instead must face Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, Club Brugge and Atalanta. Even if the club stumbles against its four most difficult opponents, Celtic can make up the points against Young Boys, Dinamo Zagreb, SK Slovan Bratislava and Aston Villa.

The reigning Scottish Premiership champions have yet to concede a goal in their opening five league fixtures and even bagged pre-season victories over Manchester City and Chelsea. If Callum McGregor keeps pulling the strings from the midfield and Kasper Schmeichel continues to stand tall behind his solid backline, Celtic can definitely get itself to the round of 16.

Aston Villa – Pot 4

Aston Villa secured its return to European soccer after finishing fourth in the Premier League last season. With four-time Europa League-winning manager, Unai Emery at the helm, Aston Villa are poised to make a statement in its first Champions League fixture since 1982.

The club might have had an underwhelming finish to its 2023–24 Premier League campaign, but it bounced back this season, only dropping points to Arsenal in a game that could have gone either way.

Unlike other Pot 4 teams, Aston Villa play in arguably the most competitive league in the world and its weekly Premier League fixtures are all the preparation the team needs to find success in the UCL, especially against the “easier” teams in its draw, like Young Boys, Bologna and Monaco.

Aston Villa might be outmatched against Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, but Emery's men stand a fighting chance so long as Emiliano Martínez, fresh off winning the Golden Glove at Copa América 2024, starts between the posts.