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NWSL Regular Season Finale Clinching Scenarios Explained

All the potential outcomes and scenarios that you need to know ahead of the final weekend of the NWSL regular season.

Theo Lloyd-Hughes

Taylor Flint (26) is swarmed by her Racing Louisville teammates after keeping their playoff dreams alive against Portland Thorns FC | Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-Imagn Images
Taylor Flint (26) is swarmed by her Racing Louisville teammates after keeping their playoff dreams alive against Portland Thorns FC | Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-Imagn Images / Kareem Elgazzar-Imagn Images

This weekend the curtain will come down on the 2024 NWSL regular season.

The Orlando Pride have already claimed the NWSL Shield, the trophy handed out to the club that tops the standings at the end of the regular season. Thus, the purple-clad Floridians will also head into the playoffs as the number one seed.

The top eight teams in the standings will advance to the 2024 NWSL playoffs and compete for the coveted NWSL Championship. In addition to Orlando, five clubs have already booked a ticket to the postseason: Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, KC Current, NC Courage, and the Chicago Red Stars.

What is on the Line This Weekend?

Within that cluster of five qualified teams, the eventual final placements are still for grabs except for the Courage. North Carolina cannot finish anywhere other than fifth place. The Red Stars cannot climb up higher than sixth, so will finish in sixth, seventh, or eighth in the standings.

The battle for the second seed is mightily close. It will be decided this weekend. The Spirit and Gotham are level on points (53), with the Current just one point behind (52). The trio could finish anywhere from second to fourth in any combination depending on the outcomes of their matches.

Whatever happens, the trio will all host a NWSL quarterfinal game. But the second seed would guarantee hosting a semifinal, should the club advance that far.

With the top six locked in for the postseason, the big question becomes who will clinch the last two remaining playoff places?

The Battle for Seventh and Eighth

For a trio of teams, elimination games start this weekend. The Portland Thorns (31 points), Bay FC (31 points), and Racing Louisville (28 points) are the three clubs still battling it out to finish in a playoff spot.

This weekend, the Thorns host Angel City FC, Bay travels to the Houston Dash, and Racing will close out the weekend against the San Diego Wave.

What do Portland and Bay Need to Clinch?

Currently, sitting in seventh and eighth places, it's a pretty simple target for Portland and Bay: Just don't lose. A win or a draw is enough.

One point will guarantee both clubs make the 2024 NWSL playoffs and eliminate Louisville. Three points would even offer a chance for either club to climb above Chicago in sixth place.

What Does Louisville Need to Clinch?

The first thing Louisville needs is one of (or both of) Portland and Bay to lose. Racing also must win against the Wave. Nothing less than three points is enough.

Portland and Bay are currently three points ahead of Louisville in the standings, which means they cannot be overtaken on points. However, the tiebreaker after points is goal difference. And, on goal difference the three teams rank as so: Thorns -1, Racing -4, and then Bay -11.

Bay's vastly inferior goal difference means that should there be a three-way tie, where Portland lose, Bay lose, and Louisville wins, then Bay would be the ones eliminated.

This means for Portland to be eliminated, they would have to lose to Angel City, Bay would have to draw or win against Houston, and Louisville would have to beat San Diego and overturn a three-goal deficit in the tiebreaker.

That's not out of the realm of possibility. For example, if Portland lost 1-0 and Louisville won 3-0, then the two would be level on points, with 31, but Louisville would have flipped to having the better goal difference (-1).

Tiebreaker Chaos to Keep in Mind

Should Portland and Louisville finish equal on points and goal difference, then it will go to the next tiebreaker, which is total wins. The Thorns' total of nine wins eclipses Racing's seven. Even if Louisville wins on the final weekend, it would only reach eight total wins.

So, that means Louisville has to leapfrog the Thorns on goal difference and cannot rely on being level on goal difference. To make the playoffs, Racing will have to flip that three-goal deficit should Portland lose and Bay draw or win.

Scenarios Cheat Sheet

  • Portland Thorns clinches: W or D, or Bay FC L, or Racing Louisville L.
  • Bay FC clinches: W or D, or Racing Louisville L.
  • Racing Louisville clinches: W + Bay FC L, or W + Portland Thorns L + three-goal margin swing.

Matchweek 26 Schedule (All Times in EST)

Friday, Nov. 1

  • Utah Royals vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC, 9:30 p.m., on NWSL+
  • Portland Thorns vs. Angel City FC, 10:00 p.m., on Amazon Prime Video

Saturday, Nov. 2

  • Orlando Pride vs. Seattle Reign, 5:00 p.m., on ION
  • NC Courage vs. Washington Spirit, 7:30 p.m., on ION
  • Houston Dash vs. Bay FC, 9:30 p.m., on ION

Sunday, Nov. 3

  • Chicago Red Stars vs. KC Current, 3:00 p.m., on ESPN
  • San Diego Wave vs. Racing Louisville 5:30 p.m., on ESPN
Published
Theo Lloyd-Hughes
THEO LLOYD-HUGHES

Theo Lloyd-Hughes is a writer for Sports Illustrated Soccer based in the Southern United States. Originally from England, he can often be found in a press box across the NWSL or at international matches featuring the USWNT and other Concacaf nations.

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