Opta Supercomputer's EPL Predictions Spell Trouble for Arsenal's Title Hopes

The Gunners trail Liverpool by nine points ahead of the November international break.

Opta Supercomputer does not give Arsenal a high chance at winning the Premier League. / IMAGO/Action Plus

Opta Supercomputer's latest Premier League predictions only show two teams in the running for the 2024–25 English crown.

It might only be November, but Opta is already delivering its pick for the next Premier League winner. Manchester City has topped the league for four straight seasons, but the resurgence of Liverpool under Arne Slot is giving Pep Guardiola's side some stiff competition, while Arsenal and Chelsea wait in the wings.

City, Arsenal and Chelsea all dropped points in Matchweek 11, though, shaking up the Premier League table ahead of the November international break. With domestic play on pause, Opta calculated the individual probability of each club's chances at hoisting the ultimate piece of silverware in England's top flight.

Check out how Opta sees the Premier League title race going for the the top 10 teams in the EPL.

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Opta Supercomputer 2024–25 Premier League Predictions

Position	Team	Opta Probability of Winning the Premier League
1.	Liverpool	60.5%
2.	Manchester City	34.6%
3.	Chelsea	0.2%
4.	Arsenal	4.6%
5.	Nottingham Forest	0.0%
6.	Brighton & Hove Albion	0.0%
7.	Fulham	0.0%
8.	Newcastle United	0.1%
9.	Aston Villa	0.0%
10.	Tottenham Hotspur	0.0%

Opta gives Liverpool the highest chance of winning the Premier League this season. Slot's side currently sits atop the table with 28 points through 11 games. Besides a loss to Nottingham Forest and a draw to Arsenal, the Reds have not dropped any points in their 2024–25 campaign.

Next in line is Manchester City. The defending English champions trail Liverpool by five points after suffering back-to-back EPL defeats to Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion. Despite its recent run of form, though, Pep Guardiola's side is still the second-favorite to lift the Premier League title at the end of the season.

The only other club with a realistic possibility—albeit a small one—is Arsenal. The Gunners came into the season as the favorites to challenge City for the English crown, yet a series of underwhelming results has Mikel Arteta's men fourth in the standings with 19 points.

Just one month ago, Bukayo Saka said "this is the year" for Arsenal to win the Premier League after finishing as the runner-up for the last two years. Except defeats to Bournemouth and Newcastle United, as well as draws to City and Liverpool in games they arguably should have won have the Gunners' chances looking slim. In fact, no side trailing by nine points through 11 matches has ever come back to win the Premier League.

Of the top ten sides, Chelsea and Newcastle United are the remaining two clubs with a miniscule percentage to win the Premier League. Every other team has a 0.0% probability of finding themselves atop the table come May.

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