How well are Sunderland doing compared to previous newly-promoted clubs?

We all know Sunderland are doing well, but just HOW well are they doing according to recent history?

Michael Graham | Feb 15, 2023

How well are Sunderland doing compared to previous newly-promoted clubs? /

After the immediate jubilation of Wembley died away, few would have been brave enough to predict Sunderland would be in a play-off position at this stage of the following Championship season.

After all, Sunderland were not exactly dominant in League One. They finished 5th and had to wait until the last game of the season to be sure of a spot in the play-offs.

However, as things stand, a Championship play-off position is exactly where Sunderland sit.

With 15 games left in the season, the Black Cats are 5th in the Championship table, and what a fun ride it has been.

In many ways, the lack of expectation is actually feeling like a bit of a holiday for supporters. Sunderland always comes with pressure and expectation because of how big a club it is. It has always been that way.

In time, it will return and promotion to the Premier League will start to be demanded as well, and rightly so. For now, though, this season feels like a bit of a free hit.

While we all know Sunderland are doing very well, we thought we'd have a look to see just how well they are doing by comparing them to all the previous newly promoted clubs of the last ten years.

Sunderland in 2022/23

	Position	Points	Points per game (PPG)
Sunderland	5th	48	1.54 (projected total: 71)

Sunderland find themselves in a really positive position heading towards the run-in of the Championship season.

They are the top scorers in the league outside of the top three, and only Burnley, Sheffield United and Middlesbrough can better their goal difference too.

We will have to wait and see if it cam be maintained, but their current points-per-game has them on course for 71 points.

How Sunderland compare

The gap between League One and the Championship is a wide one. In fact, the two sides that came up with Sunderland last season are both in the bottom five right now.

It is worth remembering that they both finished above Sunderland last season too.

In the last ten years, 30% of newly-promoted teams have been immediately relegated from the Championship. Expanding that to look at League One play-off winners only and the figure becomes 40%.

2012/13

	Position	Points	PPG
Charlton	9th	65	1.41
Sheffield Wednesday	18th	58	1.26
Huddersfield (Play-offs)	19th	58	1.26

2013/14

	Position	Points	PPG
Bournemouth	10th	66	1.43
Doncaster	22nd	44	0.95
Yeovil (Play-offs)	24nd	37	0.80

2014/15

	Position	Points	PPG
Wolves	7th	78	1.69
Brentford	5th	78	1.69
Rotherham (Play offs)	21st	46	1.00

2015/16

	Position	Points	PPG
Bristol City	18th	52	1.13
MK Dons	23rd	39	0.84
Preston (Play offs)	11th	62	1.34

2016/17

	Position	Points	PPG
Wigan	23rd	42	0.91
Burton Albion	20th	52	1.13
Barnsley (Play-offs)	14th	58	1.26

2017/18

	Position	Points	PPG
Sheffield United	10th	69	1.50
Bolton	21st	43	0.93
Millwall (Play-offs)	8th	72	1.56

2018/19

	Position	Points	PPG
Wigan	18th	52	1.13
Blackburn	15th	60	1.30
Rotherham (Play-offs)	22nd	40	0.86

2019/2020

	Position	Points	PPG
Luton	19th	51	1.10
Barnsley	21st	49	1.06
Charlton (Play-offs)	22nd	48	1.04

2020/21

	Position	Points	PPG
Coventry	16th	55	1.19
Rotherham	23rd	42	0.91
Wycombe (Play-offs)	22nd	43	0.93

2021/22

	Position	Points	PPG
Peterborough	22nd	37	0.80
Hull	19th	51	1.10
Blackpool (Play-offs)	16th	60	1.30

In three of the last four years in the Championship, the League One play-off winners have been relegated.

Blackpool were the club to buck that trend last season, although they still finished lower-midtable. At the time of writing, they are rock bottom.

Brentford were the promoted team to do best in the last ten seasons, with the Bees finishing 5th in 2014/78. Wolves got the same points as Brentford that season too but missed out on goal-difference.

So, clearly, what Sunderland are currently achieving is very much out of the ordinary in terms of newly-promoted clubs in the Championship.

How rare are back-to-back promotions?

In football, back-to-back promotions are rare. In terms of League One to Premier League in two years - exceptionally rare.

It has been done three times before, by Watford, Southampton and Norwich. In fact, the latter two did at pretty much the same time.

The most recent, Southampton, was in in 2012, though, so it's not something that happens very often at all.

What the trends say about Sunderland's future

While back-to-back promotions do happen, it is interesting to note that all three teams who achieved it were relegated from the Premier League immediately.

When Tony Mowbray warned that promotion to the Premier League this season would come with serious challenges, that is what he was referring to.

What is interesting, though, is that of the six teams (in the last ten years) who finished in the Championship top ten as a newly-promoted club, three - Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Wolves - went on to be promoted to the Premier League within three seasons.

Brentford also got there, of course, although it took them slightly longer. Millwall and Charlton are the teams who failed to build on a fine first season in the Championship.

History certainly suggests that Sunderland are part of a trend that generally produces Premier League football in a relatively expedient timescale, which is very encouraging.