Sunderland Stats: Will Ross Stewart return fix worrying home form?

The Stadium of Light has been far from a fortress for Sunderland this season, but why is that?

There is an awful lot to like about what Sunderland have done this season, but the home form is not one of them. 

In fact, only Wigan have won fewer Championship points on home soil than Sunderland, and only the Latics and Preston have scored fewer goals. 

For context, no team has played fewer games at home than Sunderland either, but the statistics are worrying nonetheless.

	Sunderland (Home)	Sunderland (Away)
Games	9	11
Wins	2	5
Draws	4	2
Defeats	3	4
Scored	10	16
Conceded	10	13
Win %	22%	45%
Points per game	1.11	1.54
Goals per game	1.11	1.45
Conceded per game	1.11	1.18

There is a very clear difference between how Sunderland have performed at home this season compared to their away form. You'd actually usually expect those kind of figures to be inverted. 

I'd say there has been a big difference in performance levels too, so it can't just be put down to Sunderland not getting the rub of the green at the Stadium of Light. 

The question is why is it happening, and the injury to Ross Stewart is an obvious place to start. 

Sunderland look set to welcome back Ross Stewart from injury this weekend against Millwall, and it has can't come soon enough.

The Scot is still Sunderland's top goalscorer despite being missing since early September, underlining his importance to the side. 

Sunderland home form with and without Ross Stewart

	With Ross Stewart (Home)	Without Ross Stewart (Home)
Games	4	5
Wins	1	1
Draws	2	2
Defeats	1	2
Scored	6	4
Conceded	4	6
Win %	25%	20%
Points per game	1.25	1
Goals per game	1.5	0.8
Conceded per game	1	1.2

It's admittedly a small sample of both, but it is also quite revealing. To start with, it certainly feels like we have been missing Ross Stewart for more than five home games! 

What is striking, though, is that Sunderland were considerably more likely to score with Stewart in the side at home. 

Context is important too, of course. The freak happenings at the end of the QPR game have had a major impact on the win-percentage with Stewart, so that should really be higher. 

Also, three of the four games Stewart played at home also featured Ellis Simms, while all but one of those without him did. Therefore, we can't attribute the big difference in goals per game to Stewart alone as the team went from playing with two strikers to essentially none. 

Sunderland away form with and without Ross Stewart

	With Ross Stewart (Away)	Without Ross Stewart (Away)
Games	3	8
Wins	2	3
Draws	0	2
Defeats	1	3
Scored	5	11
Conceded	4	9
Win %	66%	37.5
Points per game	2	1.38
Goals per game	1.66	1.38
Conceded per game	1.33	1.13

It is interesting - almost striking in fact - that as far as the away form goes, there has not been a major drop off in terms of numbers since Sunderland lost Stewart to injury. 

Stewart played so few away games before his injury that the numbers with him are tough to judge. However, Sunderland's form away from the Stadium of light has been good both with and without Stewart. 

Indeed, only Sheffield United and Preston have a better away record in the Championship so far this season. 

A question of style?

The away from pretty much holding firm without Ross Stewart raises an interesting suggestion. Is Sunderland's style of play just much more suited to playing away from home?

Certainly, you look at the likes of Amad Diallo, Jack Clarke and Patrick Roberts and it's clear they are exceptional on the counter-attack. 

The quality, and types, of goals Sunderland have scored this season also make that point pretty clearly. 

At the Stadium of Light, opposition teams are more inclined to sit back, attempt to quieten the crowd, and grow into the game. They want to deny space to Amad and Roberts and play a deeper line that helps negate the pace of Clarke. In other words, they are content to defend their box, whereas teams facing Sunderland at home defend their half. 

Of course, defending your box is A LOT easier when Ross Stewart isn't in it.

How does the home form improve?

I'm not sure it's as simple as just expecting Ross Stewart to single-handedly solve Sunderland's problems at home. He will help, without a doubt, but many of the same problems will remain. 

A major problem for Sunderland at the Stadium of Light has been the midfield. The central midfield area has struggled with consistency and, Corry Evans apart, has looked incredibly vulnerable at times. 

Ross Stewart isn't going to solve that, and it doesn't look like the transfer market will either given the policy of recruiting younger players. The club seem committed to waiting for the likes of Alex Neil, Edouard Michut, Jay Matete and Abdoullah Ba to figure it out. 

Perhaps that's just a consequence of the transfer model we have to accept in the short term in the hope that it pays off in the long-run, but it probably means the Stadium of Light won't be a fortress any time soon, despite Ross Stewart's return.