The stats that show Sunderland may not be as creative as it seems

Sunderland feel increasingly prone to firing blanks in games they dominate. Can the stats help uncover a deeper problem than just a striker one?

All the talk following the goalless draw at Swansea was about whether or not Sunderland have a goalscoring problem, and understandably so.

Tony Mowbray's young side huffed and puffed for 70 minutes against 10 men in South Wales before having to head home with one point when it really should have been three.

Even more damning is that no Sunderland striker that the club actually owned has scored for the Black Cats since January. In fact, no striker has scored for Sunderland at all since April, and that is if you want to describe Joe Gelhardt as a ‘striker,’ which is a push for many.

So, it’s a very valid question: Do Sunderland have a goalscoring problem? Let’s see if the answer lies in the statistics. 

Championship goals scored

Teams	Goals Scored
Ipswich, Leicester	29
Plymouth, Norwich	26
Southampton, Leeds, Sunderland, West Brom	24
Blackburn, Cardiff	22
Middlesbrough, Hull	21
Swansea, Preston	20

Only four teams in the Championship have scored more goals so far this season than Sunderland: Ipswich, Leicester, Plymouth and Norwich. 

From that point of view, then, Sunderland have no problem finding the net. 

In fact, that Sunderland are doing it without a single contribution from a striker suggests there are plenty of goals in this squad and surely offers considerably more cause for optimism than it does concern. 

Sunderland shot generation

Again, Sunderland (228) are right up there when it comes to number of shots. Only three teams this time - Ipswich (249), Leeds (242) and Southampton (237) - have rained more shots on the opposition than Tony Mowbray's troops have. 

That is an average of 15.2 shots per match this season, and that should be enough to win far more matches than you lose. 

However, stats such as these will only ever be an aide to the debate, not the end of it. Lurking beneath these apparently pleasing numbers lies the real story, and it is certainly a little alarming. 

Sunderland shot quality

Remember those impressive goals scored statistics from before? Well we should also observe that four of them have been penalties. 

They have been won fairly, but the point here is that they are not a result of carving through a defence in open play and creating a shooting opportunity naturally. They are more a result of dribbling quality than collective chance creation ability. 

Four penalties is unusually high too. In fact, a sixth of all the penalties scored in the Championship so far this season have been scored by Sunderland. 

More than half the division haven't scored one at all, and the divisional average per team is one. That, then, has bumped Sunderland's goalscoring figures and masked their true creativity in open play. Don't get me wrong, it's a very good quality to have, but you'd prefer to see it aligned with other positives, not helping create an illusion of them. 

We can see that dribbling ability masking it further when we look at another key metric here - average distance of shots. 

If a team is creating quality chances in open play then the average shot distance would be inside the penalty area. Sunderland, though, are one of just eight teams in the Championship whose average shot distance is further than 18 yards. 

Team	Average Shot Distance (yards)
Hull	19.6
Watford	19.4
SUNDERLAND	18.7
Plymouth	18.6
Birmingham	18.6
Millwall	18.3
Huddersfield	18.2
QPR	18.0
Coventry	17.9
Preston	17.6
Rotherham	17.6
Southampton	17.4
Sheffield Wednesday	17.4
Bristol City	17.3
Ipswich	17.2
Stoke	17.2
West Brom	17.2
Swansea	17.2
Norwich	17.0
Middlesbrough	16.8
Leicester City	16.8
Cardiff	16.7
Leeds	16.4
Blackburn	15.9

With the exception of Hull, the rest of the teams with an average shot distance of 18 yards or more are bottom half clubs, which is telling. 

More importantly, Sunderland and Hull share another stat that really highlights how their shot count and goals tallies are reliant not on shooting prowess and chance creation but quality ball carriers. 

Hull (15) and Sunderland (12) have had more shots on goal from free kicks than any other clubs in the Championship. It's not particularly close either, with 21 of the 24 teams not even reaching double figures yet. 

It's a significant statistic as it demonstrates that number of shots on goal is not necessarily a metric for quality of chances. 

Sunderland shooting accuracy

So now the statistics lead us into the crux of Sunderland's problems in front of goal. Because while penalties are boosting the goal count and long-range efforts are helping the shot count, the real issue is that Tony Mowbray's men do not hot the target enough. 

In fact, it will surprise no one that Sunderland are about bang average when it comes to hitting the target in the Championship. Less that a third (31.1%) of the Black Cats' shots trouble the opposition goalkeeper. That is 13th best in the division. 

However, even that is just the starting point of the real problem. We see that when we look at goals per shots on target. 

Team	Goals per Shots on Target
Rotherham	0.45
West Brom	0.44
Preston	0.42
Norwich	0.38
Cardiff	0.36
Bristol City	0.36
Leicester	0.35
Swansea	0.34
Blackburn	0.33
Stoke	0.33
Ipswich	0.32
Plymouth	0.31
Leeds	0.31
Millwall	0.31
Hull	0.30
Birmingham	0.30
Watford	0.29
SUNDERLAND	0.28
Southampton	0.27
Coventry	0.26
QPR	0.24
Huddersfield	0.24
Middlesbrough	0.23
Sheffield Wednesday	0.22

As the table shows, Sunderland are a long way down the list for this metric, and it points towards a conclusion that we probably all knew but couldn't see reflected on the surface of the statistics: Sunderland are not quite as good at creating chances as you might think, and nowhere near as clinical as they need to be. 

Do Sunderland have a striker problem?

Is that a striker problem? Probably not really. They have played a part, certainly, but this is a season-wide problem so far and strikers have not been used enough to carry the bulk of the responsibility for it. 

The truth is more a combination of strikers not being given enough time on the pitch to make a difference and the team not playing to their strengths when they are. 

While undeniable that Sunderland have some quality passers and dribblers, there seems to be as much of an issue with decision making at key moments as anything else. It's definitely hard to remember strikers missing chance after chance this season, isn't it? 

And, ultimately, while Sunderland don't necessarily have a goalscoring problem, it is clear that are some issues that need to be addressed if repeats of the Liberty Stadium frustrations are to be avoided. 

---

READ MORE SUNDERLAND NEWS

• Dan Ballard talks new contract and West Ham interest
• Chris Rigg speaks out after scoring his first Sunderland goal
• Kristjaan Speakman discusses potential financial boost for Sunderland
• EXCLUSIVE: Jack Clarke told he's not leaving Sunderland
• Anthony Patterson assesses Sunderland's top six credentials