'Judge Sunderland after ten games,' they said - so let's judge

Are Sunderland the real deal this season, is it another false dawn, or do we just not know yet?

Sunderland celebrate against Leeds / IMAGO / NurPhoto

Judge after ten games. That was the advice when Sunderland started the season with a four-match winning streak in the Championship. Good advice it was too.

And, here we are. The ten game mark. So, is it time to judge?

The answer there is probably not, and there is a very good reason for that which is lurking in one of the shadowy corners most of us Sunderland fans don’t like looking toward.

We’ll get into that shortly, but let’s start with the obvious causes for optimism. Back when Sunderland paused for the first international break with their 100% record intact, they sat top of the Championship by two points and were the division’s top goalscorers. Nothing there has changed.

Sure, two games have been lost, but neither of them especially poorly and most fans would agree the team could, and should, have taken something from them. An injury-time winner for Plymouth after a late Sunderland equaliser was deeply irritating, and Dan Neil’s reckless error in giving Watford a late penalty when the Black Cats were looking the likelier to grab a winner at Watford even more so.

Of course, you have to balance that with the highly fortuitous 96th-minute equaliser against Leeds, but the point is that Sunderland have shown some real consistency this season. Ten games have been played and in none of them have Regis Le Bris’ men been out of a game.

Another big reason for the ‘judge us after ten games’ caution was the knowledge that two big tests – home games against Middlesbrough and Leeds – were on the horizon. Add Burnley into the mix and it means Sunderland have now played three of the teams most are expecting to make major promotion rivals and taken something from all of them.

The win against Hull on Sunday was another interesting test, as it required a level of maturity to dig in and grind out a win away from home. Again, Sunderland passed with flying colours.

Add in the fact that the defence has kept six clean sheets in ten games, no club have had more goalscorers this season than Sunderland, AND the strikers are scoring, and there is an awful lot to be encouraged about.

And it’s not just the things you can measure, either. Just watching Sunderland this season is an entirely different experience to last. There is an intensity that was there before, distinct patterns of play, a new authority and quiet swagger. It just all feels noticeably different.

Is it enough to make a comprehensive judgement on how the season is going to go, though? Sadly, I don’t think so.

Because, for all everything feels and looks different to last year, if we isolate the first ten games it’s actually not all that different in terms of results.

It’s easy, excruciatingly so at times, to remember what last season became, but the start was hugely impressive. Sunderland battered Southampton 5-0, produced big away performances to beat QPR, Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday, and generally looked like a very slick Championship side capable of mounting a serious promotion push.

Those ten games produced 19 points too, just three shy of the total after the same number of games this season, so we don’t have to go far back at all in our own history to know that starts can be deceiving.

Chris Rigg and Jobe Bellingham - Sunderland / IMAGO / Pro Sports Images

And that’s only the very recent history and rational arguments. We all have a lifetimes of scars and deep-set neurosis from supporting this stupid stupid football club that have hardwired us to not only not trust the dawn, but outright assume it’s a false one.

So while you have to give Regis Le Bris and his young squad all the credit in the world for how they have started this season, it’s just not in our skill set as Sunderland fans to shake the nagging feeling that something is about to go horribly, horribly wrong.

I mean, I remember being sat at the Stadium of Light in August watching Sunderland exert total dominance over Sheffield Wednesday and race into a four-goal lead just after half time. I couldn’t even shake the feeling we might mess it up there until the injury-time board went up so what chance have I realistically got here?

So, to answer my original question here: no, I don’t think now is the time to judge this team.

What I do think it is time to do, though, is enjoy it.

The season might or might not end well, but we have an extremely talented young squad with real likeability, a cerebral tactical turbo-nerd of a manager who can inspire belief again, and a sense that something is building – regardless of when it all comes together.

Maybe it’s another false dawn, I don’t know. But, actually, not knowing is something new in itself, right?