Pavlov's dogs and Sunderland's managerial merry-go-round

We've spent two decades trying to sack our way to success. It's time for a new approach.

In 1897, Ivan Petrovich Pavlov decided to wind up some dogs.

In a series of experiments, Pavlov made sure that his dogs could hear the loud ticking of a metronome each time they were fed. Soon the dogs started to associate the ticking sound with food, and eventually they began to salivate every time they heard the sound. 

A few years earlier, in 1879, James Allen embarked on his own cruel and unusual experiment when he founded Sunderland Association Football Club.  

A century or so later, us Sunderland fans have developed our own form of Pavlovian response. When we hear the final whistle at the end of a defeat, we begin to salivate over the prospect of a managerial sacking. 

And not without reason. 

Towards the end of our most recent spell in the Premier League, a well-timed sacking was a proven tactic to spark a great escape. Then, as we plummeted down the leagues, we sacked a succession of managers who conspired to leave us languishing in the third tier. 

Our managerial hair trigger was grounded in a strange sense of logic, with each sacking delivering a jolt of electricity that brought a dying team back to life. But since Roy Keane - and including caretakers - we've had 24 managers. The number is starling enough, but let's list the names.

There was Ricky Sbragia, Steve Bruce, Eric Black, Martin O'Neill, Paolo Di Canio, Kevin Ball, Gus Poyet, Dick Advocaat, Sam Allardyce, David Moyes, Simon Grayson, Robbie Stockdale, Billy McKinley (I'm not making these up), Chris Coleman, Robbie Stockdale (again), Jack Ross, James Fowler (real person), Phil Parkinson, Derek Trousers (OK, I did make that one up), Andrew Taylor, Lee Johnson, Mike Dodds, Alex Neil, Martin Canning and, currently, Tony Mowbray. 

David Moyes

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It took us 90 years to get through our first 24 managers. That lot took just 14 years. 

And so, we shouldn't be surprised that back-to-back defeats has prompted some to salivate over another potential sacking. Unlike the last few seasons in League One, we're not expected to finish in an automatic promotion place. Defeats are therefore going to be a more regular occurrence, and so today's whispers of 'Mowbray Out' could quickly build to an all-too-familiar crescendo. 

It's time to break the link. Defeats should make us grumpy. Angry, even. They should prompt changes to the line-up, to tactics, to recruitment. But we need to stop associating defeats with regime change. 

If the next 14 years are to be better than the last 14 years, we'll need far fewer than 24 managers through our revolving doors. Over that same period, Leicester and Brighton have had 11 managers each, Wolves and Brentford have had 9. Even Norwich City, a club who have experienced 4 promotions and relegations between the Championship and Premier League since 2008, have had just 10 managers. Every club has their own version of the managerial merry-go-round, but few spin as quickly and chaotically as ours. Events at the Stadium of Light have so closely mirrored those on Downing Street recently that I half expect to see Ricky Sbragia appointed as Secretary of State for Transport.

We've had 14 years of disruption. For the next 3 or 4 years at least, we need stability. And for that to happen, we need a more measured reaction when results inevitably don't go our way.

We'll play the rest of this season with a young, threadbare squad. The Burnley game is a neat summary of how we can expect the season to go. As we saw in the first half, this squad has the potential to play anyone off the park. And as we saw in the second, it's also an inexperienced squad that can be bullied into submission. 

We started the season with realistic expectations. Survival is the goal, and the hope is that end the season optimistic that we're on an upward trajectory.

We've also started the season with more than our fair share of bad luck. Losing a promising manager, then a star striker, then your star striker's back up in a matter of weeks is enough sink a season. But we've kept on keeping on, and remain on track to survive relatively comfortably. 

Our job now is to enjoy the good days, and endure the bad. And when we instinctively begin salivate for the manager's head after a poor run of results, we need to remind ourselves that the dark days of sacking our way to success are over. We're building a positive future, not managing a tumultuous decline. 

It's time for continuity, not chaos. For reflection, not reaction. 

It's time for #PavlovOut.