Could Sunderland sign Ellis Simms on a permanent deal?

Everton striker Ellis Simms has certainly made a positive impression at Sunderland, but what are the chances of the loan deal being made permanent?

Falling in love with loan players hasn’t traditionally ended all that well for Sunderland fans in the past.

Even going as far back as Peter Beagrie and Shay Given, with the glorious exception of Dariusz Kubicki, it feels like it has been an exclusively miserable pursuit.

I think we have all accepted early that Amad Diallo is out of reach given how much Man Utd spent on him, but what about Ellis Simms? Is he a player more in the Jack Clarke mould who could return to Wearside on a permanent deal?

Well, not according to Millwall boss Gary Rowett.

“[Ellis Simms] is a player we tried to sign, he went to Sunderland and although he’s on loan,” Rowett said. “He’s someone you might not be able to buy at this level at that age.”

Is Rowett right in that regard, though? Is Simms going to simply be out of Sunderland’s reach as long as they are a Championship club?

Money or culture?

Rowett’s comments were certainly noteworthy as they come from inside the game, from one of the people who talk to clubs, agents, and attempt to get transfer deals done. It stands to reason that he would know a lot more about the market than we do.

What was interesting, though, was that he didn’t mention why he thinks you can’t buy Ellis Simms as a Championship club. The assumption might be that it is about money, but is it?

There is, after all, some serious money sloshing about in the Championship. A lot of it is parachute payments to the relegated Premier League clubs, and there is a worthy debate to be had about whether that should be allowed to be spent on transfers or not.

However, even taking the relegated teams out of the equation, teams in the Championship do tend to have money for at least one decent transfer fee every summer. Millwall themselves, for example, paid €2million for Zian Flemming last summer.

Then there are clubs reinvesting from selling top players, with the most recent example of that being Hull City. They sold Keane Lewis-Potter to Brentford for a reported £16million and put that money back into their squad with signings. 

So there probably doesn’t look like any financial reason why Sunderland couldn’t sign Ellis Simms on a permanent deal, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be an easy deal to do.

What might Ellis Simms cost?

There is a bit of déjà vu with Ellis Simms, isn’t there? A striker on-loan from Everton doing well for Sunderland. It’s reminiscent of Nathan Broadhead last summer, and we all know how that worked out.

If Everton want to sell him, there is no reason why Simms would break the bank. Simms’ record doesn’t demand it in truth. At the time of writing, he has just 22 career goals to his name and only his five so far for Sunderland have been at Championship level.

There is something of a stigma attached to strikers, even prolific ones, stepping into the Premier League after performing well in the Championship. They can command a huge fee, but only after something a bit special. Adam Armstrong, for example, scored 28 goals in 40 Championship appearances for Blackburn before Southampton paid £15million for him, and it was after two full seasons of delivering.

Simms, obviously, is not going to be at that level this season, and Everton probably need him to be to either convince them to give him a fair chance themselves or demand a huge fee for him.

Like Broadhead, all the signs point towards Everton not really thinking that much of him either. Simms was with Everton for their pre-season tour of the US but, in all honesty, he shouldn’t have really bothered.

He was an unused substitute in the first game against Arsenal despite 11 others being used. Simms also didn’t feature in their 4-0 defeat to Minnesota United either. It was a similar story when Everton got back to England, with Simms again not featuring against Blackpool and Dinamo Kyiv.

It appears that Everton don’t exactly consider him to be banging on the door of the first team, so will a good season in the Championship really change that much for them?

Simms is also not tied down to a particularly long contract. By the time he returns to Everton this summer, he will have one-year left on his current deal and will be six months away from his 23rd birthday.

All things being equal, it’s hard to make a case for Simms commanding a huge and unaffordable transfer fee this summer.

So what might stop Sunderland signing Simms permanently?

The problem is that, as we know, all things are not equal in football. The Premier League clubs hold the financial power and the prestige, and they use it to stockpile young talent.

We got an annoyingly close look at that culture last summer, and with Everton too. Nathan Broadhead had a decent season in League One for Sunderland and wasn’t going to make the grade with Everton. Like Simms, they didn’t give him so much as a sniff in pre-season and, at the age of 24, he was not an especially young player either with bags of unlocked potential. He had just one year left on his contract too.

And yet, they still extended his deal and looked for Championship loan suitors. There was only one purpose in that, of course: Hope he catches fire, has a great season, and then hold an auction for his services to get a big fee for him.

If they are willing to still play that game with a 24-year-old who had never done it outside of League One, they will definitely do it with a younger player who has some Championship goals to his name. They have already showed their hand there.

That, sadly, is much more likely to be what Gary Rowett was referring to when he said clubs at Championship level are ‘not able’ to sign players like Ellis Simms. It was almost certainly a reference to the culture at Premier League clubs, not the financial capabilities of Championship ones.

Could Sunderland sign Ellis Simms permanently?

It’s probably worth sticking this one in the ‘possibly but unlikely’ category. Sunderland have been clever with their signings and have got players out of Premier League clubs that no one else thought were available.

Dennis Cirkin and Aji Alese are examples of that, although they probably have some serious clauses in the deals in terms of buy-back options, sell-on percentages, and god knows what else. After all, it’s the Premier League clubs who have the power and they are not going to just give it away.

Jack Clarke signing on a permanent deal is another positive sign. Tottenham had paid a substantial fee for him but were still willing to do a deal with Sunderland. I’d wager many a Championship manager considered Clarke too and thought it just not doable before Sunderland did it.

Sadly, though, there are no signs that Everton are open to doing those kinds of deals right now. Tottenham’s policy seems to be to allow young players to move on, become massive assets elsewhere and then take their cut of the profit. It looks like Everton want to keep full control of the asset themselves for as long as possible.

The only real gamechanger could be Simms himself. If he wants to back himself and leave, a little like Cirkin did, then Everton will be forced into doing business this summer. I guess we just have to wait and see on that one. 

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