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Which USWNT Player is Most Likely to Win the Women's Ballon d'Or?

A closer look at the performances of the five Americans nominated for the prestigious award, and how the voting committee may rank view their seasons.

Theo Lloyd-Hughes

[US, Mexico & Canada customers only] Jul 28, 2024; Marseille, France; USA players Sophia Smith , Mallory Swanson and Trinity Rodman celebrate a goal against Germany n a Group B match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Orange Velodrome. Mandatory Credit: Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters via Imagn Images
[US, Mexico & Canada customers only] Jul 28, 2024; Marseille, France; USA players Sophia Smith , Mallory Swanson and Trinity Rodman celebrate a goal against Germany n a Group B match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Orange Velodrome. Mandatory Credit: Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters via Imagn Images / Reuters-Imagn Images

On Monday night at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris, France, many of the soccer world’s most esteemed names will attend the 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony.

Of course, many of the present greats in the women’s game will be absent. That’s because the
awards will be handed out during a women’s FIFA international window. 

The fact France Football and UEFA decided to host the 68th edition of the prestigious ceremony without many of the women’s nominees has frustrated many. 

“It's really disappointing. It's a moment to celebrate women's football. It would be really helpful in the future if it was organized on a different date" England manager Sarina Wiegman told the media on Monday. 

Missing from the event will be the five-player cohort of U.S. women’s national team players that are nominated: Alyssa Naeher, Mal Swanson (both Chicago Red Stars), Lindsey Horan (Lyon), Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit), and Sophia Smith (Portland Thorns). 

The USA is preparing for a friendly against Argentina on Wednesday night in Louisville, Kentucky. 

62 years after the first-ever men’s Ballon d’Or, the Ballon d'Or Féminin was added in 2018. In 2019, Megan Rapinoe became the first and only American to ever take home the trophy. 

This award is judged on club and international performances over the European timeframe of a soccer season, from Aug. 1, 2023, to July 31, 2024. For players based in the NWSL, this means it splits that period into two halves of two separate seasons. 

Let’s take a look which USA players are most likely to win on Monday in Paris: 

6: Naomi Girma 

You’re probably thinking, what is Naomi Girma doing on this list? Yes, the San Diego Wave center-back was not nominated for the 2024 Ballon d’Or and thus cannot take home the award. But it’s worth mentioning her name because she has arguably been the USA’s best player over the past year. 

Girma was imperious during the 2024 Paris Olympics, guiding the USA through the knockout stages with three clean sheets in consecutive 1-0 wins. She was the only outfield player to play every minute of that tournament. At club level, San Diego topped the NWSL standings with the second-best defensive record in the league too.

The 24-year-old future captain of the USWNT is a reminder that the Ballon d’Or shortlist committee is imperfect. There is no more worthy player in the USA than Girma. 

5: Alyssa Naeher

While Girma’s omission stings, the inclusion of goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher was a welcome surprise. With no Yashin Trophy (goalkeeper of the year) for the women, it’s very hard for shot-stoppers in the women’s game to get the recognition they deserve. 

Naeher has had an extraordinary year. Even as the USA were knocked out of the 2023 World Cup, she showed up in a penalty shootout against Sweden by saving one kick and converting from the spot herself. 

The 36-year-old, whose nickname is ‘Uncle’, continued her penalty heroics in the 2024 W Gold Cup, saving three of Canada’s kicks in the semifinal. And then, in Paris this past summer, she made breathtaking saves to keep the USA in tight matches. 

Unfortunately for Naeher, there has never been a goalkeeper in the final three for the Ballon d’Or and it would be extremely surprising to see her awarded the prize. 

4: Lindsey Horan

In some ways, USA captain Lindsey Horan has an advantage on the rest of her countrywomen because she plays her soccer in Europe. With Lyon, the midfielder won the D1 Arkema league title, the French cup, and finished runner-up in the Champions League. None of the other USA players have a club record like that in this window. 

However, based on past awards, the Ballon d’Or committee is likely to value international performances over club level. Even with another big year for Lyon, Horan’s middling performances at the Paris Olympics may hold her back from taking home the award. 

It is worth mentioning that Horan scored the winning goal in the W Gold Cup final against Brazil. And captaining a side to a gold medal is a highly impressive feat too. 

3: Trinity Rodman 

Even though the USA’s gold medal in Paris was in large part down to an obstinate defensive effort, it’s impossible not to see their front three, nicknamed ‘Triple Espresso’, as the most high-profile players on the team. 

Rodman is the most well-rounded of the USA’s incredible forward line, providing relentless energy, pressing and plenty of defensive cover. She scored the USA’s most eye-catching goal, a stunning left-footed curling shot to beat Japan 1-0 in the quarterfinals. And, she played 547 minutes at the Paris Olympics, the third most for an American outfield player. 

The case against Rodman is her form prior to the Paris Olympics. She failed to score for the USA in her first 10 matches of 2024, and that was coming off a disappointing 2023 where she scored just four times for her country. An under par 2023 with the Washington Spirit has been followed up by a career best 2024, but despite her tricks, skills and tenacity, the committee may favor another member of ‘Triple Espresso’. 

2: Mal Swanson 

Score the winning goal in a major international tournament final and you will find your way onto the Ballon d’Or list. 

Swanson’s dribble and slipped finish at the Parc des Princes to lift the USA to a 1-0 win over Brazil may be her defining moment of the year. That goal was also her fourth of the Paris Olympics, which made her the USA’s top goalscorer and the second to Marie-Antoinette Katoto in the golden boot. 

A patella tear injury curtailed her 2023 World Cup and NWSL season. An emphatic return to club action in 2024 has seen Chicago go from bottom of the standings to sixth place, with Swanson contributing 11 goal involvements. 

The 26-year-old has a good chance of making the final three shortlist, but will need to have her headline-grabbing exploits in Paris boost her chances of taking home the award. 

1: Sophia Smith 

While form for Rodman and injuries for Swanson could affect their ability to take home the Ballon d’Or, Smith’s consistency could well be the reason she pips her teammates to the trophy. 

Smith’s 20 appearances and nine goals for the USA in 2024 is more than any other attacking player on the team. Just like Swanson and Rodman, she had a major moment in the knockout stages of the Paris Olympics when scored the winning goal against Germany in the semifinals. 

For the Portland Thorns, who have been a top four team in the NWSL the past two seasons, Smith has been talismanic for her club despite ankle injuries keeping her off the pitch for short periods. Across 1,503 minutes she has 17 goal contributions in the NWSL in 2024 (a goal or an assist every 88 minutes), which is the third-most of any player in the league. 

The 24-year-old has the ideal combination of consistency, technical quality, endorsements and star power within the international game to make her the most likely USWNT player to win the Ballon d’Or. 

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Theo Lloyd-Hughes
THEO LLOYD-HUGHES

Theo Lloyd-Hughes is a writer for Sports Illustrated Soccer based in the Southern United States. Originally from England, he can often be found in a press box across the NWSL or at international matches featuring the USWNT and other Concacaf nations.

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