Tennessee vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, December 14th

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Tennessee guard Chaz Lanier (2) during a college basketball game between Tennessee and Syracuse held at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024. / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 1 team in the country puts its undefeated record on the line on Saturday on the road to face a promising Illinois team.

Tennessee has rolled through its early schedule to attain the top ranking in the AP Poll, but will face a stiff test in Illinois, who have a high octane offense and will look to score a signature win to add to its ledger. 

The Vols are a slight favorite with a budding offense and an elite defense, but how will it handle the likes of freshman Kasparas Jakucionis? Let’s break it down with our full betting preview. 

Tennessee vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Tennessee: -3.5 (-102)
• Illinois: +3.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: -154
• Illinois: +128

Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Illinois How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 14th
• Game Time: 5:30 PM EST
• Venue: State Farm Center
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Tennessee Record: 9-0
• Illinois Record: 7-2

Tennessee vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Chaz Lanier: The North Florida transfer has been an exciting addition to the Vols, shooting 48% from deep on a high rate while playing elite defense in the backcourt. He has scored at least 18 points in five straight games and will face an Illinois defense that has been elite on the defensive side of the floor. 

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman has been elite this season, in control of pick-and-rolls and knockdown from beyond the arc at over 44%. The 6’6” guard will have to deal with an elite Tennessee defense that has shut down opposing offenses all season, but can he navigate the half court to open up the perimeter for the rest of the offense to get going from deep?

Tennessee vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

This will be the second true road game of the season for the Vols, so some growing pains are to be expected for the team that holds the nation’s longest winning streak, but I do side with the No. 1 ranked team in the land to score an impressive victory. 

The Illinois defense doesn’t pressure the ball much, outside the top 300 in turnover percentage according to KenPom, which can alleviate some concerns about Tennessee's shaky ball handling that is below the national average in turnover percentage. Further, the team has continued to stretch its range to focus more on three-point shooting, but is still elite inside, tops in the country in two-point field goal percentage (63%). Overall, the team is third in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

The Vols offense is balanced and can win in multiple areas whereas the Fighting Illini offense is a bit more reliant on Jakucionis’s shot creation for himself and others. The team is lacking a ton of pop from the perimeter, hovering around the national average in three-point percentage despite shooting it at a top 10 rate in the country. Against an elite Tennessee interior defense, Brad Underwood’s group must get going from distance to stay in this one. 

I’m going to trust the Vols defense that is top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed, but also top 50 in turnover percentage. The team will pressure the freshman Jakucionis into too many mistakes in this one. In Illinois’ two losses this season, the team posted above its season average in turnover percentage, and this is the just about the most turnover-driven defense the team has faced this season (Tennessee is decimal points behind Arkansas in terms of TO%). 

I’ll lay the small number on the road with Tennessee. 

PICK: Tennessee -3.5

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