Skip to main content

Miami Open preview: Matches, players and storylines to watch

Analyzing the Miami Open draws: What's the point of Miami and Indian Wells back to back? And the best matches to watch as the top 32 seeds get underway on Thursday and Friday.

A reader asked me last week: What's the point of having two joint mandatory events like Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back? How can we get excited for the latter? It's a fair question. The draws are remarkably similar—the only big name missing from this week's Miami Open is Roger Federer—and the rhythm of the two tournaments can mirror each other. The early rounds will move along slowly in the early days until the top 32 seeds get underway on Thursday and Friday.

467300442.jpg
466617620_10.jpg
466623924_10.jpg
466627830_10.jpg
466559766_10.jpg
466561000_10.jpg
466600568_10.jpg
466533950_10.jpg
466549892_10.jpg
466600752_10.jpg
466447636_10.jpg
466456218_10.jpg
466456234_10.jpg
466463006_10.jpg
466348030_10.jpg
466355192_10.jpg
466421500_10.jpg
466440158_10.jpg
466503510_10.jpg
466166914_10.jpg
466236690_10.jpg
466262914_10.jpg
466264132_10.jpg
466278136_10.jpg
466156548_10.jpg
466156756_10.jpg
466157294_10.jpg
466166320_10.jpg
465915584_10.jpg
465917128_10.jpg
466551212_10_0.jpg
466554706_10.jpg
466534846_10.jpg
466106872_10_0.jpg
466166338_10_0.jpg
466166712_10.jpg
466447608_10.jpg
466015358_10.jpg
466166762_10.jpg
465908612_10.jpg
466658878_10.jpg
466711566_10.jpg
466720846_10.jpg
466654018_10.jpg
466657430_10.jpg
466657704_10.jpg
466628398_10.jpg
466641302_10.jpg
466641504_10.jpg
466628040_10.jpg
466789446_10.jpg
466790376_10.jpg
466916036_10.jpg
466725612_10.jpg
466746750_10.jpg
466769668_10.jpg
466769964_10.jpg
467298056.jpg
467099572_10.jpg
467094620_10.jpg
467081708_10.jpg
467300228.jpg
467061394_10.jpg
467300340.jpg
467058978_10.jpg
467185614_10.jpg
467173986_10.jpg
467168050_10.jpg
467165142_10.jpg
466447858_10_0.jpg

But the Miami Open is not a clone of Indian Wells. To wit: Rafael Nadal has won Indian Wells three times in his career yet he has never won in Miami. Maria Sharapova is in the same boat, with two Indian Wells titles but still chasing her first in Miami, an odd stat considering she spent much of her life training in Florida. The reverse is true for Andy Murray: The Brit has made an Indian Wells final just once but has won Miami twice. 

The explanation for it all? Some of it turns on the conditions. Indian Wells is dry and arid, which combined with a slow hard court means a high bouncing ball that can play into some players' strengths. Miami is heavy and humid and the balls stay lower. The vibe of Miami is far more lively and the humidity is a tough test for players. Some players simply check out mentally after Indian Wells, knowing that they're just a week away from the tour moving to clay.

This year, the Miami Open will see the return of Juan Martin del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Del Potro withdrew from the singles competition in Indian Wells, still unsure about his fitness, while No. 13 Tsonga will be playing his first tournament since Davis Cup last year. Gael Monfils is also back in action. 

But as much as things change, some things stay the same. In a random bout of luck, Serena's first two opponents could be the same as her two in Indian Wells. She'll open against the slicing and dicing Monica Niculescu, who troubled her in Indian Wells, in her opening round. She could then play No. 32 Zarina Diyas in the third round. Serena once again finds herself in the top half of the draw with No. 3 Simona Halep. The two were slated for a big semifinal showdown last week before Serena withdrew with a knee injury

Five takeaways from the draws

[Complete men's draw] [Complete women's draw]

Men's draw: With Federer skipping Miami, Nadal gets the No. 2 seed behind defending champion Novak Djokovic, who is in the top half with KeiNishikori, MilosRaonic and David Ferrer. Nadal leads the bottom half with Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych. Here are the projected quarterfinals: Djokovic-Ferrer, Nishikori-Raonic, Nadal-Berdych and Murray-Wawrinka.

Indian Wells Mailbag: Dimitrov's red face, Serena's return and more

Early men's matches to watch: Del Potro plays Vasek Pospisil in the first round and the winner will play No. 9 seed Grigor Dimitrov. It's another potentially tough draw for Dimitrov, who had to play Nick Kyrgios in the second round in Indian Wells. Wawrinka could open against the surging Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, Jack Sock could get a shot at No. 21 seed Fabio Fognini in the second round and Murray could start his Miami campaign against Donald Young. 

Women's draw: Two-time defending champion Serena is the top seed and the biggest question is whether she's fit to play after pulling out of Indian Wells with a right knee injury. The most dangerous women in her quarter of the draw are Garbine Muguruza, Sabine Lisicki and Ana Ivanovic, with Halep looming in the semifinals. The bottom half of the draw is led by Sharapova, with Caroline Wozniacki, Agnieszka Radwanska and Ekaterina Makarova as the other top seeds. Here are the projected quarterfinals: Serena-Ivanovic, Halep-Eugenie Bouchard, Radwanska-Wozniacki, Sharapova-Makarova.

Early women's matches to watch: Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens could face off in the second round if Stephens wins her first round match. Indian Wells finalist Jelena Jankovic could open against Victoria Azarenka in the second round. Venus Williams returns to action after skipping Indian Wells and could face compatriot CoCo Vandeweghe in the second round. And Simona Halep could open against Nicole Vaidisova, who received a wildcard into the main draw. 

Player to watch: Bouchard has played just three tournaments in 2015—The Australian Open, Antwerp and Indian Wells—and she has yet to beat a player ranked higher than No. 36. There are also questions about her fitness after she sustained an abdominal injury in her loss to qualifier Lesia Tsurenko last week. She could play Keys or Stephens on her way into the quarterfinals, where she could face Halep. 

GALLERY: NEW AND OLD ON-COURT FASHION IN INDIAN WELLS

466529256.jpg
AP243545738517.jpg
466549934.jpg
466237248.jpg
466551212_10.jpg
466551600_10.jpg
466521402_10.jpg
466534880_10.jpg
466546188_10.jpg
466420316_10.jpg
466427198_10.jpg
466447858_10.jpg
466456226_10.jpg
466355766_10.jpg
466417518_10.jpg
466166338_10.jpg
466106872_10.jpg
466133678_10.jpg
466167928_10.jpg
466421494_10.jpg
466459968_10.jpg
466558594_10.jpg
466262436_10.jpg
466440284_10.jpg
466561162.jpg