What the Future Holds for Novak Djokovic, Serena and Roger Federer

Jon Wertheim answers this in his latest mailbag, plus the value of coaches in the sport and whether there are inconsistencies in how players are disciplined for on-court antics.

PARIS — As it is written, Wednesday is Mailbag Day. If you didn’t catch it, here are some bleary-eyed thoughts on the latest Rafael Nadal–Novak Djokovic clash from Tuesday.

And now, onward …

What’s next for Djokovic?

Roland Garros was Djokovic’s first Grand Slam of 2022 after he missed the Australian Open due to vaccination issues.  :: Michel Euler/Associated Press

Jon,

It will have been a year now since Djokovic has won a major. He has changed coaches. He has the whole COVID mess, which has clearly affected him. His confidence doesn’t seem fully back. What’s next for him?

Donna
Pennsylvania

There was a moment during Tuesday’s quarterfinal match that crystalized Djokovic for me. Nadal brushed Djokovic in the third set to go up 2 sets to 1. The crowd was rabidly against Djokovic. He probably should have lost the one set where he prevailed. Best-case scenario, Djokovic was going to have to go five sets, a place he hasn’t been in 2022. And it’s against Nadal, with no foot injury. On clay. At Roland Garros. And still, there was a palpable sense Djokovic could easily win the match. Respect.

What’s next for Djokovic? Short answer: Wimbledon, the event he won in 2021 and for which I would still make him the favorite even if he failed to defend in Paris. In time, when we tell the Djokovic story, this will be a remarkable 12-month interregnum. When he left Wimbledon in ’21 in a three-way tie with Nadal and Roger Federer with 20 Grand Slam titles, he was the youngest of the Big Three. By every investment standard—momentum, number of remaining “draws,” head-to-head records—he was where the smart money resides. Then, he lost in the U.S. Open final and to miss out on the calendar Grand Slam. He missed this year’s Australian Open for preventable reasons, an event won by Nadal. After an initially choppy reentry into the workforce, he fell in Paris against Nadal.

These tennis plots …

Yet, right now, I would buy Djokovic on the dip. Like, load up on Djokovic. After dusting off the rust—or the clay-court tennis equivalent—he suddenly went back to playing celestial tennis. He won Rome and his first four matches here without dropping a set. Losing to 13-time French Open winner Nadal on clay—winning a set he should have lost and losing a set he should have won—is no shame. His timing is back. His conditioning appears to be back. He has “only” just turned 35. Look at the Wimbledon draws over the past decade and you will not find a more successful player. Then come the hard courts. Bear in mind the man who beat Djokovic in 2021, Russia’s Daniil Medvedev, will have been banned from Wimbledon and contend with his own “reentering the workforce” issues.

Djokovic will be fine.

When will we see Serena, Federer return?

Serena Williams and Roger Federer have yet to play a match in 2022.  :: Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Hi, Jon,

Do you remember the man who placed a bet about Roger Federer winning 20 Grand Slams by 2020? As we all know, he was right. Do you know of a similar bet concerning Nadal? Surely somebody believed in 22 Grand Slams in 2022. It seems Rafa may match or even surpass Serena. Unbelievable.

Regards,
L. Pereira
B.C., Canada

Right on. If you exist, reveal yourself. As I look on, that bet ain’t looking bad.

Jon,

Are Serena and Fed going to announce that they’re retired? Or are they just gonna pretend that they’re still active players? It’s been at least a year. They’re not coming back.

P.

I would caution against bracketing both 40-year-olds together. Federer says he will come back. He posts videos of his workouts. We know he is rehabbing. We still do not yet know if he will return in 2022, but he is committed to making sure he has not played his last match.

Serena is more of a mystery. She is a few weeks younger than Federer. In playing best-of-three matches, she has less conditioning and durability concerns. But by all accounts she has not been playing much these past 11 months.

My take: Why should they or why would they retire? What do they have to gain by closing the window? Leaving aside that financial interests—which are not insignificant, as many deals are contingent upon players actually playing or being active—what is the incentive to announce they are done? Even if they feel like they can’t play right now but are open to the possibility they might return, why not stay active?

Signs, signs, everywhere signs

Jon,

Please shed some light on the tagline that Roland Garros is promoting this year. Have they figured out how to switch a court from tennis to pickleball and back? Is there some new, classier way to change the rules of a game? I know those must be wrong, but can’t sort out what is intended by the tagline: “Move the lines with style.” I know that a few billion things are more important, but still, it is a mystery.

John Campbell, Portland, Oregon

So there are two taglines. The one you reference, and another that is emblazoned on the deck of the main stadium—something along the lines of victory belonging to the most persistent. It’s all rather derivative of Wimbledon quoting Kipling’s poem, If. Whatever. Beats Signage.

Pickleball has yet to bless Europe. The cognate is Padel. I hear Djokovic’s father is among the converts.

Does the punishment fit the crime?

Jon,

Why did neither Rublev or Begu get defaulted? They made accidental mistakes as Novak did but not as severe. Novak hitting the line judge in the throat was a mistake at the US Open. The line judge got hurt. I understand actions have consequences. If Rublev’s ball hit the French Open staff member instead of hitting his hat would he have been ejected from the tournament? Begu’s racquet hit a child who started crying. Nowadays when players hit balls or throw racquets out of anger which hurt fans they give the fans racquets or take photos with them to try to save face. Do the ATP and WTA look at a players’ actions after the fact in determining if they suspend them for future tournaments and what fine the players have to pay?

Sunny S.
Philadelphia

The short answer: This resembles an old line from criminal law that differentiates between an attempted act and actually carrying it out. Had either player’s bad act actually resulted in physical contact, both players would have been bounced. The corollary: Had Djokovic not struck the lineswoman in the neck and instead missed her by inches, he might have 21 major titles.

It’s easy how this could be seen as unfair and arbitrary, but I struggle to come up with a better differentiator, other than automatic default for this kind of recklessness. Djokovic fans were all over this, citing—as fans do—hypocrisy and double standards. Can’t say I blame them.

Coaches, on or off demand?

Jon,

By now people have pointed out that Tsonga did indeed win the 1st set in a tie-break. And he didn't get hurt until the last game before the final tie-break! Sad. Had to look up "verkakte"-- that's a keeper!

Darlene, Toronto

New definition of verkakte: the uncle—and longtime mentor—of a star who now coaches a younger ascending player. That player and aforementioned star meet in the fourth round of a major. The uncle is understandably conflicted. He announces he is unlikely to attend the match unless he can produce a conventional ticket. Then he shows up, sitting in the best seat in the house behind the baseline. That is verkakte.

Jon,

I was surprised by Patrick Mouratoglou’s comment after Simona Halep lost. How important do you think a tennis coach is? And what about the players who don’t have coaches?

Martin E.
Miami

(Let’s save Patrick and Simona for another time, though this topic has generated much chatter and concern in tennis’s version of the school cafeteria.)

How important are coaches? Important enough that players need them, but ultimately are an accoutrement. They do not coach during the match—they’re not supposed to, anyway. And while their motivation and preparation techniques are important, the players are ultimately hitting the damn ball and managing the pressure. “Two percent,” says a Hall of Fame player just now.

As for the players without coaches, Emma Raducanu may top the list, but a number of players are seeking to solidify their coaching arrangements. Denis Shapovalov is among them. (He and Jamie Delgado quietly parted ways before Rome.) Some players need coaches more than others. We wish there were a way to quantify—a coach is good for +/- extra wins per season—but, as with most businesses, it’s hard to see the benefits when it is constantly addressing staffing needs at the expense of time devoted to the core product. Speaking of Raducanu, her hometown reception at Wimbledon will be something to watch.

The fans in the stands

Jon,

WTF? So, yesterday NBC has exclusive rights to the tennis (so obviously TTC can’t show anything live) and they show a tape-delayed repeat of the Swiatek match which was already shown live on TTC. Then they showed part of the previous day Nadal-Aliassime match rather than the Medvedev-Cilic match which was currently being played LIVE!!! WTF???? If they are expecting fans to be taken in by this extortion to buy Peacock streaming, they are sorely mistaken. Is there any other sport that treats its fans this way??? Thank God my favorite tennis player hardly plays these days. I would have been livid if this was going on during Federer’s prime.

Michelle

How come nobody is watching Fernandez match? Women’s tennis at a new low.

@winkmclaughlin

Here’s the problem. I was courtside for that match. The upper deck was packed. The fat-cat seats were vacant, and that is sadly what is seen on TV. It looks like a ghost town for a women’s quarterfinal, when in fact there are 10,000 fans in the house.

More of your mail

Jon,

Could you please ask whoever is anchoring the TC desk in Paris to say “Whoop, there it is” when throwing the broadcast to the people in the Whoop broadcast booth? Thanks.

P. R.

Trust me. That happened on Day 1.

Jon,

If a player makes a lot of mistakes while playing Jabeur is that considered an Ons-forced error?

Chris C.
Austin, Texas

“Come back Tuesday. We have a slot. Give me a tight 10 minutes.”

Jon,

Is there any moment of any day where a tennis agent doesn’t dress like a tennis agent? It’s always crazy to me when they cut to a player box and there’s the one dork in hipster shades, a button down and a blue blazer.

@jleartv

Sometimes you’re allowed to accessorize with a leather binder.

Enjoy the final weekend, everyone!