Evaluating End-of-Year Events and the Best Young American Players

Making sense of a buzz-less end-of-year tennis schedule, and making predictions for the U.S. youth movement on the men’s side in 2024.

Hey, everyone. Let’s get right to the questions

Jon,

I consider myself a pretty hardcore tennis fan. I remember where I was when Sampras puked in the flower pots; the score from Stan’s French Open win over Djoker is my PIN. But I have to confess that aside from about 27 minutes of Laver Cup, I haven’t watched any tennis since the U.S. Open ended. And this isn’t unusual for me. Part of it is that the late-season tournaments are often indoors and the court is painted weird colors, but also the tournaments seem inconsequential since they’re not building up to a major.

Does this mean the tennis season is just too freaking long? Or am I just a casual fan? Tell me the truth—I can handle it.

P.

• “Tennis: the season is too long.”

It doesn’t make for much of a catchphrase. But it’s a sentiment in heavy rotation lately. I hear it from you guys. I hear it from colleagues. Candidly, I see the recent dip in reader mail and tennis chatter on social media. We play this major that ends in the first half of September. And then … the sport plods on.

Glass half empty? The fall stakes are comparatively minimal. The players openly complain about fatigue. The events are held on surfaces—usually indoor hard courts—on which no majors are played, itself an indication that Q4, as it were, resists serious treatment. Also note how little predictive value there is. I’d like to see hard, weighted data here. But time and again players who crush it in the fall can’t carry it over—Caroline Garcia is a name that springs to mind—further adding to the feel that autumn brings exos-with-ranking points.

More generously? The fall—once called the “silly season”—is full of intrigue and quirk suited for the hardcore fan. Gaël Monfils is winning titles. So is Ben Shelton half a world away. Players like Kateřina Siniaková are winning finals 7–6 in the third. Players like Shintaro Mochizuki emerge as intriguing. Intriguing players like Arthur Fils (more on him below) emerge as potential stars. It’s great that so many promoters worldwide want to stage tennis tournaments. It’s great the sport is heading to new markets and is so relentlessly global. It’s great that players can pick up prize money and points (and appease sponsors) so deep into the season. And we do have the ATP and WTA year-end shebangs approaching.

But to your point … you are not a casual fan. (I had to look it up, Stanislas beat Djokovic: 4–6, 6–4, 6–3, 6–4. That’s a hell of a long PIN number.) The dirty secret: The stalwarts tend to struggle between the U.S. Open and the Australian Open.

Shelton enjoyed a breakout 2023 season, capped by his semifinals run in the U.S. Open :: Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

Jon, give us your predictions for the American men for 2024. A year from now, who are the top five players?

Charles, NYC

• I assume this means “list and rank the top five Americans in 2024,” not “which Americans will be in the ATP’s top five in 2024.” The usual caveats apply. 1. Injuries are the great externality. 2. While recognizing that predictions and speculation are essential to the experience of being a sports fan, you seldom come out good playing futurist. That disclaimer out of the way, I’ll say:

1. Taylor Fritz: Remains a mystery. The game is there. The work ethic is there. The professionalism is there. The big results in the big events still prove elusive. But we’re still holders, if not buyers.

2. Ben Shelton: So much to like. And there’s a sense he’s still clawing his way out of the egg. Yes, history tells us to beware of the sophomore slump. But he’s already in the top 15. And note how few points he is defending from February through August.

3. Sebastian Korda: The game is so solid. Now for the durability …

4. Frances Tiafoe: Seems to have stagnated a bit since cracking the top 10. But he’s still in his fat prime years.

5. Tommy Paul. It’s unclear what the ceiling is here. But any player this athletic will have a place in the upper echelon.

Jon, here’s a question I bet you have never gotten. My son (college age) loves tennis and mentioned that he might want to become a tennis agent as a career. Anything you can recommend I tell him? How does one even become a tennis agent?

Anonymous

• This, of course, invites jokes. But the simple answer: find a client. We can debate whether this is a deficiency or a virtue, but there are few barriers to entry. No legal degree required. Unlike other sports, there is no licensing exam. There are lawyers who are agents. There are also former players who have far less formal education. There are former college players who could warm up their clients in a pinch. There are agents who have never touched a racket. What do they all have in common? They represent a player. (Otherwise they are prospective agents.)

What to tell your son? I might start with two caveats. I think most agents would back me up here in asserting that it’s not as glamorous as it looks. We see agents in players’ boxes at the U.S. Open flanked by celebrities. Or at dinners and parties after titles. Or traveling to client appearances. (Remind me to tell you a story about a Sports Illustrated swimsuit shoot.) We don’t see the agents booking flights for clients and going over picayune deal points and crafting statements when their clients pull out of tournaments with injuries or setting expectations for unrealistic parents. If you get in this game, get ready to roll up your sleeves. Not just literally, the preferred look of agents (the males, anyway). But figuratively. The job entails much more than watching tennis and hugging your players after they win a major.

As for the second caveat, note the plural in the previous sentence. It really is a volume game. In the NBA—our favorite point of comparison—agents take a maximum 4% commission; median salaries are approaching $10 million. In tennis, agents tend not to touch prize money. They get a sliver—anywhere from 10 to 20% depending on a player’s leverage—of endorsements and exos. If Nadal or Djokovic or Federer or Serena is your client, life is good. Otherwise, it can be tough. There are plenty of prominent players—with agents—who won’t sniff $1 million in offcourt income. Even if they do, an agent’s annual travel and expenses can easily approach $100,000—all those flights and hotels and meals and leather-bound briefcases. If you’re going to succeed, you really need a full roster of clients, not just one or two.

My fallback job advice across the board: If you simply cannot imagine another line of work, go for it. Shoot your shot in your 20s. Attempt your moon shot. But go in with eyes wide open. Again, maybe consider sports in addition to tennis. I sometimes tell people about Jeff Schwartz, whom I first met when he was in tennis representing Pete Sampras, Marcelo Ríos and Martina Hingis, among others. About 20 years ago, he pivoted to basketball. He now has dozens of clients and last year alone, negotiated more than half a billion in NBA contracts. A little back-of-the-envelope math suggests it was, financially anyway, a wise career move.

Let sport be sport. My goodness, you want to make everything political.

@epaminondas221

• Fair. I would agree that we spend a lot of time (too much time?) on macro issues. Some of this is a reflection of the mail and social media chatter. Yes, this can be a self-perpetuating cycle, but more readers tend to write in about Saudi Arabia, sports gambling, tennis economics and Cincy versus Charlotte (and Adderall) than they do Elena Rybakina’s match results or Jannik Sinner’s quiet ascent. Some of this is my personal tropism. I’m drawn to sports-as-prism and the intersection with economics, psychology, the law and politics. Sports was once exiled to “the toy department,” a diversion from serious concern. Slowly, the world has come around to realize what an important force it is and how separating it from the rest of society is folly.

Writing this as Fils beat up Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis at European Open and set to play Bublik in the final. The kid is good. If he wins, he could jump to the top 35. I’m excited. Isn’t he the only under-20 player in the top 50? Granted, Alcaraz won a slam at 19. Can Fils reach the same rarefied stratosphere that Carlos reached and Shelton is on the verge of getting to? Does he have the game, the ability, work ethic and desire and the temperament to get there? Too soon to say?

VK

• Have we, as a tennis nation, made enough of the fact that we have a Monfils and Fils, both from the same country, one winding down his career, the other gaining altitude? Let’s go easy on comparing Arthur Fils to Alcaraz. But there’s a lot of momentum. He’s already a top-40 player and doesn’t turn 20 until after Roland Garros 2024.

Disclosure: I have seen him play live twice. And he has lost both matches. But he’s a box office player who, like his buddy and peer Shelton, has so many gifts. Power, speed, an A-list serve. Now he just needs to blend his talents with nuance and guile. That is, Artie Fils could use some—wait for it—artifice. And with that dad joke, I am out.