The Remarkable Nature of Novak Djokovic and Other Repeat Champions

The probability of winning back-to-back majors is always low, but tennis’s unscripted disposition means individual dedication must be even more potent for winners.

Editors’ note, upon publishing: Questions in this mailbag were lightly edited for brevity.

Happy holidays, everyone.

• Housekeeping: We’ll be back the first week of 2024, Aussie Open prep, etc.

Onward. … While thinking about whether we gave Sam Querrey enough credit for his early arrival to the Taylor Swift party …

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Jon, I have long been impressed by Novak Djokovic's level of professionalism and dedication to being a champion and your 60 Minutes piece brought that home. Am I missing something or is no other player close to the [lengths] he goes to be so great?

M.A., New York

Djokovic won the 2023 US Open at 36 years old.  :: Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

I don’t want to sound like a jerk (or the village scold) here. But I have been struck by this, too. There was a story going around recently that Djokovic passed up an opportunity for a video game endorsement because he doesn’t think they are healthy for children. Most of his competitors travel with PlayStations, and one of them logged 3,000 hours. Think about this: That’s seventy-five 40-hour weeks—more hours than Proskauer law firm asks annually of its associates—playing a video game. A single video game, at that.

Here’s another one: Djokovic doesn’t drink, doesn’t eat meat and has this meticulous plant-based diet. A few years ago, I met a friend for a drink at P.J. Clarke’s after a night session at the U.S. Open. I walked upstairs and saw a player (still in the draw) eating a late-night burger and washing it down with Coke.

One of the beauties of tennis: It is an individual sport, and players are independent contractors free to run their business (i.e., their careers) as they see fit. Some players need to escape and unplug and lose themselves in Call of Duty or a steak dinner or—don’t laugh—a book. I know I would. But for the very best, everything they do is in service of their career. Every spare moment, every bite they put in their mouth, every decision redounds to: How does this help me maximize my gifts? If you’re not wired that way or committed that way, it’s tough to compete against that. 

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Jon,

I’d like your thoughts on the stats below and why it seems harder for a champion to repeat at some venues than others.

Australia: The last woman to successfully defend her title was [Victoria] Azarenka in 2013. Djokovic repeated in ’21.

French: Świątek repeated last year. Before that, it was [Justine] Henin in 2007. [Rafael] Nadal repeated numerous times of course, the last being in ’20.

Wimbledon: Serena [Williams] repeated in 2016. Djokovic did in ’21. I consider that a repeat since there was no tournament in ’20.

US Open: Serena in 2014. Amazingly, the last man to repeat was [Roger] Federer in ’08.

Trivia question: Who is the only player to have successfully defended the title in their career at every major? (Steffi Graf)

A. Krouse

Hummelstown, PA

1. Strong trivia question. And one that I would not have known without looking up or without A. Krouse of Hummelstown providing the answer.

1a. Sidebar: I am hearing that we can expect to see a little more Steffi (and considerably more Andre Agassi) in 2024.

2. Back to your question … it’s an interesting premise. Are there some majors where it’s easier to defend than others? We can offer conjecture about the surface in question and the “the pressure of defending” and “the pressure of points.” But I wonder how much of this is just statistical probability. You have 128 players in the draw. You have not only 127 opponents but the odds of injury (see: Nadal, 2023 Australian Open, etc.) and other absences (Djokovic, ’22 Australian Open, etc.) The margins between you and the next player is infinitesimal. Maybe the way to frame this is: How amazing is it that players like Nadal and Djokovic defended so frequently?

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Jon, I remember your annual prediction column from January. You always say, “check back and see how we did.” Well, how did you do?

Molly D., Syracuse

• I am from the Midwest, Land of Humility. But since you asked …

Who will finish 2023 at No. 1? Djokovic. The women? Iga Świątek. Who will win her first major? Coco Gauff. Who will win his first major? Felix Auger Aliassime. O.K., that was a whiff.

We will do this again. And no doubt the law of averages will impose itself. Your periodic reminder that nothing dates faster than futurology, and it’s foolhardy to predict the present, much less the future. At the same time, the unscripted nature of sports is the great superpower and secret sauce. It’s almost malpractice not to entertain mock drafts and mock draws and seed reports. Speculation is the driving force behind sports gambling … the new driving engine behind sports. Just bear in mind, no one gets into Mensa for picking winners. And no one should be mocked for picking the wrong player to win a 128-draw event.

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Jon:

I always enjoy your tennis commentary. I’m also a huge Iga fan and enjoyed your recent column titled “Iga Świątek Doesn’t Need to Change for Anyone” and agree with all your comments. … On the positive side, the WTA website has increased their features on her in recent months—they need to market their best player. There's also a growing number of YouTube videos featuring Iga.

Meanwhile on the court, it really hasn’t been close over the past two years.

Player	Record	Titles
Świątek	135–20	14
[Jessica] Pegula	101–39	4
Gauff	89–39	4
[Aryna] Sabalenka	88–36	3
[Elena] Rybakina	87–36	3
[Ons] Jabeur	83–34	4

Bruce Beeghly

Lowellville, Ohio

• I’m not sure how this becomes a “blame the media” issue. Truth serum: From where I sit, the media recognizes/appreciates/respects Świątek’s generational talent, yes, but also her disarming quirky/benign/cool nature. If anything, you wish she—and the WTA—would lean into it more. Fame does not, perhaps, come naturally to her. Maybe this is constitutional. Maybe this is a conscious decision, made with maximizing her tennis in mind. It may hinder her popularity and collective connection with fans, but if she chooses mere excellence in sports, over photo shoots and YouTube videos and sitting cageside at UFC fights, more power to her.

Świątek is currently No. 1 in the WTA rankings :: Susan Mullane/USA TODAY Sports

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Watching your interview with Novak, it’s clear that he is in the LeBron [James] and [Tom] Brady stratosphere of the world-class athlete who is absolutely committed to dedicated training, nutrition, and stretching to maximize his performance. Combining that with his mental edge over his opponents, I just don’t see why he won’t continue to win the big tournaments into his early 40s. If that happens, one of tennis’ unbreakable records has a good chance to be broken, which is Rafa’s 14 wins at one major. If Novak wins in Melbourne next month, he would be at 11 titles there, and that record would definitely be in his reach. When you spoke with him, did he give any insight as to what all-time records he is still looking to surpass?

Dave H.

• Interesting question of whether Djokovic has four more Aussie Opens in him. Sounds wild, but you go broke underestimating elite athletes. Anyway, what motivates him? This is a mix of firsthand reporting and speculation. I see four main sources of motivation:

1) He wants to pad his majors record. Pete Sampras thought his 14 majors were untouchable. Federer got to 20 and likely thought, Game over. Djokovic has seen this. He has watched records thought to be unimpeachable get impeached. So why stop at 24 majors?

2) He is well aware that his success at the Olympics trails his success at other events. There has been heartbreak. There was the heartbreak-embarrassment combo platter in Tokyo. We talked about wanting it too much. With the 2024 Games in Paris—a familiar venue where he’s had success—it lines up well for him to add this last résumé item.

3) I get a distinct sense Djokovic is energized by the generational challenge. It’s almost like a handicap in golf: I am spotting you 15 years. Then he is using his experience and accumulated success to overcome the live arms and legs of the guys in their 20s and … it is a rush.

4) Self-fulfillment. Not unlike Venus [Williams], Djokovic takes pride in simply testing—and sometimes exceeding—the parameters of his limits.

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Hey Jon,

I hope all is well. I think I may have asked you something about this as a mailbag question ages ago, but there’s gotta be (whether active now, 30 years ago, 100 years ago…) gay players amongst the ATP, right? Right??

It boggles my mind there STILL hasn’t been one openly gay active player on the ATP tour. Especially when tennis has so many gay fans and recreational players. Other professional sports organizations have broken that barrier first, and it’s just wild to me. And all due respect to Brian Vahaly, but even after retirement, there’s nobody??

Any insight you have into this subject will always be appreciated, whether in the mailbag, a column, etc.

Best regards, Lanny 

• This question gives us an excuse to link to this wild story (starring Mailbag readers). … Here’s a podcast worth your time.

Anyway, there is, of course, a large cohort of openly gay players in professional tennis. They just all happen to be women. Why is there not—nor has there ever been—any openly gay active player in the ATP’s top 100? It’s a valid question. It’s an interesting question. Quick thoughts:

1) I have heard the self-selecting argument, once put forth to me by a (widely respected) top player. (It’s not homophobia. It’s not about pressure to remain closeted. There IS no openly gay player in the top 100, because there is no gay player. Gay players have opted out of this career.) I don’t buy it. Statistically, it doesn’t wash. Is the percentage of gay tennis players consistent with the proportion to the population at large? Maybe not. But the idea that there are zero gay players in the top 100 is not realistic.

2) There are factors militating for and against coming out. Yes, tennis is an individual sport, and the player would not have to worry about teammates or a dynamic with the coach or organization. The flip side: Tennis is an individual sport. The openly gay player would not have the infrastructure of a support system that, say, Jason Collins or Carl Nassib did.

3) Tennis is an international sport. The openly gay player might get a warm reception in, say, Palm Springs, Fla., or Melbourne. What about when the tour wended its way through other markets that are considerably less tolerant?

4) Imagine the most positive outcome. Zero homophobia. No friction in the locker room. The player is hailed as a pioneer. That’s potentially exhausting. That’s potentially a lot of time and energy and emotional bandwidth diverted from tennis. This is a tough and demanding job, in the best of times. It’s easy to see a gay tennis player saying to themselves, What happens to my tennis if I have to devote so much to my pioneer status?

5) All of which is to say … as a matter of both statistics and common sense, there are gay players. It should concern tennis that no active top 100 player has come out. But it takes a special player to accept that public pressure and status—potentially consuming great swaths of time and emotional energy and exacting a price on their tennis game. Maybe the statistical unlikelihood of THAT isn’t so remarkable.

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What do you make of Nick Kyrgios’s remarks about Boris Becker and others?

Charles, Brooklyn

• I am reluctant to platform this “argument,” such as it is.

A. Comparing eras is largely silly. Different strings, different rackets and different finances. Somewhere you can hear Martina Navratilova saying, “Hell, if I had a personal trainer, personal stringer and flew everywhere private, my career would have been a lot different.”

B. Kyrgios is wrong. Spark up YouTube, watch Boris Becker or Stefan Edberg or Pete Sampras and then say with a straight face that—especially on grass—they wouldn’t be formidable today.

C. Also, athletes push one another. If, say, Becker were chasing the Big Three, he would likely make adjustments and alter his training.

D. Even if these were deeply held beliefs, why articulate them? You denigrate colleagues from a previous era. You minimize the achievements of players who, frankly, have achieved more than you. In this particular case, a guy who often speaks out against the purveyors of “hate” and “disrespect”—completely unsolicited—is doing just that.

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Shots, Miscellany

When he was 22, Eric Butorac was done playing college tennis in Minnesota and headed to France. It transformed his career and his life. He saw the world, traveled, played tennis on clay and became a top ATP doubles player. Now he’s helping replicate the experience for others.

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Two rising American stars on the global tennis stage will make their main draw Houston debuts at the 2024 Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship, organizers announced today. World No. 17 Ben Shelton and No. 34 Christopher Eubanks, both of whom are nominated for the ’23 ATP Tour Most Improved Player Award, will join fellow American and defending champion Frances Tiafoe in the field for the tournament (March 30 to April 7) at River Oaks Country Club.