2024 U.S. Open Men's Seed Report: Predictions for a Draw of Possibility

A slate of contenders will look to knock Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic out of the winner's circle.

Alcaraz will look to pull off the summer trifecta and claim the U.S. Open title after winning the French Open and Wimbledon. / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

In the best of times, the tennis draw is a slate of possibility. But all the more so of this U.S. Open, the final major of 2024. And all the more so given the events of this week. The top seed is embroiled in a doping controversy. The second seed is 37 years old and hasn’t won a sanctioned event in 2024. The third seed and winner of the previous two majors comes in on a two-match losing streak.

Still, the new Big Three of men’s tennis have won nine straight majors. And it will take an extraordinary effort to crack their hold at the top. Is Daniil Medvedev ready to get in the winner’s circle? Is Alexander Zverev ready to break his close-but-not-quite habit? Are any of the five seeded Americans ready to end Andy Roddick’s status as a trivia answer? (Name the last American male to win this—or any—major?) 

Fasten your seatbelts. Make sure your shoulder harnesses are secure. Keep your hands inside the ride at all times. Enjoy the ride …

Here with your 2024 U.S. Open men’s seed report.

The top 16 

1. Jannik Sinner

Well … the good news is that he’s coming off the Cincinnati title. It’s been obscured by the fact that he now confronts a scandal. Though exonerated for failing two doping tests early this year, so many questions remain. How will a player—heretofore immune to controversy, if not allergic to it—respond to this new dynamic?

2. Novak Djokovic

It’s been quite a year for the defending champion. An injury. Modest success by his standards—zero majors and zero ATP titles. And, in other ways, among the most successful campaigns of his unrivaled career. Coming off a breathtaking Olympic gold, winner of 12 of his last 13 matches and, at age 37, still a contender—if not the outright favorite—to win the last major of the year.

3. Carlos Alcaraz

The world tour continues, as the winner of the previous two majors goes for the summer trifecta. (Pre-empting: Djokovic never did it. Roger Federer never did it. Rafael Nadal pulled it off in 2010.) Alcaraz doesn’t come in with much momentum, having lost to Djokovic in the gold medal match in Paris and then, perhaps more concerningly to another 37-year-old, Gael Monfils, on the hard courts of Cincinnati. Still, his energy and effusiveness are such a good match for New York’s crowd. 

4. Alexander Zverev

Zverev is a top-tier player and former finalist here (in 2020) … and in Paris earlier this season. But he’s such a paradox. Outwardly, Zverev has an abundance of confidence and self-satisfaction. Then, with matches on the line, there is this absence of self-belief. From the Paris final to relinquishing a 2–0 set lead at Wimbledon, to losing the hometown Hamburg title in a third-set breaker, to a 5–7, 5–7 loss at the Olympics, to a 7–6 third-set defeat to Sinner in Cincinnati … he’s been on a bender of disappointment this summer. Cumulatively, that all adds up.

Medvedev has not won a title since his 2021 U.S. Open win. / David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

5. Daniil Medvedev

The U.S. Open champion in 2021 hasn’t been back in the winner’s circle. But he’s been close, reaching major finals, including in New York last year. He had a rough go of it in Canada and Cincy, heading into the U.S. Open 0–2 with both losses coming to players outside the top 20 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Jiří Lehečka). And this year, his serve has been a work in regress. But Medvedev is always dangerous, and always likable. Remember, too, his run to the final in ’23 included a takedown win over Alcaraz.

6. Andrey Rublev

A cut-and-paste from the drafts folder: “This will sound harsher than intended. But there’s an element of counterfeit here. A top-flight player, week in, and week out. A fine member of the society, his penchant for self-flagellation notwithstanding. But has yet to show he has the mettle and physical durability to get it done in the best-of-five events.” (A win over Sinner in Montreal is grounds for optimism. A loss to Sinner in Cincy douses some of that.)

7. Hubert Hurkacz

He suffered that wretched knee injury at Wimbledon that caused him to miss the Paris Olympics. Then, Hurkacz made a Djokovician return, back to winning matches less than a month after surgery. He’s not a contender to win the title but he can play to his seeding, especially if the ATP ace leader is dialing in that serve.

8. Casper Ruud 

Let debate rage … Rudd is an underachiever who has game to spare, but takes mystifying losses—and it doesn’t seem to particularly dampen his spirit? Or he’s a solid player of limited weaponry who has done well to reach three major finals (including the 2022 U.S. Open)?

9. Grigor Dimitrov

Credit the Bulgarian veteran for playing at this level at age (gulp) 33. And credit him for being a sunny, accessible, menschy guy all these years. And credit him for a game that is still so easy on the eyes. But there’s too much delta in his game (and mental fitness) to make him a reliable contender in a best-of-five event. 

10. Alex de Minaur

A well-deserved breakthrough year was marred by the injury that prevented him from playing his Wimbledon quarterfinal match. He hit his career-high ranking on July 15 and hasn’t played since.

11. Stefanos Tstisipas

A dormant stock for too long now. Who remembers way back in 2021 when Alcaraz “upset” Tsitsipas and announced himself? Who remembers when Tsitsipas reached major finals with authoritative tennis? He’s now without his dad as coach—a positive development. Any number of players could really use a fine U.S. Open to salvage their year, Tstisipas is way up on the list.

12. Taylor Fritz

Fritz seems to have settled into a bit of a professional cul de sac. He’s too solid to drop out of the top 15. But still seeking that real major breakthrough. Coming off a Wimbledon quarterfinal run that included a courageous win over Zverev, but then lost a winnable match against Lorenzo Musetti. And—after winning a doubles medal in Paris—did little on the U.S. hard courts. 

Shelton returns to the U.S. Open after last year's semifinal run. / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

13. Ben Shelton

 A future No.1 says noted tennis analyst and advocate for supply-side economics. Shelton was last year’s U.S. Open revelation, which means he comes in not simply as a star who will command night sessions, but as someone defending semifinal points. He made the decision to skip the Olympics to soar on the North American hard courts. Shelton had a solid Cincinnati tournament that included, yes, his blistering serving, but also improved returning.

14. Tommy Paul

It’s been a bit of a mystifying year for such a talented player. Paul was putting together such a solid 2024 but has lost momentum in August going 1–2 in Montreal and Cincy. The best-of-five format will help him. So will the night sessions. And the knowledge that he has already reached the semifinals of a hardcourt major.

15. Holger Rune

Something was—if not rotten—amiss in the state of Denmark. But Rune started his 2024 reclamation project with a fine run in Cincy. The talent is undeniable. When healthy, he is a top-tier, well-conditioned athlete. A missing ingredient has been stability, but there are good signs it’s coming.

16. Sebastian Korda

He showed signs of coalescing his obvious gifts this summer, winning Washington D.C. and making a deep run in Canada. We have been talking about the potential, the inherent gifts and the favorable nature/nurture for years. Korda boasts a modest 4–3 record at majors in 2024, but maybe this is the event where results catch up to expectations.

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Seeds 17-32

18. Lorenzo Musetti

Perhaps because he broke through as a teen, and perhaps because he has a kid, we forget Musetti doesn’t turn 23 until March. A Wimbledon semifinal followed by an Olympic bronze—beating players like Fritz and Zverev and Félix Auger-Aliassime; losing to Djokovic both times—suggests he’s settled into his game.

19. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Tennis karma is in arrears to him. All the raw material is there but it’s been another unremarkable year for a player who has—to tennis’s detriment—faded a bit from conversation and view and the top 10. 

Tiafoe enters the U.S. Open after advancing to the finals in Cincinnati. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

20. Frances Tiafoe

His last four outings in New York are as follows: 4R/4R/SF/QF. The 26-year-old showed flashes of the old Foe at Wimbledon, taking two sets off of Alcaraz, a loss that aged well, and then made a deep run in Cincy. He built his year—and took a pass on the Olympics—to peak for this event. 

24. Arthur Fils

No artifice here. The French phenom made Week 2 at Wimbledon, and won the Hamburg title (beating Zverev in a contentious final) but faltered on North American hard courts.  Now he comes in search of a major breakthrough.

27. Alexander Bublik

As ever, your guess is as good as anyone’s, his included. But it’s never boring. And this is the trick shot of the year.

25. Jack Draper

Coming off a run in Cincinnati that will be recalled for controversy more than for his charge to the quarters. He has loads of talent and loads of lefty power. The question: To what extent is he up for best-of-five play? On hard courts. In August.

28. Alexei Popyrin

Popyrin, an Aussie coming off the biggest title of his career in Montreal, has a chance to show this was no lighting-in-a-bottle outlier in New York.

31. Flavio Cobolli

Because Italy needed more tennis success. Perhaps the best player you’ve never seen play?

32. Jiri Lehecka

How good is he? Apart from beating Medvedev last week—Czech this out—he is a seed despite not playing between Madrid and Cincy.

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Dark horse pasture

Brandon Nakashima: A 23-year-old American who beat both Paul and Fritz in August. 

Learner Tien: He’s a fast learner, only 18 and has won five (!) challenger events this year. He starts against Fils.

Monfils made a semifinal appearance at the U.S. Open in 2016. / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Gael Monfils: He's one to watch and not, at age 37, just for reasons of sentimentality. Anyone who beats Alcaraz gets mentioned.

Matteo Berrettini: The former Wimbledon finalist won a (admittedly small) pair of titles this summer and might well be the most dangerous unseeded player.

Alex Michelsen: He’s still scratching and clawing his way out of the egg. But Michelson is one of those dangerous players no seed wants to see in the vicinity. 

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Tennis’s Victor Wembanyama was a lucky loser at Wimbledon, who made Week 2. He was nearly seeded here.

Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem: Two former champs, both in on wild cards, merit mention.

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First-round matches to watch

Brandon Nakashima vs. Rune: I can’t quite pull the trigger, but this has serious upset vibes.

Sinner vs. Mackie McDonald

Shelton vs. Dominic Thiem

Reilly Opelka vs. Musetti: This is a tough first task for both players.

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Upset special 

Marcos Giron d. De Minaur: Assuming De Minaur is less than 100% percent. Otherwise, Nakashima d. Rune.

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Semifinals

Alcaraz d. Sinner

Djokovic d. Fritz

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Finals

Alcaraz d. Djokovic