2024 Wimbledon Women’s Seed Report: It’s Iga Świątek's Trophy to Lose

The French Open champion looks to solve the riddle of grass, while Coco Gauff hopes to overcome the world No. 1.

Swiatek has yet to advance beyond the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

What a strange fact pattern this women’s draw presents. There is one player absolutely dominating the sport this year … and, truly, for the last 30 months. She is fresh from running the table in Paris, her match record on the year is 45–4, north of 90%. And yet, she has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. 

Is this the year Iga Swiatek solves the riddle of grass? Especially since so many of her potential thwarters are injured, ailing or still shaking off torpor. Last year’s champ is hurt. The champ from 2022 struggles with her health. The champ from ’21 is retired. The champ from ’19 isn’t in the draw. Your serve, Iga. 

The top 16

1. Iga Swiatek

The clear-cut No.1 tries to win back-to-back majors for the first time in her career. With her Roger Federer-esque footwork, it’s curious why she hasn’t had more success on grass. (The conventional wisdom: she suffers for her extreme grips on a surface that takes away time.) Still, she was the junior champ in 2018 and could likely be the women’s singles champ in ’24. 

2. Coco Gauff

Was it really five years ago that she made her breakthrough? Gauff lost in Round 1 at Wimbledon 2023 … which turned out to be a pivotal moment in her career. Look for her at the business end of this event. She still needs to solve the Swiatek riddle, but she enters knowing her nemesis resides in the opposite half of the draw. An undeniable contender. Could get a workout in Round 1 from Caroline Dolehide.

3. Aryna Sabalenka

Who is old enough to remember when Sabalenka was defined by erratic results? Get this: it’s been multiple years since she lost in Week 1 of a major. The French Open was more a bummer than a sting—a quarterfinal defeat that owed to the misfortune of a stomach ailment. It’s been a hell of a year for Sabalenka. And last week, she pulled out from a match—for the first time in her career—with a shoulder injury. Yet, she could easily win her second major of 2024 here. 

4.  Elena Rybakina

A Wimbledon winner in 2022 and, maybe more critically, Rybakina has remained at the top of the sport. So much to like about her, including a sneaky athleticism and disdain for drama. Still, she is so often in suboptimal shape—ill, injured, sleep-deprived. Given her mystifying ill health, it’s getting harder to imagine her putting seven winning matches together. 

5. Jessica Pegula

An admirable talent maximizer was in the throes of a disappointing year and missed Roland Garros. Then, Pegula showed up in Berlin, won the event—beating Gauff in the semifinals; and Anna Kalinskaya 7–6 in the third set of the final—and looked like a thoroughly refreshed player. (Don’t read too much into a playing-on-fumes loss to Emma Raducanu this week.) Pegula’s measured game transitions well to grass. And remember, she reached the quarters (and should have beaten the eventual champion) in 2023.

6. Marketa Vondrousova

Your—you beat us to it—defending champion. Without a tournament win since (and having won only 16 of 26 matches all year), there’s little evidence to suggest a repeat. Then again, there was absolutely nothing that portended last year’s triumphant run. (Worryingly, she took a fall on the grass at Berlin, injured her hip and is still questionable at this writing.)

7. Jasmine Paolini

Her seeding owes to her breakthrough year, including her run to the French Open final. But get this: she has never before won a match at Wimbledon. It’ll be interesting to see how her game, movement and winsome spirit translate to grass.

8. Qinwen Zhang

A finalist in Australia, she hasn’t much built on that, but there’s so much to like from Zhang … especially on a zippy surface.

9. Maria Sakkari

The cut-and-paste: “A fine, fun, athletic, versatile player. But still—even under a new coach—a bit of a mystery.” Is she the Gauff-beater who reached the Indian Wells final? Or the unsure basher who doubts herself in big moments and crashed out in the first round of Roland Garros?

10. Ons Jabeur

The Wimbledon finalist two years running, but you wonder if the window to win majors hasn’t clapped shut. A lovely player to have around. But only a minor threat to win big. Even when fully healthy. Which she is not right now.

Jabeur has lost in the last two finals at Wimbledon. / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

11. Danielle Collins

The Danimal was sedated a bit in Paris. A lot of momentum came to a screeching halt when she lost an early round battle to a qualifier. In (likely) the last Wimbledon of her career, let’s see if she can’t make a happy memory.

12. Madison Keys

Her sheer power always makes Keys a formidable player. It’s unclear, however, where she sees herself. A legitimate threat, motivated to win majors? Or a player nearing the omega of a fine career, with one eye on the present and one on the future?

13. Jelena Ostapenko

Lil Wayne’s biggest Latvian fan is now on the grass. Say what you will, but she dances to her own backbeat. She’s dangerous on any given day and also capable of losing to anyone on any given day. And capable of doing this. It’s been over seven years since her major title, credit to her for remaining a top-15 player.

14. Daria Kasatkina

Kasatinka is a player thoroughly worthy of your admiration and support. But one who will be lucky to play to her seeding. Her deficit of power is not easily masked on grass.

15. Liudmila Samsonova

After a meh start to the year (a losing record through Roland Garros) the athletic Russian wins Hertogenbosch and is suddenly a player to watch at SW19.

16. Victoria Azarenka

It's been more than a decade since her last major title. Still, she’s always dangerous, always fighting.

Azarenka has advanced to the semifinals at Wimbledon twice (2011 and '12). / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Select seeds 17-32

17. Anna Kalinskaya

The Berlin finalist has made her move in 2024. With any luck, she gets more attention on the court than in the players’ box.

18. Marta Kostyuk

Much respect: With so much instability at home, the Ukrainian has played herself into the top 20.

19. Emma Navarro

She played Wimbledon for the first time last year—and lost in Round 1—which gives you a sense of the pace of this ascent.

20. Beatriz Haddad Maia

The Brazilian has been both quiet and loud the last few years. She has lots of wins but has struggled at majors, including in Paris where she was defeated in Round 1. Between her power and lefty look, she’d be a strong candidate for a deep run. But that doesn’t happen much at majors.

21. Elina Svitolina

Svitolina was a semifinalist last year and has fallen off a bit, but her offense-defense combo can be devastatingly effective.

24. Mirra Andreeva

For the first time, she’ll be seeded at a major. And it will be a long time before she’ll be unseeded again.

26. Linda Noskova

Who’s the only player to beat Swiatek at a major in 2024? 

27. Katerina Siniakova

The French Open doubles winner (with Gauff) has the game to be a top singles player. (And now ranked higher than her former doubles partner.)

31. Barbora Krejcikova

You know the rules, recent major champs (2021 French Open) get mentioned.

32. Katie Boulter

Apart from the inevitable British hype, she has A) the game for this surface and B) emerged as a thoroughly professional player.

Boulter will face 36-year-old Tatjana Maria in the first round of Wimbledon. / Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

Dark Horse Pasture

Sonia Kenin: The former major champ beat Gauff last year and starts out against Swiatek.

Karolina Muchova: We’ll see about her health and fitness, having suffered another setback this week. But at this point last year she was a wonderfully athletic player coming off a major final showing. Now, she is allegedly ready to “make some mess.”

Yulia Putintseva: Your Birmingham grass winner would be seeded if the draw cut-off were today. 

Raducanu: Her last stretch of results is the best since her extraordinary 2021.

Bianca Andreescu: She’s still searching for the 2019 magic, but the green shoots—including a battle win over Naomi Osaka on grass last month—are encouraging.

Osaka: Her grass track record is a modest one. But so was her clay record … and she came within a point of taking down the Roland Garros winner last month.

Donna Vekic: She’s too good of a player to be ranked barely inside the top 50.

Karolina Pliskova: In the autumn—if not winter—of a fine career. Still, she serves bullets and was a finalist just four years ago.

Angelique Kerber: A first-round loser in both Berlin and Hamburg, but all former champions merit mention. 

Alicia Parks: It’s been a wild year. But she qualified, and her serve should require a concealed carry license.

First-round matches to watch

Swiatek vs. Sofia Kenin: Two former major champs (albeit in different places in their careers).

Collins vs. Clara Tauson: A tough draw for both.

Sloane Stephens vs. Azarenka: For the 10th time.

Paula Badosa v. Muchova: Two oft-injured former top-shelfers go head-to-head.

Andreeva vs. Brenda Fruhvirtova: The 17-year-olds face off on grass.

Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Ostapenko: Remember this?

Tomljanovic's first-round match against Ostapenko will be one to watch. / Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

Upset special

I can’t pull the trigger on Ashlyn Krueger d. Pegula, so Tomljanovic d. Ostapenko?

Semis 

Swiatek d. Lucia Bronzetti (why not!)

Gauff d. Sabalenka

Finals

Gauff d. Swiatek