2025 Australian Open Men’s Seed Report: Defending Champion Looms Large

Can a challenger block Jannik Sinner from claiming his second consecutive title Down Under?

Sinner will look to defend his 2024 Australian Open title. / Graham Denholm/Getty Images

It’s been a rough stretch for incumbents globally. Name a country, we will show you an ousted world leader. In 2024, the citizenry in 70 countries—accounting for about half the world’s population—went to the polls and many voted out the ruling party. 

But the Republic of Tennis often zigs where others zag. And in 2025, it’s hard to imagine much change at the top. Aryna Sabalenka comes to the Australian Open prepared to three-peat, after winning the previous major, the 2024 U.S. Open. She is the top seed on the women’s side. 

Likewise, Jannik Sinner is the top men’s seed, the defending champ and the winner of the previous major. Torturing the analogy: There will be capable challengers and opposition candidates. Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz are two names that spring to mind. But we’ll stick with the incumbents.

Here is our 2025 Aussie Open men’s preview and seed report:

Australian Open: The top 16 men

1. Jannik Sinner

A modern-day warrior, mean, mean stride. The defending Aussie Open champion (and top seed) and winner of the previous major is the favorite, perhaps even the overwhelming favorite. As was the case last year, he comes in having played no tuneups. The question is (euphemism alert) the hovering cloud of his doping appeal, more than the opponent on the other side of the net.

2. Alexander Zverev

The best player never to win a major, now 27, has a real chance to break through. His game is there. His conditioning is there. His recovery from that gruesome ankle injury is underrated. Where is he mentally, especially as matches tighten against quality players (whether it’s Alcaraz in a final or Taylor Fritz in Week 2)? 

3. Carlos Alcaraz

He is going for the career major at age 21. The Spaniard was a bit of a disappointment Down Under in 2024 and had a somewhat soft end to the year. But in between, he won two majors. For all the players uncomfortable wearing the jacket of celebrity, he slips right into it. And he enters Australia with a heavier stick and tinkered service motion.

4. Taylor Fritz 

Grind and growth. Fritz comes in with a career-high ranking, seeding that ensures he won’t play a higher-ranked opponent until the semifinals and, most critically, a run to the finals in his previous major. His movement improves each year. Is he now in a position to win seven matches (provided Sinner, his bad-matchup guy, is not in the path)?

5. Daniil Medvedev

Pops (again) is such an asset to the tennis portfolio. He is smart, funny, self-deprecating and episodically wild but in a generally benign way. Sadly, his tennis is a bit of a work in regress, starting with his serve. A finalist in Melbourne three of the past four years, can he get back in the conversation?

6. Casper Ruud

The cut-and-paste: He is such a solid, admirable pro’s pro. But does the lack of a kill shot and serving pop prevent him from winning a major, at least on a hard court? Rudd has never been beyond the fourth round in Melbourne.

7. Novak Djokovic

The “7” next to his name is not nearly as jarring as the “10” next to his Australian Open title mark. With—all together now—new coach … maybe you heard? …  Andy Murray in his box, he will take the court at age 37 and try and get that 25th major (his first in 16 months). Djokovic lost, inauspiciously, to Reilly Opelka to start the 2025 campaign. But the rules of the road, as always: Bet against him at your peril. 

8. Alex de Minaur

Another Aussie will get more headlines, but this unassailable one, likely, will do what he always does. He competes with maximalist effort and minimalist drama and makes good on his seeding—one, significantly, that endures no higher-ranked foe until the quarters.

9. Andrey Rublev

Credit him for his consistency. Rublev is always in the conversation. Also credit him for his durability, having played 27 (!) events in 2024. He’s still searching for his first major semifinal and still searching for mechanisms to avoid self-flagellation when he’s missing shots. 

10. Grigor Dimitrov

A top 10 habitue, even in his mid-30s, this after an encouraging 2024. The highest-ranked one-hander has played deep in Australia before, but his injury retirement in Brisbane is a concern. Is there another deep major charge here for one of the good guys?

11. Stefanos Tsitsipas

He’s in a bit of a swoon lately, especially at (nonclay) majors. But Tsitsipas still managed to win over 50 matches last year and is a former Australian Open finalist.

12. Tommy Paul

He is a former Australian Open semifinalist. All credit to him for establishing himself as a reliable top-15 player. The question now is, is he pushing against his limits, or is there another level here?

13. Holger Rune

In 2024, the engine gave and now the boat is puttering amid the fjords. He’s had lots of personnel churn, curious defeats and niggling injuries. Rune boasts a modest 7–4 record at the four majors. But there is loads of talent here. And he’s only 21. 

14. Hugo Umbert

The highest-ranked French player has a game that’s easy on the eyes but not necessarily built to last. Umbert is still looking for a major breakthrough. 

15. Jack Draper

There is so much to like here … the linebacker physique, the lefty serve and the abundance of poise. In his last major match, he was so physically spent, that he vomited on the court. How will he fare in one of those infernally hot Aussie sessions? And that is before factoring in an offseason hip injury …

16. Lorenzo Musetti

He’s newly shorn and ready for battle.

Musetti advanced to the 2024 Wimbledon semifinals, a career highlight for the 22-year-old. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Seeds 17-32

17. Frances Tiafoe

He started the season with Nike, but we’ve been told to keep an eye on the apparel situation. As for tennis, there is a lot in Melbourne that agrees with Tiafoe’s game and strength; let’s see if he can channel that big U.S. Open energy.

18.  Hubert Hurkacz

He’s in a bit of a mid-career lull. But, to Hurkacz’s credit, he’s shaken things up, parting ways with coach Craig Boynton and hiring the unlikely couple of Nicolas Massu and Ivan Lendl. The questions are more about mental strength and finishing skills than his X’s and O’s.

20. Arthur Fils

A major talent. Is he ready for the major breakthrough?

21. Ben Shelton

Buy this stock on the (slight) dip. Live (lefty) arms go far in this sport.

22. Seb Korda

The game is there. Is the durability? Two years ago Korda beat Medvedev in Australia, the biggest major win of his career.

24. Jiří Lehečka

The Brisbane winner’s talent is an open secret.

25. Alexei Popyrin 

He enters Australia riding high after beating Djokovic at the previous major.

27. Jordan Thompson 

He doesn’t get the attention of countrymen Nick Kyrgios or de Minaur (or even Popyrin) but has aged into a rock-solid player.

29. Félix Auger-Aliassime 

He had a big offseason off the court. He’s too good a player to be ranked here.

30. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

He’s No. 7 with the oddsmakers? The 21-year-old makes Ivo Karlović look like a knuckleballer. There are still a lot of edges in need of planing and sanding. But that serve alone will win Mpetshi Perricard match after match.

Mpetshi Perricard has never advanced beyond the fourth round of a major. / Marcio Machado/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

Dark horse pasture

A general one to start …

Czechs: Tomáš Macháč, Jakub Menšík and Lehečka. Some are seeded, some not, but watch them all … Italy gets all the amore lately, but the CZE is a country code running rampant on draw sheets.

Opelka: It’s the first week of January and the big fella is back, having beaten Djokovic among others to reach the Brisbane final. (One hopes his retirement in the final is more precautionary than an injury aggravation.)

Kyrgios: For all the sound fury, the first question redounds to this: Will his body hold up?

Alex Michelsen: He has a rough first-round matchup against  Tsitsipas, but if he survives, his draw opens.

Stan Wawrinka: All former champions get a mention. (Yes, it was more than a full decade ago.)

Joao Fonseca: The Brazilian teen—made to qualify—is the hot prospect coming into Australia. There is so much game here, you just worry that he’s played a lot of tennis these past few weeks. (And best-of-five matches are so often a big adjustment for teenagers.)

Hady Habib: Namecheck the first Lebanese player in the main draw.

First-round matches to watch

Djokovic vs. Nishesh Basavareddy: A few months ago, Basavareddy (19, with a gorgeous backhand) was a Stanford undergrad. Now he gets Djokovic at a major.

Sinner vs. Nicolas Jarry: An early test for the defending champ.

Monfils vs. Perricard: The past/present and future of French tennis meet. Who writes this stuff?

Cameron Norrie vs. Matteo Berrettini: A battle of two former top tenners.

Tsistipas vs. Michelsen: Upset meter blinking?

Doubles champ 

Rajeev Ram and Austin Krajicek

First-Round upset special

Brandon Nakashima d. Shelton

Semifinals

Sinner d. Fritz

Zverev d. Alcaraz

Finals 

Sinner d. Zverev