Predicting the Super Bowl 57 winner with 100 Madden NFL 23 simulations

We simulated 100 games in Madden NFL 23 to predict the Super Bowl winners this year

The Super Bowl is almost here and it’s time to predict a winner. The Madden NFL 23 video game has a useful simulator that allows us to run 100 simulated games between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to predict the winners. From the 100 simulated games, there were many possibilities of which team would win a championship this year, some games being close, and others being blowouts.

Out of the 100 simulated games, Madden simulated the Chiefs winning 57 games, leaving the Eagles to win 43. Right off the bat, the Chiefs already have a higher chance to win, and a lot has to do with Patrick Mahomes. The most notable prediction for the Chiefs' QB is that he will throw for at least one touchdown pass and have at least 200 passing yards. The only outlier was game number 13 where Mahomes only threw for 196 yards, but three touchdowns.

Out of the 57 wins for Kansas City, 27 of the games would be the Chiefs winning by 10 or more points. That leaves 30 of the games to be decided by less than 10 points. A key factor we saw was that in the first 65 games the Chiefs would score first, leaving eight games in which, when the Chiefs scored first, they lost.

Patrick Mahomes’ best game was game number 18, where he would throw for 575 yards, four touchdown passes. However, the score for that game ended up being 48-45 in favor of the Chiefs. 

Only four of the 100 games went into overtime, which is probably a good probability when predicting the Super Bowl outcome, but out of the four games that went into overtime, the Chiefs would win all of them. 

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Madden simulated that the Eagles would only win 43 out of the 100 games, which percentage-wise, Madden gives the Eagles a 43% chance to win the Super Bowl. Out of those 43, the Eagles would win 14 games by 10 or more points. 

The Eagles have a better percentage for winning games by 10 or more points even though they were simulated to win fewer games than the Chiefs. Out of the 100 games simulated, 56 would be decided by one score or less and that does include two-point conversions.

The stats for Jalen Hurts aren’t all that eye-popping, so it’s pretty safe to say that Madden believes Hurts won’t be the biggest deciding factor. More so will be their defense, which already is one of the key points leading up to this game. 

Obviously, Madden gives the edge to the Kansas City Chiefs, as according to the simulations, the Chiefs have a 57% chance to win the Super Bowl while the Eagles only have a 43% chance. 

One of the hardest parts about predicting who will win the Super Bowl is that you never know what is going to actually happen come Super Bowl Sunday. One team might just not show up while the other dominates, or it could be a high-scoring game, or even a low-scoring game. 

An important thing to note is that since 2004, Madden NFL's predictions have been accurate 13 out of 19 times when predicting just the Super Bowl winner, and since then Madden has predicted both the actual score and the winner once, for Super Bowl 49 in 2015. 

Madden is 50% accurate when predicting the outcome for the Chiefs when they make the Super Bowl, having predicted that the Chiefs would beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 correctly, but incorrectly picking the Chiefs over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Super Bowl 55. 

As for the Eagles, Madden is 50% accurate when predicting the outcome for when the Eagles make the Super Bowl, having predicted the Eagles would not win Super Bowl 39 correctly, but incorrectly picking the Eagles to lose Super Bowl 52. 

With almost a patternlike prediction for both teams, it appears the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl 57. 

Check out SI.com for more Super Bowl LVII coverage.