Five Takeaways From the First Round of the WNBA Playoffs

With the star-studded semifinals matchups set, here’s a look at how the opening contests indicate what we can expect going forward.

The WNBA semifinals are now set with the Storm and Aces set to meet in what has all the makings of an all-time great series—it features seven former No. 1 draft picks. Chicago and Connecticut will battle it out in the other star-studded semi to see who can move one step closer to claiming this year’s title.

Before the second round of the postseason begins, here are five takeaways from the first round that both look back on what’s already occurred and get you set for what’s to come.

1. Chicago’s past experience continues to shine through in adverse situations.

Playing on the road in a series-deciding Game 3, the Sky never blinked. Even after New York went on a 7–0 run to slash a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to merely three, Chicago remained composed, exhibiting the experience and poise that was instrumental in its title run last year. When coach and general manager James Wade called a timeout less than a minute into the fourth quarter, he reminded his team to keep its composure and focus on eliminating their mental mistakes. The players did just that, going on a 16–0 run over the next six-plus minutes to put the game, and series, away.

All-Star center Emma Meesseman was not a member of last year’s title team, though she did take home a Finals MVP with the Mystics in 2019. Ahead of Tuesday’s Game 3, she reflected on how the team’s veteran makeup has played dividends all year. “Even if it’s not perfect basketball you still have to keep fighting,” she said.

During the regular season, Chicago often played its best basketball in the game’s most important minutes. The Sky were No. 1 in net rating in the fourth quarter, outscoring teams by nearly nine points per 100 possessions. In Game 1 against the Liberty, they slipped in the waning part of the fourth quarter to drop the series opener. But such flubs have been rare for Chicago, and its defense especially has stiffened at key junctures. Speaking after her team’s Game 3 loss, Liberty coach Sandy Brondello noted the importance of Chicago’s cohesion. “I think that’s just carried over to this year and I think they’ll be really hard to beat, to be quite honest,” she said.

2. How will Storm coach Noelle Quinn use her star centers?

Tina Charles has been open about her desire to claim a championship with Seattle. That was reason No. 1 why the eight-time All-Star joined the franchise at the end of June after reaching a buyout with the Mercury. While it took some time for Charles to settle in with the Storm, by season’s end she was an instrumental part of the best five-person lineup in the WNBA. Of five-player groups that played more than 100 minutes together this season, none had a better net rating than the Storm’s five of Charles, guard Jewell Loyd, guard Sue Bird, forward Gabby Williams and forward Breanna Stewart. That combination is especially potent on offense, with opposing teams forced to make uncomfortable choices about who to stop.

Concurrently, though, Charles’s arrival has diminished the role of center Ezi Magbegor, who appeared to be one of the favorites for the league’s Most Improved Player award after the first two months of the season. Magbegor, who is among the league’s best defensive centers, has looked increasingly comfortable going back to a bench role, but in Game 2 of Seattle’s series with Washington, she actually played more minutes than Charles, both overall and in the game’s deciding period. Of course, having two centers who can make a major impact is a good problem to have, but how Quinn deploys each will remain a curiosity ahead of a matchup with Las Vegas and its versatile frontcourt.

3. Chelsea Gray is playing her best basketball at the perfect time.

Four members of the Aces’ most-used starting five were named WNBA All-Stars in July. Only one, guard Chelsea Gray, was not. Yet, after one round of the playoffs, it’s fair to wonder whether she is playing better than any other player on Las Vegas’s roster. The 29-year-old guard averaged 20.8 points and 6.4 assists of the final five games of the regular season. Such success has transferred over the playoffs, where Gray put up an efficient 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field in Game 1 over Phoenix, and an even more prolific 27-point, eight-assist outing, while missing only two of her 11 shots, in the Aces’ series-clinching Game 2 win.

“I think right now as a team we’re playing our best basketball at both ends,” Gray said afterward. “You want to peak at the right time, and for me, individually, that’s what I’m feeling.”

Against Seattle, with forward Dearica Hamby still nursing a right quad injury, Gray, along with guards Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young and forward A’ja Wilson, will have to maintain a similar level of success if the Aces want to advance. Gray has had success against the Storm throughout the regular season, averaging 17.5 points, 7.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds in their four meetings, but how she performs in the upcoming best-of-five series is, of course, far more important.

4. Connecticut’s defense is dangerous no matter the situation.

It seemed like Connecticut could not have played much worse on offense than it did in the first half of Wednesday night’s Game 3 vs. Dallas. It shot 32% from the field, its worst first half field goal percentage in the playoffs since 2012; 27.3% from three; and 50% from the free throw line. And yet, heading into the locker room, the Sun and Wings were tied 34 apiece.

Coming out of the locker room, Connecticut ramped up its defensive pressure. It held Dallas to only 24 points in the game’s final 20 minutes and forced 11 turnovers. The ability to stifle opponents in that manner has been on display all season—the Sun finished the regular season No. 2 in defensive rating, 0.3 points worse per 100 possessions than the top-ranked Mystics—and it will again be put to the test vs. Chicago in the next round. Certainly Connecticut’s bigs will play a significant role against the Sky, but look for second-year wing DiJonai Carrington to build on a stellar Game 3, which saw her play a team reserve-high 25 minutes in large part due to the defensive pressure she was applying. The Sun have made four consecutive semifinals and are looking to avenge their playoff loss last year to the Sky. Which defense performs best will loom large in deciding the series’ victor.

5. The WNBA’s first-round playoff format remains polarizing.

There’s little debate that this year’s first-round postseason format—which replaced a single-elimination game with a best-of-three series—is a step in the right direction for the WNBA. But how the best-of-three is structured remains a point of discussion. Heading into his team’s series vs. New York, Wade said he was “not a real big fan” of the new structure, which has higher seeds host the first two games and lower seed hosts a potential Game 3. And, as it turned out, Chicago was tasked to emerge victorious in a winner-take-all game on the road, after dropping Game 1 in Wintrust Arena. (It should also be noted that under the previous format, Chicago would have also had a double bye into the league semifinals as a result of holding the No. 2 seed.)

The 2–1 makes travel easier on players, especially considering the league has committed to chartering flights for teams during only the Finals. Plus, as Liberty veteran guard Sami Whitcomb believes, it can also create more intrigue because “we’re the lower seed but we’re at home, so anything can happen.” But it’s fair to wonder whether in future seasons it should move to 1–2 structure to allow higher seeds the opportunity to host a deciding game, especially if the league deems a 1-1-1 option implausible.