Dream Win Sets Fever Up for Fascinating Final Playoff Seeding Scenario

The Indiana Fever's potential playoff seeding scenario became clearer after the Atlanta Dream's win on Wednesday night.

Angel Reese and Sophie Cunningham during an Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream game. | IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

The Atlanta Dream defeated the New York Liberty 83-65 on Wednesday night in a game that had major implications for where the Indiana Fever could finish in the standings and face in the first round of the playoffs.

As a result of this win, the Dream finished the regular season with a 30-14 record. This guarantees that they'll finish as the No. 4 seed and ahead of the Fever, who are currently 28-15 with one game left to play, and also that the Fever won't have home-court advantage in the first round.

This isn't ideal for Indiana, if only because of how great Fever fans are and that Indiana's games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse Arena always seem like they give the Fever an edge.

Then again, Indiana did prove that they can win a three-game first-round series without home-court last year, and did so against the Dream (who they very well could end up playing).

Regardless, Atlanta's win guarantees that the Fever can either finish as the No. 5 seed or the No. 6 seed.

If they beat the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday, they'll be the No. 5 seed and face the Dream. If the Fever lose tomorrow night, the Washington Mystics (assuming they beat the 16-27 Chicago Sky on Thursday) will take the No. 5 seed, and the Fever will fall to No. 6.

Caitlin Clark looks up during an Indiana Fever game. | IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Fever's Result Against Lynx Will Determine Their First Round Fate

Wednesday night's results create a fascinating dilemma for the Fever. A win against the Lynx means that the Fever face the Dream. There's a strong case to be made that this is not an ideal matchup for the Fever, given how the teams have played each other this season and their respective roster personnel.

If the Fever lose tomorrow night, being the No. 6 seed means that Indiana will either face the Las Vegas Aces or the Golden State Valkyries.

The Aces can still technically get the No. 2 seed, but all the Valkyries need to do is beat the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday night to lock that seed down. In that case, Las Vegas would take the No. 3 seed and face the Fever.

Indiana matches up better against the Aces than the Dream and proved it by beating Las Vegas 2-1 in the season series.

Therefore, there's a case to be made that the Fever losing to the Lynx creates a better first-round scenario for them. That's not to suggest that the Fever will try to throw the game against Minnesota in order to get a worse seed and a better matchup, but it does raise the question of whether a loss tomorrow night actually increases Indiana's chances of making a championship run.

What's for sure is that Indiana wants to be firing on all cylinders come playoff time, which is why tomorrow night's game against the Lynx is about more than the final score and how it impacts seeding.