SI:AM | The WNBA Playoff Picture Is Very Nearly Set

But there are still a few things to iron out over the final week.

Wilson (left) and the Aces are battling for playoff positioning as the WNBA regular season comes to a close. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m glad the Pac-12 appears as though it will survive, but I don’t think the reconstituted version is going to be considered a power conference.

In today’s SI:AM:

✅ Week 2 NFL picks
🎙️ Al Michaels interview
🏎️ Azerbaijan GP preview

The finish line is just ahead

With just one week left in the WNBA season, the postseason picture is almost entirely finalized, but there are still a few interesting developments worth watching. While seven of the eight playoff spots have already been clinched, there are still a handful of things left to be decided.

The most obvious race to watch is the chase for the eighth and final playoff spot. While that appears to be nothing more than a competition to see who will get bounced in the first round by a dominant New York Liberty team, that won’t make it any less sweet for the team that’s lucky enough to clinch the final spot. It’s down to a three-team race between the Chicago Sky, who currently sit in eighth, and the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics, who are tied one game behind Chicago.

The Mystics picked up a monumental win over the Sky on Wednesday night, blowing them out 89–58 in Chicago to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt. It was the Sky’s second game since star rookie Angel Reese was ruled out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury, and her absence was clearly felt. Reese leads the league with 13.1 rebounds per game. Entering Wednesday night, Chicago had won the rebound battle in 26 of its 35 games. But with Reese sidelined, the Mystics held the edge in rebounds, 37–32. Certainly that wasn’t the only reason why Chicago got stomped by more than 30 points, but Reese’s absence will be a factor in the final week as the Sky attempt to cling to that last playoff spot.

Perhaps the most intriguing battle is between the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm over the No. 4 seed. Although both teams have locked up playoff spots and are basically assured to finish in either fourth or fifth place, it’s still an important race because first-round seeding has more of an impact in the WNBA than it does in other leagues. The first round of the WNBA playoffs is a best-of-three series, with the first two games played at the home arena of the team with the better regular-season record. The lower seed must get a win in a hostile environment just to get the opportunity to play a clinching game at home. Since the WNBA adopted that format in 2022, only three of the eight first-round series have gone to a decisive third game.

Las Vegas currently sits in fourth place, just one game ahead of Seattle, after both teams won on Wednesday night. They both have four games left to play, including a head-to-head matchup on Sept. 17, the second-to-last gameday of the season. The Aces have won two of the three matchups between them thus far, including a road win in Seattle on July 19, but that was their last meeting and a lot has obviously changed since then. Most notably, the Storm brought back free-agent forward Gabby Williams, who had a breakout performance for silver medalist France at the Paris Olympics.

Williams played the past two seasons with the Storm but was not brought back at the start of this season. She signed with Turkish club Fenerbahçe in July before her standout performance in Paris (15.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.8 steals per game) put her back on WNBA teams’ radar. She’s immediately become a key part of the Storm’s rotation, starting seven of the eight games she’s played and averaging 27.4 minutes per game. 

And since sportswriters are contractually obligated to mention Caitlin Clark in every article about the WNBA in 2024, let’s briefly explore one race near the top of the standings that will have an impact on Clark. Her Indiana Fever are currently in sixth place and can finish no higher than that, because the Storm hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. They can also finish no lower than seventh (they’re currently 1.5 games ahead of the seventh-place Phoenix Mercury), so they’re likely to face either the Minnesota Lynx (currently in second place) or Connecticut Sun (currently in third) in the first round of the playoffs. The Lynx and Sun are separated by just one game in the standings, and while the Sun are trailing, they hold the tiebreaker over the Lynx if they end up deadlocked at the end of the season. They’ll meet on Tuesday in Connecticut in a game that could very well end up deciding the race.

So if you’re a Caitlin Clark fan, who should you be rooting for the Fever to face? Indiana is 1–3 against Connecticut this season and 1–2 against Minnesota. You can make a case that the Fever might stand a better chance against Connecticut in a potential playoff series because those three losses to the Sun all came in the first month of the season, before the Fever turned their season around. But the reality is that either one will be a nightmare matchup. The Sun and Lynx are tied for the best defensive efficiency in the league, which will neutralize the Fever’s primary advantage—their high-powered offense led by Clark (ranked third in points per 100 possessions). And Minnesota and Connecticut are both more than adequate on offense, ranked fourth and fifth respectively in offensive efficiency, while Indiana’s defense is among the worst in the league (11th out of 12 teams). But anything can happen in a best-of-three series.

Michaels and Thursday Night Football return to Amazon Prime tonight for Bills-Dolphins. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Here are our experts’ picks for Week 2’s NFL games.

• Andrew Brandt’s Business of Football column this week is about Dak Prescott’s monster new contract with the Cowboys.

• Jimmy Traina spoke with Al Michaels ahead of his Thursday Night Football season debut.

• Zach Koons has an in-depth preview of this weekend’s F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

• You may be familiar with the Overtime Elite basketball league. Well now there’s also Overtime Select, a new showcase for top girl’s high school basketball players. Elizabeth Swinton has more on the new league and how it’s trying to reach fans.

• MLS midfielder Felipe Hernandez’s contract was terminated over a second gambling offense.

The top five…

… things I saw last night:

5. Shohei Ohtani’s continued pursuit of a 50–50 season. He set a new career high with his 47th homer of the year and also stole two bases to give him 48.
4. Juan Soto’s gritty home run, just two pitches after fouling a ball off his ankle.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s home run robbery.
2. Francisco Lindor’s home run to lead off the ninth inning and break up Bowden Francis’s no-hit bid. The Mets went on to win, 6–2.
1. A’ja Wilson’s 27 points to set a new WNBA single-season scoring record.