Preview and Predictions for AEW and NJPW’s ‘Forbidden Door’: The Lack of Buildup Won’t Be a Detriment

The card for the two companies’ second joint PPV came together at the last minute, but matches this enticing don’t need a compelling narrative hook.

Josh Nason, Wrestling Observer | Jun 23, 2023

If this preview for Sunday’s AEW x NJPW: Forbidden Door seems a little unfinished, that’s because as of 8 p.m. ET Wednesday, when Dynamite was hitting the air, the pay-per-view card itself seemed a little unfinished, seemingly by design. That would change over the following two hours—with more additions on the horizon.

This will be the second iteration of the crossover event between two of the top pro wrestling companies in the world not named WWE, bringing together stars for fresh matchups that many thought they might never see. Despite injuries and scheduling that affected last year’s card, the maiden voyage last June was well-received by fans and sold out Chicago’s United Center nearly instantly.

This year’s edition heads north of the border to Toronto and the sold-out Scotiabank Arena (the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET Sunday). The crowd should be raucous, and, as is the case with most AEW PPVs, the action will be great—especially with the two key matches on top.

But let’s get to the card that had just four matches announced going into Dynamite and eight coming out of it, with more to be added by the time Saturday’s live edition of Collision from Toronto is complete.

It’s unusual not to have a finalized card for a PPV this late, but that seems to be the way that AEW head Tony Khan likes it. It’s becoming a Khan staple, but having only four announced matches going into Dynamite four days before a PPV is something unprecedented, even for Khan.

As a result, that doesn’t leave a lot of time to increase potential PPV buys or create more anticipation for the newly announced bouts. But at this point, I feel like Khan thinks anyone that was going to buy the show has already made their decision regardless of when the full lineup is announced. He’s adjusted to promotional life in the social media era, and, when you have a great track record of success with quality PPVs and consistent buy numbers, it really doesn’t matter when you announce a card as long as you deliver. The rules have changed.

With all that said, here’s the preview for Forbidden Door, where the term “card subject to change” has never seemed more apropos.

Bryan Danielson vs. Kazuchika Okada

To say this is a wrestling fan’s dream match is an understatement. Danielson was not available for last year’s Forbidden Door due to a concussion suffered at Double or Nothing, and thus his anticipated bout with Zack Sabre Jr. was not to be. Since then, all he’s done is feud with Chris Jericho, compete for both the AEW world title and ROH world title, have an outstanding Iron Man match with MJF, and reignite the Blackpool Combat Club into a truly feared faction. Not bad.

Instead of running back the Sabre match, Danielson was given a new opponent: one who, like Danielson, happens to be one of the best wrestlers in the world and is in the conversation as one of the best to ever do this thing called pro wrestling.

Okada, the former multitime IWGP heavyweight champion, has been working tag-team matches since he lost the IWGP world title to Sanada in April, winning the NEVER openweight six-man tag team titles in May. It’s a respite from his years-long run at the top of NJPW and a slight reinvention of how he’s presented. Make no mistake: The classic version will be on display Sunday.

No titles will be on the line. No stipulations are attached to the match. This will simply be two of the best to ever grace the ring going one on one for the first time. It’s the wrestling equivalent of a great meal at a steakhouse. This will be pro wrestling, and Danielson will be more than happy to take the loss in a classic.

Prediction: Okada wins

IWGP U.S. champion Kenny Omega defends against Will Ospreay

One of the shames of the often terrible nature of Wrestling Twitter is that the anti-AEW crowd has convinced itself that Omega is not as good as the hype that surrounds him. As a result, there is a dismissive attitude toward high-profile matches like this one because of “flips” and such.

Allow me to be dismissive of that mindset and tell you to just enjoy what you’re about to witness.

For the uninitiated, this is a rematch from their classic at January’s Wrestle Kingdom 17, a match Wrestling Observer Newsletter founder Dave Meltzer and others have raved about for six months. It’s also the second in a series of matches that will likely conclude in August at AEW’s All In at Wembley Stadium in London.

I wish I could get out of the wrestling bubble for a bit and understand how average fans see Ospreay. He’s ridiculously talented and the heir apparent to Omega in a lot of ways, but given how much talent is in American wrestling these days, does Ospreay stand out to them as much as he does to others? He’s not an AEW regular per se, so how many of the non-NJPW fans appreciate his talent? I digress.

On Dynamite, there wasn’t anything really done to further hype the match. Omega not being on those shows live (a Khan call, according to Meltzer) is an interesting decision, so I’m curious to see how they’ll push this over the top on the two remaining broadcasts leading up to Sunday. Maybe it’s that old way of thinking that I’m anchored to. This match’s placement on the card will be intriguing given that Danielson vs. Okada is the main event of the show.

All that aside, the only way this won’t be another classic is due to an injury. Both are far too good and have come too far to think otherwise. Since Omega won their encounter in Japan, Ospreay will take this one and set up the trilogy in London, aided in some form by the dastardly Don Callis and/or Konosuke Takeshita.

Prediction: Ospreay wins the title

IWGP world champion Sanada defends against “Jungle Boy” Jack Perry

As a non-NJPW viewer, this one really isn’t doing much for me. This will be Sanada’s third title defense since the aforementioned win over Okada, and he offered it up in an open challenge. In Perry, he has someone he can defeat whom AEW is fine with taking a loss.

It’s clear there’s a turn coming for Perry coming off last month’s Double or Nothing, likely to be against his friend Hook, who will be in his corner Sunday. That turn could come as soon as after the match, which will hopefully give Perry some much-needed purpose and foreshadow Hook’s first career loss. This will be fine but isn’t a main attraction. This might be the cool-down match between the two featured matches mentioned above.

Prediction: Sanada retains

AEW world champion MJF defends against Hiroshi Tanahashi

There was some speculation that MJF would “no-show” the match, leading to CM Punk’s taking the spot for a bout that was supposed to happen at last year’s Forbidden Door and thus furthering his claim as the rightful AEW world champion. That will not be the case.

Like Okada, Tanahashi is an all-time great, but age and the rigors of his style have taken their toll. While he still looks the part, he isn’t the same in-ring worker as when he was winning seven IWGP heavyweight titles and headlining major NJPW shows. No one could be.

But he’s still “The Ace,” and there’s still an aura around him. That’s where MJF, a story-line NJPW hater, comes in. While I have been frustrated with the AEW world champion’s lack of matches on TV, there is no doubt he’s an incredible wrestler who puts on must-see matches every time he competes. He will lean heavily into what Tanahashi can do and will make people believe the NJPW star can win his title at several points during the match.

This will be much better than expected and will help elevate MJF even further as his feud with Adam Cole will continue afterward.

Prediction: MJF retains

Owen Hart Tournament quarterfinal match: CM Punk vs. Satoshi Kojima

Punk went from returning to AEW on Saturday to being added to the PPV on Wednesday. Things really do move quickly, huh? The way the company announced the match was a little subdued, to say the least, but he’s on the show, and the reaction he gets in Canada will be something to watch. How much did the last 10 months post–All Out affect his popularity in Canada? We’re about to find out.

From a result perspective, this is as solid a lock as you’re going to get. With all due respect to the former champion in NJPW, MLW, NOAH, All-Japan and NWA and the leader of Bread Club (yes, it’s a real thing), Punk isn’t losing this quickly after coming back.

The interesting side note/story is why Kenta isn’t in this spot against Punk, given the long-running angle that has been running on social media for well over a year. Kenta said earlier this week he wasn’t doing the match (in so many words including some that can’t be written here), but it’s hard to tell what’s real and what’s story line, making this situation even more head-scratching.

Punk will move on in the tournament, likely against old foe Samoa Joe in the semifinals. Prepare accordingly.

Prediction: Punk advances

AEW women’s champion Toni Storm defends against Willow Nightingale

I really like Nightingale and think she could be a standout in AEW if given the ball, but this spot should be for someone from NJPW’s sister promotion, Stardom. I realize Nightingale is the NJPW Strong women’s champion, but many see her as an AEW roster member first. For the second straight year, the AEW women’s title match feels like an awkward fit and not a cross-promotional one in the spirit of the show.

A Nightingale win and subsequent title run would be a great step toward making a long-term star, but I think AEW is saving the title change for Jamie Hayter at August’s All In at Wembley Stadium. (Hayter is English.) Perhaps Hayter will return here for a face-to-face with Storm afterward to begin the slow build to London.

This is a big spot for Nightingale to remove any doubt that she can be a top player in any company’s women’s division. Storm will be game to help her do just that.

Prediction: Storm retains

AEW international champion Orange Cassidy defends against Zack Sabre Jr., Daniel Garcia and Katsuyori Shibata in a four-way

This should be a fun and competitive four-way and yet another great match. Shibata is the current ROH Pure champion, and Garcia desperately wants his rematch which is assumed to be happening at July’s Ring of Honor Death Before Dishonor pay-per-view. Sabre is the current NJPW TV champion and likely wouldn’t be an AEW regular in the U.S., making his winning here also unlikely.

Based on Wednesday’s tag-team match, the action here will be off the charts, with something for everyone. Sabre is incredible, and American fans have been lucky to get a taste of him on AEW TV in recent weeks. Shibata, whose situation with NJPW is an intriguing one following a near career-ending injury in 2017, has been a focus of Khan’s ROH revival and hasn’t disappointed.

Despite Cassidy’s injuries, he will win and continue his 20-plus-defense run with the title. He’s a Khan favorite and a fixture of AEW, and this run has elevated him to a point where even the most stubborn AEW haters have to admit he can go in the ring.

Prediction: Cassidy retains

Blackpool Combat Club (Jon Moxley, Claudio Castagnoli and Wheeler Yuta), Shota Umino and Konosuke Takeshita vs. The Elite (The Young Bucks and “Hangman” Adam Page), Eddie Kingston and Tomohiro Ishii

Multiman tag-team matches are a staple of NJPW shows, so here you go. The BCC vs. Elite feud will rage on, but with some new components in Umino, Takeshita, Kingston and Ishii. This is a good way to keep things going, but seems like more of a placeholder for the next stage as opposed to anything of consequence. I think the BCC will find a way to get a win in a fun match, with Takeshita getting the pin.

Prediction: Blackpool Combat Club wins

Sting, Darby Allin and TBA vs. Chris Jericho, Sammy Guevara and Minoru Suzuki

Sting and Allin’s partner will be announced Saturday night, so let the speculation begin. This will continue to build to Guevara’s split with Jericho and what I think will be a Sting-vs.-Jericho match at All In. Sting matches always deliver in one way or another, but this is here to advance angles more than anything else.

Prediction: Sting, Allin and the mystery man win

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Published Jun 23, 2023

JOSH NASON, WRESTLING OBSERVER