Preview and Predictions for AEW’s ‘Full Gear’: MJF Finally Defends His Title Again

While the event lacks significant emotional stakes, fans will at least be treated to the first PPV defense of the AEW world championship since August.

The streak is over.

After two straight pay-per-views where the AEW world title was not defended, the gold will finally be on the line for paying customers at Saturday’s Full Gear in Los Angeles (8 p.m. ET).

Now officially the longest-reigning world titleholder in company history, MJF will look to extend his run as he defends against former NJPW kingpin and IWGP world titleholder Jay White for the first time.

On paper, there’s a great match on the horizon. But this arguably isn’t even the biggest title defense MJF has had over the past 30 days, which makes the decision to go with this as what I assume will be the evening’s main event an interesting one.

Allow me to take you back to Wednesday, Oct. 25, when it was announced that MJF would defend against former champion Kenny Omega on the following Saturday’s Collision. For wrestling fans, MJF vs. Omega was essentially a dream match and one that you’d expect to have a lot of narrative build to squeeze all the juice out of it.

However, that wasn’t the case. There was all of three days’ notice and really no time to build it other than on social media to the extent you can use that to build general fan interest. The story was that Omega was attempting to thwart MJF’s attempt at the longest title reign, therefore protecting his spot on top of the list. There was also an angle that Omega vs. White at Full Gear (if MJF had lost) would revive a lot of history between the two, albeit in a different company.

Alas, that promotional cake never got to finish baking. The match was pretty great, and it’s hard to complain about getting quality like that for free. But wearing the analyst’s hat, you have to wonder why AEW simply didn’t flip the matches and make MJF vs. White for free and save MJF vs. Omega for the PPV.

Yes, that would have negated the whole story about the longest title reign. But honestly, no one really cared about that, especially because the length of AEW title reigns doesn’t carry as much weight at this point in the company’s history as it does in WWE. You would have a stronger PPV main event and more time to tell that story instead of MJF vs. White, which centers on White stealing the world title belt and calling himself champion.

This feud lacks real emotional heat, which is a problem throughout AEW at the moment. While entertaining, nothing on the show feels particularly hot outside a handful of bouts. It’s a collection of great wrestlers putting on great matches and doing their best to stay off the injured list. There are story lines, but none that are really that compelling. Omega vs. MJF would have been that, but alas, it was not meant to be.

But here’s the point in the preview where I tell you the action will be great despite that lack of emotion. There’s some good stuff on this show and there needs to be as it’s sandwiched between an October and December PPV for the first time. AEW’s days of four PPVs a year are dead, for better or for worse. AEW fans won’t accept a dip of in-ring quality, and they won’t get one Saturday.

With that, let’s get to what’s working and what’s not for Saturday’s show, shall we? As a reminder, these are all the matches made as of Friday morning.

AEW world championship match: MJF vs. Jay White

I broke down how we got here in the intro, but I don’t think there’s any way MJF loses the title Saturday. That defeat has to be reserved for Adam Cole as part of their long-running story line. White has done as good a job as he can with this, but from the start, his overall presentation has been geared more toward fans who already knew him vs. fans who didn’t. On X, I saw a sentiment from someone that upon his debut, White should have been presented more like Jade Cargill was in WWE—an absolute superstar—which I 100% agree with.

But that plays into the whole lack of emotion thing I wrote about earlier. While White’s Bullet Club Gold faction has been wacky and entertaining, it hasn’t elevated him to where it’s believable he could be the company’s top guy. He’s also not that hateable. Rather, he’s a great, entertaining wrestler in a company full of them and hasn’t found that differentiator yet. It’s possible: Just look at Christian Cage right now.

I expect a postmatch angle to push along the MJF/Cole/mystery man in the devil mask story line. Let’s actually talk about that while we’re here.

Prediction: MJF retains

Preshow match: Ring of Honor tag team champions MJF and a partner to be determined vs. The Gunns

I’m not the first person, nor the last, to say that I don’t like how much Tony Khan’s other promotion has been pushed in AEW. It makes things muddled when you’re not only having other promotions’ title defenses on your TV, but you’re including your top stars in doing so. (This is an issue for AEW that extends beyond ROH, but I digress.)

White’s faction mates The Gunns (Colten and Austin) are looking to soften up MJF ahead of his title defense later in the night and win their first ROH gold in doing so. The story has been that MJF rival and former title challenger Samoa Joe may become his partner in exchange for another world title shot. That seems too easy, though. If it’s anyone, why not Cole’s friend and MJF antagonist Roderick Strong as the choice that will keep the story line going?

Continuity aside, when it comes to how a nonchampion can defend titles, I don’t think this is the time MJF loses the belts. Again, that’s waiting for Cole’s eventual return.

Prediction: MJF and surprise partner Strong retain

The Young Bucks (Matt and Nick Jackson) vs. The Golden Jets (Kenny Omega and Chris Jericho)

The stakes are the Bucks’ future AEW tag team title shot vs. Omega and Jericho’s future as a team.

I am going to join the chorus of fans who are wondering what the deal with Matt and Nick Jackson is. After the long ordeal following their involvement in the post–All Out brawl of 2022 involving CM Punk, they joined Omega and “Hangman” Adam Page in signing long-term extensions earlier this year. They haven’t really spoken publicly about their thoughts on how Khan handled the situation, especially how he brought Punk back and essentially gave him his own show before eventually firing him.

If you were to talk to them privately without a chance of a leak, I’m guessing the Jacksons would say they weren’t thrilled with the whole situation but chose to re-sign with AEW vs. WWE due to the schedule flexibility that allows them to spend more time at home. But they certainly don’t seem happy. And that was before the current story line started in which they are, well, unhappy with Omega and his newfound friendship with Jericho that was exacerbated on Wednesday’s Dynamite.

This should be an excellent match, albeit one that is a bit random in how it came together last week. A loss here would continue to increase the Bucks’ story-line displeasure, but I can’t help but think there’s some real-life bleeding into this one. Here’s hoping there’s a big payoff and brighter days ahead for the Jacksons. This will be a dark one, though.

Prediction: Omega and Jericho win

“Hangman” Adam Page vs. Swerve Strickland in a Texas Death Match

Out of any match on the card, this is the clubhouse leader for the match with the most heat. This is a rematch from October’s WrestleDream that saw Strickland pick up a tainted win. The two have feuded ever since with Strickland and manager Prince Nana even breaking into Page’s home while his baby slept. There’s some logical gaps in how that all played out, but let’s move on.

Page wants revenge and by gawd, he’s going to get it in a violent way. It’s a shame Strickland has to lose, but Page is undefeated in his signature match and isn’t going to get the L here. This will serve as a nice comeback after his recent losses and hopefully will keep him in important programs.

His promos leading up to this were also strong and gave me hope he can rise back up to a prominent role. The same goes for Strickland, who is overdue for a title run and needs to get it in 2024.

Prediction: Page wins (and with plenty of bloodshed)

AEW international championship match: Orange Cassidy vs. Jon Moxley

Cassidy remains a target for the anti-AEW crowd to point to as a reason to deride it. The problem for those critics is that he’s a really good wrestler and has been on the run of his life in 2023. He won’t earn Wrestler of the Year nominations, but he probably should get some consideration as he carried Dynamite at points and even main-evented September’s All Out against Moxley.

The international title has exchanged hands more than planned because of injuries to both Moxley and former champion Rey Fénix, finding its way back to Cassidy last month. It’s hard for me to think Moxley will beat Cassidy again, but Moxley got all of a 17-day run the first time around, which might as well have never happened.

This is the hardest match for me to figure out, but I think Moxley needs the title more than Cassidy and whatever plan Khan had initially will get back on track.

Prediction: Moxley wins

AEW women’s championship match: Hikaru Shida vs. Toni Storm

I wish I was looking forward to this, but I’m not. AEW has already overdone the “Timeless” Toni vignettes and character, which started out as really charming, strange and different. Less is more, and it emptied the tank too early.

Shida has never moved the interest meter for me, and her being a multi-time champion hasn’t either. Her defeating Saraya for the title on the 200th Dynamite felt like something done just to commemorate the event rather than an earned moment. Saraya defending against her old partner in Storm would have been better and, wait for it, emotional. Why aren’t we getting that instead?

I can see new signee and Storm obsessive Mariah May accidentally costing Storm the match given her blowoff of May on Wednesday. Shida seems destined to get run over by Jamie Hayter upon her return from injury in early 2024, continuing a meh third title reign until then.

Of course, we could get a Mercedes Moné appearance, as well, which should lead to a challenge for Shida. Khan is promising a signing for Saturday that is both “one of the best wrestlers” and someone that all AEW fans know. Let the intrigue begin.

Prediction: Shida retains

TBS championship match: Kris Statlander vs. Julia Hart vs. Skye Blue

Over the past few previews, I have written several times that Statlander needs a big story to sink her teeth into in order to elevate her. This isn’t it. For the uneducated, Hart has sprayed black mist in the eyes of several opponents (Blue included), which has changed their attitudes. However, Blue rejected a chance to align with Hart but has shown a darker personality while sporting eerie eye makeup—all while wearing a Scooby Doo–themed outfit, which is a bit of a head-scratcher presentation-wise.

I don’t see Statlander losing here, but again, she needs a real rival and threat.

Prediction: Statlander retains

Sting, Darby Allin and Adam Copeland vs. Christian Cage, Luchasaurus and Nick Wayne

We now know that the hourglass is running out on Sting’s career before his final bout at March’s Revolution. That means a few more months of fun multi-man matches as we hurtle toward whatever the grand finale will be. We also know newly signed Ric Flair will be along for the ride, which is a story for a different day.

This will also be the official AEW PPV in-ring debut for Copeland (formerly known as Edge in WWE). It feels like he’s already been in AEW longer than just six weeks as he’s been a regular on Collision. It’s an interesting question of whether he’d be better served as a semi-regular like Sting to make his appearances that much more special, but that remains to be seen.

This is eventually setting up a Cage vs. Copeland singles match, which should be a lot of fun, as will this match. I assume the 18-year-old Wayne is learning a ton from all of the veterans involved in this angle, and that will do nothing but help him out in his young career. But the kid is going to take the pin here as the good guys are going to win to keep this thing going.

Prediction: Sting, Allin and Copeland win

AEW tag team championship match: Ricky Starks and Big Bill vs. LFI (Rush and Dralístico) vs. FTR (Cash Wheeler and Dax Harwood) vs. Kings of the Black Throne (Malakai Black and Brody King)

A Khan booking trope is to put together multi-person or multi-team matches when there’s not a clear story line contender for the champion(s). That’s the case here, and I’m perfectly O.K. with that.

Starks and Bill have been fine as champions, but their relative newness as a team has taken some getting used to. Having said that, it is good seeing Starks getting some run as a champion, even if it’s not as a singles champ.

Black and King recently returned after another long injury-related absence, and, along with Buddy Matthews, have been attacking everyone on Collision. They didn’t bring a clear focus of attack back with them, so a title match will have to do. FTR are as good as they come, which leaves us with the slightly repackaged Rush and Dralístico. There appears to be a focus on building their LFI faction up and specifically Rush, who was re-signed to a reportedly lucrative deal earlier this year.

It feels too early to take the titles off Bill and Starks, who need to keep winning if there’s a desire to really cement them as a team and not a creative dalliance. However, there are good reasons to keep all three contending teams strong in doing so, which is why I’m fascinated to see how this plays out. This should be really, really good.

Prediction: Starks and Bill retain

More From Wrestling Observer: 

• WWE Has Renewed Interest in Kazuchika Okada
• Report: Kenny King Released by Impacted Wrestling
• Tony Khan’s Most Interesting Comments From ‘Full Gear’ Media Call
• Ric Flair Says MJF Has ‘a Gift That So Few Have’
• WWE Schedules First PPV in France