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Will Justin Herbert Go Over 3,000 Total Passing Yards in 2020?

NFL Prop Bet: How Many Yards will Justin Herbert Throw For in 2020?

Justin Herbert was taken by the Los Angeles Chargers with the No. 6 overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. How many yards will he throw for as a rookie?

After starting 224 consecutive games, Philip Rivers’ time with the Chargers is over. Needing to fill that huge void, Los Angeles selected Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Amongst an abundance of 2020 regular season prop options, bookmakers have set Herbert’s total passing yards at 3,400. Under (-130) is the favorite while OVER (-110) is a slight underdog.

Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Following Joe Burrow, who was selected first overall by Cincinnati, and Tua Tagovailoa, who went fifth overall to Miami, Herbert was the third quarterback taken in the draft. During his first year at Oregon (2016), Hebert was the first true freshman to start at quarterback for the Ducks since Chris Miller in 1983. He started the final seven games during a dismal 4-8 season and posted 1,936 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Returning as the Oregon starter during his sophomore season, Hebert led the Ducks to a 4-1 record before suffering a collarbone injury. He returned for the final three games and totaled 1,983 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2017. Herbert started 27 straight games over his junior and senior seasons and closed out his four-year career with 10,541 passing yards, 95 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He added another 560 rushing yards and 13 scores on the ground over 43 games played.

What Does History Tell Us About Rookie Quarterbacks?

Bookmakers have set the bar high for Herbert as just eight rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,400 yards over the last 10 seasons. Arizona Cardinals 2020 MVP candidate Kyler Murray posted 3,722 yards and won the 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year award. The Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (3,725) was the only rookie pivot to exceed the number in 2018. Here are the rookie quarterbacks that have passed for more than 3,400 during the last 10 seasons:

Related Justin Herbert NFL Betting Props to Ponder

Tyrod Taylor currently sits first on the Chargers’ quarterback depth chart, so there is no guarantee Herbert will be the Week 1 starter. In fact, Bovada sportsbook has him as the longshot to be the opening day starter. Herbert not starting in Week 1 is the favorite (-370), while starting in Week 1 is the underdog with a (+235) price. SI gambling analyst Corey Parson suggests Taylor’s relationship with head coach Anthony Lynn gives him a leg up to be the Bolts’ 2020 starter to open the season.

Compared to fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Herbert falls in the middle when it comes to expected total passing yards this season. Burrow will be the Bengals’ Week 1 starter and his over/under is set at 3,800 passing yards. Since it’s unclear whether Tagovailoa will start over Ryan Fitzpatrick, the former Alabama star has his over/under set at 3,200 total pass yards. My money is on the OVER on Burrow and the UNDER on Tagovailoa.

Chargers’ 2020 Offense

Los Angeles is rebuilding on the fly and, once he gets playing time, Herbert will have plenty of weapons around him. Wide receivers Keenan Allen (1,199 yards) and Mike Williams (1,001 yards) both had solid seasons last year and are reliable targets. Running back Austin Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards and eight touchdowns and is under contract through the 2023 season. If he can stay healthy, tight end Hunter Henry has a skill set to be a 1,000-yard receiver.

Bottom Line: Training camp competition between Taylor and Herbert is going to be a heated battle. The Chargers just brought in Pep Hamilton as their new quarterback coach. He previously mentored Andrew Luck at Stanford and then was Luck’s offensive coordinator for three seasons in Indianapolis. That signals Herbert may need some polishing before he hits the field. No matter when he starts, I like UNDER as the best bet on Herbert’s rookie season pass yards.

The Play: UNDER 3,400 Passing Yards (-130)

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