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NFL Saturday Super Wild Card Betting Breakdown: Odds, Plays and Predictions

SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo discusses how sharp bettors are assessing the three games on tap for Saturday’s NFL super wild-card games

Frankie Taddeo

Over the entire NFL postseason last year, the Vegas Whispers sharps crushed the sportsbooks, going 7-0 against the spread (ATS), culminating in a win with Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. The sharp information looks to extend that NFL postseason perfection into this year’s playoffs - commencing with a super wild-card weekend kicking off on Saturday with three of the six matchups.

There are two playoff teams that NFL fans will not see in action this weekend: the defending champion Chiefs and the Packers. The Chiefs posted a 14–2 record in the regular season and earned the top seed in the AFC and a bye in the opening round. In the NFC, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 13–3 record in the regular season, the No.1 seed and a bye in the NFC.

The sharp information out in Vegas had yet another profitable regular season finishing up 2020 68-47-1. The betting plays, supplied only to Sports Illustrated, have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in NFL, NCAA basketball and college football wagering. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas insider, is currently on an amazing 11–3 ATS (79%) run on all football plays.

In NCAA football the respected information stands at 31–21 ATS on the season. UFC bettors, courtesy of Casey Olson’s information, finished 2020 at 210-87-6 ATS (71%) on all wagers for all SI PRO members.

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Let’s dive into the games.

NFL Saturday Super Wild Card Matchups

No. 7 Indianapolis (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) at No. 2 Buffalo (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Moneyline: Indianapolis (+245) | Buffalo: (-286)

Spread: IND: +6.5 (-114) | BUF: -6.5 (-106)

Total: 51 Over: (-108) | Under: 51 (-113)

Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.

Game Info: Jan. 9, 2021, 1:05 p.m. ET / 10:05 a.m. PT | CBS

According to my Vegas sources, nearly 66 percent of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of Bills. The line, which opened at 7.5 points in favor of Buffalo on Sunday at DraftKings Sportsbook, has dropped a full point to the Bills as only 6.5-point home favorites. The total, which opened at 52, has ticked down to the under (61%) and currently stands at 51.

The Bills (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) are arguably the hottest team heading into the playoffs, going 9–1 SU in their last 10 games of the regular season. Over that span, Josh Allen and the AFC East champions posted a lucrative 8–2 ATS record over their last 10 games—including an amazing eight consecutive covers versus the spread to close out the schedule.

Meanwhile, Phillip Rivers and the Colts (11–5 SU; 8–8 ATS) closed out the regular season 4–1 SU, but, more importantly, only 2–3 ATS over their last five games. As they often say, a strong running game coupled with a strong defense will often lead to postseason success (just ask Ray Lewis and the Ravens). Well, the Colts check both boxes, more specifically with rookie Jonathan Taylor, who posted seven touchdowns over the team’s final four games of the regular season. If the Colts have any chance of pulling off the upset, they will need their running attack to lead the way to keep the lethal combo of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on the sidelines. Over the last two months of the season, the Colts’ defense dropped off leading to the belief that one play should be targeted here.

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No. 6 Los Angeles (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) at No. 3 Seattle (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Moneyline: Los Angeles: (+150) | Seattle: (-175)

Spread: LAR:+3. (-104) | SEA: -3 (-118)

Total: – Over: 42.5 (-108) | Under: 42.5 (-113)

Location: Lumen Stadium, Seattle, Washington

Game Info: January 9, 2020 4:40 pm ET / 1:40 pm PT | FOX

My sources in Vegas indicate nearly 56 percent of all wagers on the game have come in support of Seattle. The line, which opened at 4.5 points in favor of Los Angeles on Sunday at DraftKings Sportsbook, has dropped a point and a half to the Seahawks as only 3-point home favorites. The total, which opened at 42.5, has ticked up to the over (78%) and currently stands at 42.5.

The Seahawks (12–4 SU, 8–8 ATS), led by Russell Wilson, closed out the regular season strong, going 4–0 SU and 2–2 ATS over the final month of 2020. The NFC West champions burned their backers, going 4–6 ATS (40%) in their last 10 games.

As for the Rams (10–6 SU, 9–7 ATS), they head into Saturday’s game with several question marks—most notably the status of starting quarterback Jared Goff (hand). The Rams went 1–2 SU in their final three games of the year, highlighted by their shocking 23–20 loss to the Jets as 17.5-point home favorites. The two teams split their matchups this season, with each team holding serve on their home field with the Rams (-3) winning 23–16 in Week 10 and Seattle (-1.5) taking the rematch, 20–9, two weeks ago.

The move toward the over is interesting in this game, as the Rams have played four consecutive games to the under (4–0) and Seattle six of their last seven to the under (6–1). If not for a 35-point fourth-quarter explosion in their 26–23 win over the 49ers in Week 17, the Seahawks would have played seven in a row to the under. Nevertheless, the two clubs combined to play 15 of their last 20 games to the under posted by the oddsmakers.

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No. 5 Tampa Bay (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at No. 4 Washington (6-9 SU, 9-6 ATS)

Moneyline: Tampa Bay: (-400) | Washington: (+335)

Spread: TB:-8 (-113) | WSH: +8 (-108)

Total: – Over: 45 (-110) | Under: 45 (-110)

Location: FedExField, Landover, Maryland

Game Info: January 9, 2021 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT | NBC

Nearly 69% of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of Tampa Bay. The line, which opened at 7.5-points in favor of the Buccaneers on Sunday at DraftKings Sportsbook, has risen a half point to Tampa Bay as only 8-point road favorites. The total, which opened at 46.5, has dropped despite moderate support to the over (56%) and currently stands at 45.

Tampa Bay (11–5 SU, 9–7 ATS), led by the ageless Tom Brady, closed out the regular season strong, going 4–0 SU and 3–1 ATS over the final month of 2020. The NFC South power posted a lucrative 5–2 ATS record over their final seven games. The biggest issue for the Buccaneers is the status of star wide receiver Mike Evans (knee), who led the club with 13 touchdown receptions.

On the other side, the Washington Football Team (6–9 SU, 9–6 ATS) heads into Saturday’s game with a home game despite finishing with a losing record, due to winning the NFC East. Washington, led by a rock-solid defense, finished the regular season going both 5–2 SU and ATS. In addition, buoyed by that defense and a strong running game, the Washington Football Team finished 8–2 to the under—closing out the regular season with five consecutive games to the under posted by the oddsmakers.

Vegas Whispers Play: Two-Team 6 point-TEASER BUF -0.5 / TB -2.5 (-120)

For any official Vegas Whispers plays, as well as any other player proposition wagers that could emerge, be sure to subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO!

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Over the entire 2019 NFL postseason, the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks, going 7–0 ATS and the information is currently 68-47-1 in 2020 on released NFL plays. On Thursday night, the sharps are 13–2 ATS in their plays shared here at Sports Illustrated. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s gambling Vegas insider, finished the 2020 Major League Baseball at 79-60-0 +16.66 units and is currently 31–21 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SI PRO members.

Be sure to check back all week long for the BEST sharp betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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