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2021 AFC Championship Betting Breakdown: Odds, Plays and Predictions

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo breaks down how sharp bettors are wagering on the AFC Championship game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

Frankie Taddeo

“Championship Sunday” will conclude with the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs playing host to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. NFL fans and bettors will be forced to decide if arguably the best quarterback in the league - Patrick Mahomes - will be healthy enough to be play on Sunday after sustaining a concussion in last week’s divisional round win over the Cleveland Browns.

Over the entire 2019 NFL postseason the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks going 7-0 ATS that culminated in a win with Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. The sharp information, from Vegas which has produced another profitable NFL betting campaign with a record of 70-52-1 ATS, will now look to take aim at the Championship games! The betting plays, supplied by Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling insider, have crushed the sportsbooks in NFL, NCAA basketball and college football wagering.

Following Alabama’s 52-24 win over Ohio State in the College Football Championship game, the respected information finished the 2020 season at 32-21 ATS (60%) - including an impressive 7-2 ATS (78%) on all Bowl selections. UFC bettors, courtesy of Casey Olson’s information, finished 2020 at 210-87-6 ATS (71%) on all wagers for all SI PRO members.

Let’s dive into the AFC Championship.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP VEGAS WHISPERS BETTING BREAKDOWN

AFC Championship Betting Breakdown

No. 2 Buffalo (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) at No. 1 Kansas City (15-2 SU, 7-10 ATS)

Moneyline: Buffalo (+145) | Kansas City (-167)

Spread: BUF +3 (-104) | KC -3 (-117)

Total: 54 – Over: (-109) | Under: 54 (-112)

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Game Info: January 24, 2020 6:40 pm ET / 3:40 pm PT | CBS

According to my Vegas sources, nearly 58 percent of all wagers have come in support of Bills. The line, which opened at 2.5-points in favor of Kansas City on Sunday at DraftKings Sportsbook, rose as high as 3.5; only to settle back down to the Chiefs as 3-point home favorites. The total opened at 50.5 and has seen a significant move after strong public support to the over (68%) settling at a current market offering of 54.

Mahomes and the Chiefs (15-2 SU; 7-10 ATS) head into the AFC Championship winners of 10 of their last 11 games. Kansas City’s only loss in that span came in Week 17 when the defending Super Bowl champions rested nearly all of its starters - including Mahomes. What bettors care most about is the concerning trend in 2020 involving Kansas City’s poor record against the spread (7-10 ATS) overall - going 1-8 ATS over their last nine while only covering three of their last 11 games (3-8 ATS).

The oddsmakers have posted this game with the higher total among the two championship games and bettors seem to agree. The Chiefs have gone over the posted total by oddsmakers in three of their last five games. This has not gone unnoticed by public bettors in early wagering as the total has moved three and a half points from 50.5 at the open to 54. The move towards the over has also received sharp support as Buffalo has played three of their last five to the over as well as seven of their last 11 (7-4).

The player proposition market I would target most involves wideout Tyreek Hill. Specifically, I would focus on his total receptions offering - where we currently see DraftKings Sportsbook offering the speedy wide receiver's total receptions at 5.5 juiced heavily to the over (-150). Last week, when Mahomes was forced out of the game, Hill hooked up with backup Chad Henne and came up with the biggest play of the game; converting a gutsy fourth-down play that sealed the win over Cleveland. 

In addition, after a deeper look what pops off the page is Hill's targets over his last 10 ten games: 10, 6, 10, 7, 11, 15, 14, 18, 6 and 10. That has led to reception production of: 8, 4, 6, 3, 6, 13, 11, 9, 4 and 6 - which results in Hill going 'over' his posted reception projection for the AFC Championship in 7 of his last 10 games (70%). At that kind of percentage, Hill's total reception market presents itself as a solid wager - despite the heavy juice of -150. 

The Bills (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) recorded their first playoff win in team history in 16 years in the wild card round and advanced to the AFC Championship after dominating the Baltimore Ravens, 17-3, in the divisional round last weekend. Including the playoffs, Buffalo is now 11-1 SU in their last 12 games. Over that span, Josh Allen and the AFC East champions have posted a very lucrative 9-3 ATS record. Buffalo backers saw their amazing streak of eight consecutive covers versus the spread come to an end in the wild card round when they failed to cover as 7-point favorites in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis. However, Bills bettors returned to winning ways last weekend when the Bills covered as 2.5-point home favorites.

Kansas City's biggest issue in this game will be finding a way to slow down the lethal combination of Allen and star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs set an NFL record this season becoming the first player in history to post 6-plus receptions in 17 of 18 games this season and has amassed 106 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games while adding six touchdowns during that span. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the veteran wideouts total receptions at 7.5 (-106) and his receiving yards at 94.5 (-112). The reliable standout has surpassed his 7.5 receptions in exactly 50-percent of his games (9/18) while only surpassing 94.5 receiving yards in 7 of 18 games (39%). However, upon a deeper dive we discover that more recently Allen has locked in even more with his top target leading to Diggs surpassing both his receptions and yardage projections offered by DraftKings in five of his last seven games (71%). Injuries to the Kansas City secondary could offer a profitable wagering opportunity for all bettors looking to back the over(s) in his player proposition markets.

FREE Vegas Whispers Play: Tyreek Hill OVER 5.5 receptions (-150)

***

The Vegas Whispers sharps have posted a solid 70-52-1 ATS betting record in 2020 on released NFL Plays. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Lead Gambling Insider, finished the 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) at 79-60-0 +16.66 units with NCAA College Football plays wrapping up with a 32-21 ATS - 7-2 ATS on Bowl selections - for all SI PRO members.

Be sure to check back all week long for the BEST Sharp Betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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