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2021 NFL Week 1 Odds Update - Which Games are on the Move?

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo analyzes the sharp line moves already taking place for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.

Frankie Taddeo

With the return of the NFL season just a few months away, Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers play host to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers are currently 6-point home favorites with a total sitting on the game at 51.5.

We will have a betting preview with the Vegas Whispers sharp action here only at SI Gambling as the season gets closer!

The sharp information from Vegas produced another profitable NFL betting campaign - finishing the 2020 regular season with a record of 68-47-1 ATS. Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider Frankie Taddeo has enjoyed successful campaigns sharing information for NCAA basketball Conference Tournaments, 2021 NFL Draft player proposition wagering, The Masters, and Triple Crown horse racing!

Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves.

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2021 NFL Week 1 Odds - Games On The Move

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers

Moneyline: New York (+180) | Carolina (-210)

Spread: NYJ +4 (-110) | CAR +4 (-110)

Total: 43– Over (-110) | Under 43 (-110)

Game Info: September 12, 2021 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT | CBS

There has been strong early support for Carolina in Week 1 at the betting counters. This game opened at -3.5 at some respected shops and has since moved to a -4 on the home favored Panthers. The Panthers will now have ex-Jets quarterback Sam Darnold under center and the sharp steam has been backing the Panthers in early wagering. The former third overall pick of the 2018 draft went just 13-25 as a starter for the Jets but will be looking to turn his career around under Matt Rhule. The former USC star is now surrounded by an offensive cast that includes star running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receivers Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore. 

The Jets are expected to start their first-round pick Zach Wilson in Week 1 but bettors are expecting the Jets to struggle on the road in the former BYU gunslinger’s first NFL action.

Straight From the Books: 

TwinSpires: “The Panthers are the most bet side on the board thus far in Week 1 NFL action,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas.

By The Numbers:

TwinSpires: 78% Tickets, 84% Money on Carolina

FanDuel Sportsbook: 71% of tickets, 83% Money on Carolina

2020 Against the Spread Record:

New York Jets: 6-10 ATS (Home: 4-4, Away: 2-6)

Carolina Panthers: 9-7 ATS (Home:2-6, Away: 7-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Moneyline: Jacksonville (-150) | Houston (+130)

Spread: JAX -2.5 (-120) | HOU +2.5 (+100)

Total: 45.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 45.5 (-110)

Game Info: September 12, 2021 1:00 pm ET / 10:00 am PT | CBS

Jacksonville, who opened as 1.5-point road favorites at some shops in Vegas back in May has seen such strong support that they are now near 3-point favorites at most books. The Jaguars are expecting big things from top overall pick Trevor Lawrence who is expected to bring his winning collegiate prowess to Florida. Jacksonville is facing a team with one of the biggest marks heading into the 2021 season with considerable doubt that quarterback Deshaun Watson will be in a Houston uniform as he faces off-the-field allegations. In addition, Watson has made it publicly known that he does not want to play for the Texans after four seasons. Bettors are wagering that the Jaguars will now have to game plan on containing Tyrod Taylor as opposed to Watson and books are being flooded with early Jacksonville money.

Straight From the Books: 

TwinSpires: “Jacksonville -2.5 is easily the second biggest side of Week 1 to garner serious action. With the hype of rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, combined with the uncertainty surrounding the status of Deshaun Watson we are likely facing liability on the Texans in many games this upcoming season,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas.

By the Numbers:

TwinSpires: 68% Tickets, 79% Money on Jacksonville

FanDuel Sportsbook: 81% Tickets, 94% Money on Jacksonville

2020 Against the Spread Record:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5, Away: 4-4)

Houston Texans: 6-10 ATS (Home:3-5, Away: 3-5)

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Moneyline: Miami (+110) | New England (-130)

Spread: MIA +2.5 (-110) | NE -2.5 (-110)

Total: 45.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 45.5 (-110)

Game Info: September 12, 2021 4:25 pm ET / 1:25 pm PT | CBS

Early sharp money is strongly backing Bill Belichick and the Patriots at the betting counters as small home favorites. The Patriots were major players in free agency in the offseason - making major improvements on both sides of the ball. That has bettors believing Belichick will not allow a second straight losing season in Foxboro under his watch. 

The Dolphins will be a tough task in Week 1 as they are perhaps one of the best young teams in the AFC led by Tua Tagovailoa. Miami won 10 games last season and could witness sharp action as the season gets closer if New England tabs rookie Mac Jones over veteran Cam Newton.

Straight from the Books:

TwinSpires: “New England -2 is currently the third most wagered side of Week 1 in their AFC East matchup with the Miami Dolphins,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas.

By the Numbers:

TwinSpires: 69% Tickets, 77% Money on New England

FanDuel Sportsbook: 52% Tickets, 55% Money on New England

2020 Against the Spread Record:

Miami Dolphins: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1, Away: 4-4)

New England Patriots: 7-9 ATS (Home:5-3, Away: 2-6)

                                                       Photo Courtesy of Las Vegas Raiders

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders

Moneyline: Baltimore (-115) | Las Vegas (+105)

Spread: BAL -4 (-220) | LVR +4 (+184)

Total: 51– Over: (-110) | Under: 51 (-110)

Game Info: September 13, 2021 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT | ESPN

It's difficult to decipher if the line move is more in support of the Raiders' home-field advantage in their first home game with fans at Allegiant Stadium, or a numbers play against an overinflated early line by the oddsmakers. Either way, we have seen a big move here as the Ravens who opened as 6-point road favorites have since moved to only a 4-point favorite.

Bettors believe that new Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley could have the Las Vegas defense in peak form in 2021 after adding star lineman Yannick Ngakoue to a group that already includes Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby. The biggest key in this matchup will come down to how well the Raiders can contain elusive Ravens star Lamar Jackson from taking over with both his arm and his legs.

By the Numbers:

TwinSpires: 62% Tickets, 68% Money on Baltimore

FanDuel Sportsbook: 78% Tickets, 83% Money on Baltimore

This game is witnessing reverse steam as all the money is on Baltimore, however, the line is steaming in the opposite direction to the Raiders.

2020 Against the Spread Record:

Baltimore Ravens: 10-5-1 ATS (Home: 5-3, Away: 5-2-1)

Las Vegas Raiders: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4, Away: 4-4)

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Be sure to check back all week long for the best sharp betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! 

Follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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