NFL Player Props Week 7: Five Bets to Target

Breaking down the best lines before you place your Week 7 NFL player prop bets.

After six weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 17-12 while being +2.85 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.

I went 1-4 last week and felt lucky to get a win after Jonathan Taylor tallied only two rushes in the first half. His 83-yard dash in the third quarter put me in the win column.

If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit ($100 to win $150 with +150 betting line).

When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I expect most of my investments to come on the overside, unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Bet: Over 62.5 yards receiving for Darren Waller (-115)

Darren Waller has 23 catches for 273 yards and one touchdown on 34 targets over his last five starts. The Raiders rank second in passing yards (1,946) behind the Buccaneers (2,105). Their tight ends have 33 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns on 61 targets, which is 26.2 percent of the team's completions (149) and 22.8 percent of their passing yards. Las Vegas’ tight ends had 34 and 35 percent of the team’s completions the last two years, showing how Waller has been underutilized so far.

The Eagles 24th defending tight ends (40/322/5 on 53 targets). They held Kyle Pitts (4/31), George Kittle (4/17), and Travis Kelce (4/23) in check, but the Cowboys (8/94/2) and Bucs (9/75/1) beat their defense for big games. Dalton Schultz (6/80/2) had the most success. The Eagles hope to slow down one outside receiver with CB Darius Slay, and CB Avonte Maddox should hold his own in slot coverage.

I expect Waller to regain a bounce in his step in this matchup.

Bet: Over 23.5 yards receiving for Aaron Jones (-120)

Despite ranking seventh in running back scoring (18.52 FPPG), Aaron Jones has only been on the field for 63.9 percent of the Packers’ plays.

Jones averages 17.3 touches and 3.8 targets, and gained more than 24 yards in each of his two home starts (6/48/3 and 3/51), Jones. Green Bay’s backs have 31 catches for 259 yards and five scores (five catches for 43 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per week).

Washington showed regression defending running backs in the passing games over the past four weeks (20/208/6 on 31 targets), with most of the damage coming from Cordarrelle Patterson (5/82/3). Alvin Kamara (5/51/1) also had success in Week 6.

Jones is on pace to set career-highs in catches (56 over 16 games; 59.5 over 17). He averaged 3.25 catches for 27.6 yards and 0.25 touchdowns over his last 36 games.

Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports

Bet: Over 39.5 yards for one completion for Matthew Stafford (-120)

Matt Stafford has 26 completions over 20 yards, and seven of those plays gained more than 40 yards. He is on pace to set career-bests in both areas (74 and 20), while averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. His wide receivers have 100 catches for 1,488 yards and 12 touchdowns on 152 targets. They average 14.9 yards per catch.

The Lions rank higher than they deserve in pass defense (19th in yards allowed and second in completions allowed) due to opponents attempting only 165 passes against them (lowest in the NFL). Quarterbacks have the highest rating (113.8) versus Detroit, with receivers gaining more than 20 yards on 27 catches (24.1 percent of their 112 completions). Wideouts have 66 catches for 1,077 yards and four touchdowns on 98 targets. They gain 16.3 yards per catch with a high catch rate (67.3).

Three Rams receivers (Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson) have gained more than 40 yards on at least one play in 2021.

Bet: Over 95.5 yards receiving for Davante Adams

Davante Adams has one of the best wide receiver opportunities (11 targets per game) in the league. He already has 46 catches for 668 yards and two touchdowns, putting him on pace for a monster season (130/1,892/6).

His only area of weakness is touchdowns (2) compared to 2020 (18). Adams scored 58 times over 71 games in the previous five seasons.

Adams has gained more 100 yards in three (8/121, 12/132/1 and 11/206/1) of six games this year. Last season, he finished with seven dominant games (14/156/2, 13/196/2, 10/173/1, 7/106/1, 10/121/2, 7/115/1, and 11/142/30) in 14 regular season starts.

The Football Team is 31st in defending wide receivers (99/1,275/9 on 149 targets). They had significant issues against three offenses (LAC–24/278/1; BUF–23/277/2; and KC–19/239/2). However, only Keenan Allen (9/100) gained 100 yards receiving.

Green Bay moves Adams around in formations, creating mismatches in coverage. I have him projected for nine catches for 110 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in Week 7.

 Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Bet: Over 23.5 yards rushing for Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray continues to throw the ball well, putting him on pace for 4,933 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns over 17 games.

Over his first two years with the Cardinals, he rushed for 1,363 yards on 226 carries with 15 scores while averaging 43 yards per game. This season, Murray has gained more than 20 yards on the ground in only two games (5/31/1 and 6/39). His yards per rush (3.1) is well below his previous two seasons (5.8 and 6.2), but his rushing attempts (6.2) are down slightly from the last two years (5.8 in 2019, 8.3 in 2020).

The Texans 31st in rushing yards allowed (848), with runners gaining 4.7 yards per carry. They’ve allowed 11 scores in the run game, and offenses average 29.8 carries per week against Houston. The only rushing quarterback the Texans have faced this season was Josh Allen, who gained 51 yards on 10 rushes with a score.

I expect Murray to find more open running space this week. He is projected to gain 51 yards on eight carries with a 75 percent chance of scoring a rushing touchdown.

When reviewing some of the player props this week, I stumbled onto an interesting possible four-team parlay with each option getting plus-odds for the over in passing touchdowns. Here’s my long-shot gamble:

• Daniel Jones over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+145)
• Matt Ryan over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+170)
• Justin Fields over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+175)
• Kyler Murray over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130)

This wager should pay more than $2,000 for a $50 investment.

More Betting & NFL:

• Week 7 NFL Early Line Movement
• Week 8 College Football Composite Picks
• NBA Futures and Props Betting Guide
• Why We'll Miss the .500 NFL Season

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