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English Premier League Best Bets: Draw in Manchester Derby Offers Great Value
What a week of soccer on—and off—the pitch.
Tottenham has a new manager (COYS!), Ronaldo rescued United again in Champions League and Xavi looks to be headed back to Barcelona.
Xavi to Barcelona, confirmed and here we go! Official statement from Al-Sadd on the agreement completed with Barça. Xavi is back and he’s the new manager. 🔵🔴 #FCB #Xavi pic.twitter.com/fUdSxjbua4
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) November 5, 2021
Before we get into this week's English Premier League bets, let's quickly recap last week:
- Leicester City vs. Arsenal — Under 2.5 total goals: Cashed
- Sadio Mane — Anytime goal: Cashed
- Tottenham vs. Man United — Tottenham to win first half: Loss
Not bad, considering Tottenham had chances to score (goal ruled offside) and kept the bet alive for nearly the entire half. If you love to live bet, the opportunity to grab United to lead before halftime had great odds, and Ronaldo converted a beautiful volley to cash it late (39').
Let's see if we can go 3/3 this Saturday, starting off with one of the biggest derbies of the season.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City; 8:30 a.m. ET
There's obviously a lot of history with these clubs, but let's just focus on the past couple of matches and years.
City has not won a Manchester derby in over two years (0-3-1) and is coming off a shocking 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend. A 5-1 win over Club Brugge in Champions League wasn't as lopsided as the score appears, with City needing four goals in the second half to grab three points.
United, on the other hand, dismantled Tottenham 3-0 and got bailed out by Ronaldo for a 2-2 draw against Atalanta in UCL. Just looking at the recent history, and taking into account the past four Manchester derbies, you would think Manchester United at +370 to win at home against City is a solid bet.
You would be wrong.
United has great players and could absolutely win this game at home on Saturday, but City is the more complete team. More importantly, City has the better manager in Pep Guardiola.
Sure, managers don't play in the game, but with only three substitutions in soccer—they play a vital role in team formation. Pep has that under control with City, while Ole Gunnar Solskjær is still a question mark. Juggling, motivating and picking the squad is why I won't be tempted to take United at +370.
Now, I do think United will score and play with a lot of intensity at home against City. They aren't winning this game—but they aren't losing it either.
This game has all the makings of a late equalizing goal, and if United is trailing, it's easy to envision them being rewarded (or gifted) a penalty to add to the drama. I'm all over the draw at +310, and I'll be hoping for United to take the lead early so they're not opening themselves up to breakaway goals by chasing the game.
I'm tempted to take both teams to score at -188, but I'd prefer to live bet that prop after the match gets underway. If we have a 0-0 scoreline at half, the +310 draw becomes a great hedge opportunity if you feel one team is going to pull it out.
Chelsea vs. Burnley; 11 a.m. ET
I hate Chelsea. I'm a Tottenham fan, so you can understand why. That being said, they are an incredible team that is going to win Saturday.
Do I want to take Chelsea -400 to win?
No. No, I do not.
Moneylines like -400 are great for parlays (which I love to do), but if I'm looking for a great bet to cash, I'm turning to the first-half lines.
Do I like Chelsea at -150 to win the first half?
Yes. Yes, I do.
Chelsea is capable of putting up seven goals in a game (sorry Norwich), but they can sometimes go scoreless for an entire half. In their previous EPL and UCL matches, scoreless first halves were on the menu.
I do not think that happens for the third straight match. With -150 odds, I'm hammering them to beat Burnley before 46'. This is, in my opinion, the best bet you can make of the weekend (and, yes, I bet all sports).
Can Burnley get lucky and nick a goal early? Yes, but they might only have one opportunity at most to do so.
On the road, expect Burnley to park the bus early and absorb pressure, but all it should take is one Chelsea goal to cash this bet. They have more than enough talent to jump out to an early lead, and they are due for a big first half.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Newcastle United; 1:30 p.m. ET
After being rejected by their first managerial choice, Newcastle is reportedly set to appoint Eddie Howe to the position—but expect him to begin coaching after the international break.
That leaves interim boss Graeme Jones in charge of a winless Newcastle (0-4-6) on Saturday. Sitting at 19th in the Premier League table, the Magpies desperately need a win, not just a point, against Brighton.
The Seagulls started the season scorching hot, winning four of their fist five games, but have notched four draws and a loss in their last five. It's important to note Brighton's last Premier League game was a comeback draw against Liverpool—at Anfield.
Brighton is no joke.
With Newcastle conceding the second-most goals (23) in the EPL this season, and playing away at Brighton, I'm going to be betting over 2.5 goals at -110. My thinking here is that Newcastle does everything it can to win, and that will take at least a goal or two, but Brighton is not going to go scoreless at home, so we're going to get at least two goals.
Hopefully, we get those two goals (or more) in the first half with Newcastle jumping out to an early lead. If the Seagulls can score twice at Anfield, they can score twice at home against Newcastle. Don't be worried if they fall behind—it just offers us more opportunities to live bet a Brighton goal.
A 2-1 final for either side is enough to cash this bet, and with a desperate team searching for its first win—let's bet on some some goals and enjoy the match.
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