Betting Roundtable: Patriots-Colts Best Bets
The AFC East-leading Patriots (9-4) head to Indianapolis to face the second-place Colts (7-6) in a matchup that will affect the AFC playoff race.
New England Patriots (9-4) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
- Moneyline: New England (+115) | Indianapolis (-138)
- Spread: New England +2.5 (-110) | Indianapolis -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Dec. 18, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
While the Patriots may lead the AFC East, the Colts are favored Saturday. Now, it’s true that the home team usually “gets” three points. So if playing on a neutral field, Vegas thinks New England could squeak this one out.
HMMMM.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Patriots are coming off a bye on and riding a seven-game win streak after beating the rival Bills in a game where Mac Jones threw just three passes. The Colts have won four of their last five, three of which were the Jets, Jaguars and Texans.
Offensively, both teams are top ten in points per game. The Colts have average 28.5, while the Patriots average 26.9. Across their past three contests, though, Indianapolis has erupted for an average of 34.4 points per game compared to New England’s 25.
Check Week 15 NFL Betting Lines at SI Sportsbook
Defensively, New England allows an NFL-best 15.4 points per game this year and only 7.7 per game across the past three games. Indianapolis’s defense is also very good, averaging 17.7 points allowed across the past three and 21.8 points on the season.
It seems like this could be a close game.
Indianapolis has thrived behind sophomore superstar running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor leads the league with 1,348 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. That’s 300 more yards than the next in line, Joe Mixon, and 350 more yards than Dalvin Cook. In other words, it isn’t even close. But will Bill Belichick find a way to shut down the Colts’s top weapon? Bill Enright explored that possibility here.
Taylor’s rushing+receiving yards prop is 117.5, which says to me they are confident he still has a strong game. New England has surrendered the 11th-most rushing yards (1,297) and the fourth-most receiving yards (704) to running backs this year.
Wide receivers Michael Pittman, Jr. and TY Hilton will have to pick up the slack if Taylor gets shut down. That could be difficult, as New England is allowing only 212 passing yards per game to quarterbacks and only a 55.8% catch rate to wide receivers.
New England's running back duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson has been strong, but the Colts' run defense is top ten in the league. Indianapolis has allowed only 1,053 rushing yards and 474 receiving yards to running backs.
New England's pass catchers will also have a tough time as Indianapolis is allowing only 244 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Jones has only passed for more than that total in five games this season.
New England is 9-4 Against The Spread (ATS), while Indianapolis is 8-5. New England's games have hit the over six of 13 times, while eight of 13 Colts games hit the over.
So, how are the betting analysts at Sport Illustrated betting this game? I asked them for their favorite picks for Saturday’s tilt.
Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
SI Betting and Fantasy's Jen Piacenti:
I get it. Indianapolis has been scoring a lot of points. But do you really think coming off a bye that New England will let Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor go on a scoring spree? No way. Taylor is a stud and will still have a good game, but I don’t see this one erupting for over 46 points. It baffles me that Vegas has the Colts as the favorites here, but maybe they know something we don’t. All I can say is: I am taking the team with the better record who is also getting the points. It just makes sense. I never thought there would be a time Bill Belichick wasn’t given enough credit, but it seems like it is here. Give me the Pats and the points.
BEST BETS: Patriots +2.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)
SI Betting's Matt Ehalt:
To quote the legendary Ray Parker Jr.: "I ain't afraid of no ghost." I'm not buying that the Patriots are going to slow down Jonathan Taylor to the point that it's a massive disappointment. Do I expect him to have a ceiling game? No. But do I think he can get you 20-25 fantasy points? Yes. Let's remember that Taylor still tallied 19.7 PPR points against the Buccaneers, whose rush defense is far superior to New England's. I'm taking the over on his rushing prop and not looking back. I also am backing the Colts here in a must-win game. I'm not sure New England will dictate this game the way it wants, and I'm just not sold on the idea that the Patriots are a great team. Let's take the Colts to win and cover.
BEST BETS: Jonathan Taylor over 93.5 rushing yards (-118), Colts moneyline (-138), Colts -2.5 (-110)
SI Fantasy's Craig Ellenport:
I can make a case for either of these teams, but here's the direction I'll go: As good as the Patriots' defense has been in recent weeks, stopping Jonathan Taylor will be a challenge. I'm not about to call Bill Belichick lucky, but don't forget that he faced the Titans without Derrick Henry and the Browns without Nick Chubb (D'Ernest Johnson put up 157 scrimmage yards in Chubb's place against New England). The Patriots haven't faced an elite RB in more than a month. On top of that, this game is simply more important to the Colts. Belichick is not one to get caught looking ahead, but his game next week against the Bills is far more important. As far as props go, I'll look to the Colts' No. 2 offensive weapon. If the Patriots try too hard to neutralize Taylor, then I can see Michael Pittman Jr. coming in with an anytime touchdown.
BEST BETS: Colts -2.5 (-110) Michael Pittman Jr. Anytime TD (+165)
MMQB'S Gary Gramling:
That number is pretty good—I had it at Colts –1 on a neutral field, so –2.5 in Indy is pretty much right. In light of that, I’ll play the total in a game that I think stays within a possession one way or another, with neither team asking its quarterback to do anything wild. We know the Colts want to force-feed Jonathan Taylor and keep things cautious with Carson Wentz, especially against a Bill Belichick defense. But I also don’t expect New England to open it up with Mac Jones (and that’s based on more than the 46/3 run-pass ratio we saw last time out). Running the ball against this Indianapolis defense is a challenge, but it’s not a great matchup for the Patriots’ passing game either. The Colts’ secondary is good early in the down, and they fare well against play-action because of their strength at linebacker. Offenses that have given them trouble this year tend to utilize slow-developing, bootleg-heavy play-action concepts, and while Jones is probably capable it’s not what he does best. Turnovers can always throw things out of whack, but I think both these teams are comfortable taking things into the fourth quarter sitting in the teens.
BEST BET: UNDER 45.5 (-110)
SI Betting's Frank Taddeo:
Hunter Henry has exceeded this betting projection in seven games and faces an Indianapolis defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. A deeper dive reveals that 11 opposing tight ends have surpassed 25.5 receiving yards against the Colts through 13 games. That number will grow to 12 after Saturday's game.
BEST BET: Hunter Henry over 25.5 Receiving yards
SI Video's Doug Vazquez:
By now, the last game plan put together by Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels is stuff of legend. I do not expect a similar script when the Pats play in the comfy dome confines in Indianapolis on Saturday night. Heading into the playoffs and with a first-round bye hanging in the balance, Mac Jones needs to get that arm some more reps as we enter the home stretch. Prior to the Wind Bowl a couple weeks ago in Buffalo, Kendrick Bourne emerged as a huge bright spot in this New England offense. With a very favorable price of +220, I like Mac’s chance of finding KB for a touchdown.
BEST BET: Kendrick Bourne Anytime TD (+220)
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