Fantasy Playoffs Begin With a Nightmare Matchup for Jonathan Taylor

Can the NFL's leading rusher overcome Bill Belichick and the Patriots' defense?

What happens when an unstoppable force collides with an immovable object?

It’s an age-old question and we’ll finally get an answer in Week 15 when the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor faces the Bill Belichick-coached Patriots defense.

Taylor is leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,348) and rushing touchdowns (16) and is the only non-quarterback in the running for league MVP. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games and has scored at least once in every game since Week 3.

Robert Scheer/IndyStar/USA TODAY Network

Needless to say, anyone with the Colts’ second-year rusher on their fantasy teams is basking in the glory as he guides them into the fantasy playoffs. In PPR formats, Taylor leads all backs with 312 points (32 more points than the No 2. running back) and has a dominant 24.0 point-per-game average. The odds-on-favorite to earn the NFL’s rushing crown scored less than 20 points just once in the last 10 games -- and in the game he didn’t get to 20, he finished with 19.7.

His most impressive game came in Week 11, when he scored FIVE touchdowns and combined for 204 scrimmage yards. His opponent that week was the Bills, who before attempting to contain Taylor, had only allowed four rushing TDs in their previous 10 games and held all running backs except Derrick Henry to less than 67 yards. Taylor’s rushing TDs matched what they had previously given up all season and had 133 more rushing yards than their previous 10-game average.

So if Taylor is the unstoppable force…what’s all this hype around the immovable object?

For about two decades, it’s been a common fear of fantasy managers (and NFL offensive coordinators) to have their stud offensive playmaker face a Belichick defense, and 2021 is no different. Doesn’t matter if it’s a running back, wide receiver or tight end, the Patriots do everything in their power to stop their opponent’s star player.

Let’s neglect the Patriots’ first two games of the year, as they played less than mediocre offenses in the Jets and Dolphins and no star player really exists from those teams (maybe rookie WR Jaylen Waddle has emerged for Miami, but he wasn’t at that level in what was his NFL debut). Instead, let’s start with Week 3, when Alvin Kamara rushed for 89 yards and scored a receiving touchdown. Not too shabby considering 17.8 fantasy points was the most allowed by the Patriots up until Week 12, when somehow, someway Dontrell Hilliard managed to produce 19.3 fantasy points. Hilliard’s outlier was the most fantasy points a running back has scored on New England all year.

Here’s how some other stud running backs performed against the Patriots:

• Week 4: Leonard Fournette finished with 13.9 points. He averages 18.6 ppg.
• Week 6: Ezekiel Elliott finished with 11.9 points. He averages 15.4.
• Week 8: Austin Ekeler finished with 18.4 points. He averages 21.6.
• Week 9: Christian McCaffrey finished with 10.6 points. He averages (when healthy) 18.2.

Some other running back performances--albeit of lesser talent--against the Patriots include Myles Gaskin (7.6 points), David Johnson (5.1 points), Devin Singletary (3.6 points).

The amazing thing about New England’s defense is they can shut down the passing attack just as well.

Here’s the list of wide receivers that have scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Patriots in 2021:

• Chris Moore (Texans)
• CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)

That’s it. That’s the list. Two receivers managed to net 20 points against the Patriots secondary.

Week 15 is the first week of the fantasy football playoffs. No one in their right mind is going to bench a stud like Jonathan Taylor…FULL STOP…no one should be benching him!

But temper your expectations?

Absolutely!

Especially knowing Bill Belichick and his defensive coaches and players have had a full two weeks to prepare for 2021’s best running back. 

More fantasy & NFL:

• Week 15 Waiver Wire Report
• Fantasy Playoff Strength of Schedule
• Week 15 IDP Waiver Wire
• Week 15 Dynasty Stock Watch
• NFL Week 15 Power Rankings