NFL Week 16 Spreads, Bets and Picks: Rams, Dolphins to Cover

Our experts are backing the road teams in Week 16, with the Bills, Rams and Dolphins garnering significant action.

The NFL playoff picture is coming into shape with just three weeks remaining in the regular season. The Packers are the only team that has clinched one of the 14 playoff spots thus far, but more spots can be claimed in Week 16.

This week's slate features several intriguing matchups, including Saturday's doubleheader featuring Browns-Packers and Colts-Cardinals. The Bills and Patriots meet in Foxboro in a matchup that could decide the AFC East crown.

There are also plenty of games being affected by COVID-19, with the potential for several of the game's best players to be sidelined.

Check Week 16 Lines at SI Sportsbook

Photo credit: Adrian Kraus/AP

Before our bettors provide their best bets for Week 16, here's a look at the similarities and differences among their bets.

• Four of our experts are wagering on the Bills-Patriots clash and the majority expect the the Bills will cover as underdogs.
• It's a clean sweep in the Rams-Vikings tilt and our experts believe the Vikings' playoff chances will take a major hit.
• Three of our experts are taking the Dolphins to stay hot and cover Monday night in the Big Easy.
• The Titans are home underdogs and that's not scaring any of our bettors.
• One of our experts expects a shootout in the desert, and another believes the Colts will continue to apply pressure to the Titans.
• The AFC West clash between the Raiders (-1.5) and Broncos has garnered one bet for each team to cover.
• Two of our bettors are targeting the AFC North battle between the Ravens and Bengals (-3) and they are split on their bets.
• Two of our experts like the Packers to continue to be an Against The Spread (ATS) machine and cover a large number at home.
• The Chargers are dealing with COVID, but that's not deterring our bettors from taking them to cover a double-digit spread in Houston.

Here is our criteria for picking games:

• All odds from SI Sportsbook
• Each analyst must pick five games
• Three of the bets must be against the spread or over/under
• The remaining two picks (if all five aren't ATS or O/U) can be on the moneyline (but at least one of those picks must be on an underdog)
• We believe transparency is paramount in the world of sports betting, which is why we entrust Sharp Rank to keep track of all our picks/performance

Will Laws' Best Bet: Chargers -10

Coming off last Thursday’s loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers will be well-rested and motivated to hold onto their playoff spot in the crowded AFC race. Los Angeles has struggled to stop the run, but Houston is not the team to take advantage of that weakness as the NFL’s worst rushing offense at 3.2 yards per carry. Even if Los Angeles is down a couple of key pieces on offense due to COVID-19 (which may not come to pass after the NFL loosened protocols for vaccinated players), it shouldn’t be too much to ask for newly minted AFC Pro Bowl starter Justin Herbert to outscore the Texans’ Davis Mills-led offense by double digits.

Will's Season Record: 29-15

Casey Olson's Best Bet: Colts + 1

Christmas Day features a matchup between two teams likely to make the postseason, yet recent performances would raise questions. The Cardinals look to bounce back after last week’s poor showing as a 13-point favorite against the Lions, losing 30-12 in a head-scratcher. They’re 3-4 in their last seven after starting the season 7-0. The Colts, on the other hand, started 0-3 but have since gone 8-3, most recently beating the Patriots handily, 27-17. While the Colts are coming in healthy and playing their second straight Saturday game, the Cardinals will be on short rest and beat down. Although Kyler Murray is back, he’s looked mediocre and frustrated out there, and won’t have DeAndre Hopkins, his favorite target, to help the cause. It doesn’t help that James Conner is questionable with his heel issue.

Casey's Season Record: 37-36-1

Jen Piacenti's Best Bet: Colts-Cardinals Over 49

I’m looking at the highest game total of the week, with the smallest point spread, and I am smashing the over. Yes, Kyler Murray is without DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, the Cardinals lost to the Lions last week. But, no, their offense is not broken. Meanwhile, the Colts are surging with a lot to play for, and they should be fired up after taking down the Patriots last Saturday. Arizona has allowed an average of 100 rushing yards per game across the past three contests, and that includes a big game by Sony Michel. They have yet to face a running back like Jonathan Taylor. Arizona is about to get shredded on the ground, and the Cardinals are going to strike back—even against a strong Colts defense. Kyler has too many weapons— heck, Kyler IS a weapon. Both of these teams are 9-5 ATS and I don’t want to pick a winner, but the Colts have hit the over in 8 of 14 of games this year while the Cardinals have gone over in 7 of 14. Both ground games get going this week, Kyler bounces back and maybe Carson Wentz even passes for more than 100 yards.

Jen's Season Record: 56-40

Frank Taddeo's Best Bet: Jaguars +1.5

The Jets had zero players voted to the Pro Bowl for the second consecutive year. The Jets' already bad offensive line will now be without star guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (COVID), and head coach Robert Saleh (COVID) will also miss the game. In total, as of print, the Jets are expected to be without 15 players due to the virus. The Jaguars are not an ideal team to back but the Jets could virtually be fielding a preseason starting lineup on both sides of the ball. Both clubs are 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, but Jacksonville should be able to pressure Zach Wilson for much of the game as New York will be without its entire left side of the offensive line (Vera Tucker and Mekhi Becton). Grab the 1.5-point spread while you can and hold your nose.

Frank's Season Record: 38-48

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For a complete list of spreads for NFL Week 16, check out SI Sportsbook

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