Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Best Bet: Browns at Steelers

A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between the Browns and Steelers.

It is hard to believe but we have reached the final Monday Night Football game of the 2021 regular season (there will be a Monday night Wild Card game this year for the first time). and for Pittsburgh fans it may also mark the last time at Heinz Field for two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger.

My information here at SI Betting, sharing respected information from Las Vegas, had a solid weekend of college football bowl wagering. We will now set our sights on improving upon our NFL record, which currently stands up over 12 units on the season.

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Will Pittsburgh, which is 5-2-1 at home this season, emerge victorious against an AFC North foe they have beaten in seven of the last 10 matchups? The Steelers, who are just 3-5 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, will hope to extend their current two-game home winning streak after earning victories over Tennessee and Baltimore.

Cleveland, which is just 2-5 on the road, will look to snap a three-game losing skid away from FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns, despite being three games under .500 on the road, have rewarded bettors with a 4-3 (ATS) mark in those games. Cleveland is just 2-4 ATS over their last six games.

Over his illustrious career Roethlisberger has thrived on Monday Night Football, posting a 17-6 (.739) mark in 23 games. 

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends and Info

• Spread: Cleveland Browns +2.5 (+100) | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Cleveland (+120) | Pittsburgh (-143)
• Total: 41– Over (-110) | Under 41 (-110)
• Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: CLE 46% | PIT 54%
• Game Info: Monday, Jan. 3, 2022 | 8:20 pm EST | ESPN

The line has dropped from its opening of Cleveland (7-8 SU; 7-8 ATS) as 3-point road favorites over Pittsburgh (7-7-1 SU; 6-9 ATS) to now being underdogs. The total, which opened at 40.5 has also ticked up to 41.

The Browns head to Pittsburgh looking to break out of a recent slide that has seen them go 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS over the last month. In their last game on Christmas Day, Baker Mayfield’s four interceptions were instrumental in the club’s 24-22 loss at Green Bay. If Cleveland is to come away with a victory, it will need to depend on its third-ranked rushing attack (144.9 rushing yards per game) led by Nick Chubb. The fourth-year standout, who is third in the NFL with 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, will now face the league’s worst run defense, surrendering 142.7 yards per game on the ground.

Photo credit: Jeff Lange / USA TODAY Network

On the other side of the ball, bettors and oddsmakers are perplexed on what to expect from Pittsburgh with their playoff hopes fading. Pittsburgh uncharacteristically lays claim to the NFL’s worst defense -- and they also shockingly own the league's 29th-ranked rushing offense at 87.6 rushing yards per game. I say shockingly because the team possesses star first-round pick Najee Harris in the backfield. The talented rookie, who has struggled to consistently post solid rushing numbers (less than 62 rushing yards in eight of 15 games), has found his stride of late, rushing for 90-plus yards in two of the last three games. Against the Browns' 10th-ranked rush defense (105.9 yards per game), Harris produced one of the best games of his rookie campaign, gaining 91 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with Cleveland back in Week 8.

In the passing game, star wideout Diontae Johnson has drawn 11-plus targets in 10 games and is in line for solid production against the Browns thanks to strong target volume. Johnson has posted double-digit PPR fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games. Pittsburgh will likely lean heavily on Johnson once again on Monday night.

As we continue to stress, if you are under the assumption that backing home teams in the NFL is a blind profitable endeavor this season you need to pay closer attention. Home teams are just 107-131-2 (45.0%) ATS, while more specifically home underdogs are a disappointing 43-50 (46.2%) ATS this season.

Despite playing at home with strong emotions for their Hall of Fame-bound signal caller, it is simply too hard to back Pittsburgh. Cleveland, with its strong running game, has drawn respected attention in Las Vegas.

NOTE: Normally we have player proposition wagers, but due to the COVID-19 outbreak sportsbooks are not currently listing many major markets at the time of this publishing.

BET: Cleveland +2.5 (+100)

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-7 ATS / Props 16-12 +6.75 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 45-36 ATS & Props +12.12 Units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)