Back to the Futures: Jonathan Taylor Makes Push for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year

Analyzing the best values among NFL futures odds, including Jonathan Taylor's push for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.

It’s Week 17 of the NFL season and it’s the perfect time to check on some futures bets!

As is always the case in the NFL, there continues to be twists and surprises.

The NFL and NFLPA announced Tuesday changes to the COVID-19 protocol that should limit some of the variance we have seen in recent weeks. With both vaccinated and unvaccinated players returning as soon as five days after symptoms, and with vaccinated players no longer being subject to weekly testing, most teams will be close to full strength entering the final two weeks of the regular season. With 94% of NFL players vaccinated, that makes it a little easier to make some smart wagers.

So, let’s look at a few places to find some value!

Check the Latest NFL Odds at SI Sportsbook

Super Bowl Winner

Here are the current SI Sportsbook odds to win SuperBowl LVI:

SI Sportsbook Super Bowl LVI Future Odds

The Chiefs and Packers are favored in their conferences, and that makes a lot of sense. There’s still value in each of those picks. But if I am looking for a bigger payday, I’d rather turn my attention to the Cowboys at +1000.

If the Cowboys can keep their red-hot, opportunistic defense firing on all cylinders and get their offense back on track - like it was Sunday against Washington - the Cowboys legitimately have a chance to win it all. You’ve heard the saying “defense wins championships." Well, it’s not so much that the Cowboys' defense limits points, it’s more that it find ways to help score more points. The Cowboys average an NFL-best 30.5 points and, yes, that includes the Dak Prescott “slump.” The Cowboys are healthy and at full-strength, and they could be getting hot at just the right time.

But if you want even better value, I like the Titans at +1600. The Titans' defense has “Titan’d up” over the last few weeks, allowing an average of only 12 points per game across the last three contests. We saw what they can do this past week with A.J. Brown back in the mix, and Derrick Henry is waiting in the wings. If they Titans can get fully healthy into postseason, they have the power to go all the way.

AFC East Winner

The Bills are now heavily favored to win the AFC East after their beatdown of the Patriots this past Sunday.

Bills -700
Patriots +550

With these odds, I’m jumping on the Patriots. Both teams are 9-6 and split the season series, with each team winning on the road. Buffalo has the tiebreaker edge via division record, since the Patriots lost to the Dolphins in Week 1.

Next up for the Patriots is the Jaguars, and they end the season against Miami. I can see the Patriots taking both of those. Sure, Buffalo has an even easier time with the Falcons and the Jets ahead, but nothing is a lock. Remember, the Bills lost to the Jaguars in a measly six-point effort in Week 9. Anything can happen.

There’s no value in betting the Bills, but a lot on the Patriots - if you believe.

NFC West Winner

The Rams are not as heavily favored for their division as the BIlls—even though they now have a better record (11-4) than the Cardinals (10-5).

Rams -330
Cardinals +250

The Rams have Baltimore and San Francisco in Weeks 17 and 18. Should they win both of those matchups? Yes. Will they? I doubt it. This team has been wildly inconsistent. Even last week’s win was ugly with Matt Stafford throwing three interceptions. The Rams are beatable, and there’s still a pathway for the Cardinals to win the division, but Arizona first has to get through the Cowboys. There’s no way I am laying $330 to make $100 on the Rams, but I could be tempted to take this bet for Arizona.

Comeback Player of the Year

It’s a two-horse race and has been all season. I still like the value here for Joe Burrow.

Dak Prescott -654
Joe Burrow +500

Do I like Dak Prescott to win this? Yes. But do I like him enough to lay $654 to win $100. Nope. Burrow, on the other hand, I would take a flyer on.

After putting up a spectacular 525-yard and four-touchdown game against the rival Ravens on Sunday, Burrow and the Bengals could play their way into this division title. They are now officially favored at -225, with the Browns at +500 and the Ravens at +600. Burrow and Prescott both deserve this award, but the value is with Burrow.

MVP

For MVP, the race looks like this:

SI Sportsbook MVP Future Odds

If you want to bet on Jonathan Taylor at +600, I understand why. The sophomore running back is smashing records, and the Colts are 9-0 when he rushes for 100 yards and 0-6 when he doesn’t. If that isn’t MVP-worthy, I don’t know what is.

However, the last time a non-QB won this award was 2012 (Adrian Peterson). Since 1957, a non-QB has won the award only 18 times. As far as QBs go, Aaron Rodgers does more with less, and may or may not be playing with a fractured or COVID-toe (we can let the internet decide). I think it’s likely he takes this home two years in a row.

Offensive Player of the Year

If you want to bet on Taylor as a favorite, he’s currently neck and neck with Cooper Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year.

SI Sportsbook Offensive Player of the Year Future Odds

I don’t know how the AP is going to choose between Kupp and Taylor. What I do know is: Rodgers won’t be winning this one.

The safe bet is for Rodgers to win MVP and Taylor to win OPOY. But wouldn’t it be cool if it were Taylor for MVP and Kupp for OPOY?

I have to imagine voters could be thinking that way, too. I like the idea of betting JT for both awards and hedging with Rodgers and Kupp.

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Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook

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