2021 Orange Bowl: College Football Playoff Betting Preview - Michigan vs. Georgia

Betting insight and analysis for the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup featuring No. 2 Michigan battling No. 3 Georgia.

Oddsmakers expect the more competitive College Football Playoff semifinal matchup will involve No. 2 Michigan facing No. 3 Georgia.

Do not mention that to No. 4 Cincinnati, who already felt disrespected ahead of its announced matchup with No. 1 Alabama. 

Georgia appeared to be on track for an undefeated season until it ran into Nick Saban and Alabama in the SEC Championship game.

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That loss dropped the Bulldogs to No. 3, and they will now face Big Ten Champion Michigan. The Wolverines are riding an impressive five-game winning streak that includes back-to-back wins over ranked foes No. 7 Ohio State and No. 17 Iowa.

The questions bettors now must answer: Can Michigan follow the winning formula laid out by Alabama or will Georgia bounce back with a statement victory? Is it a wise investment to grab the plethora of points with the Wolverines in the underdog role or is Georgia simply too powerful and too motivated off the embarrassing loss to fade?

Let’s dive in and break it all down!

Photo credit: John Bazemore/AP

No. 2 Michigan (12-1) vs No. 3 Georgia (12-1)

Spread: Michigan +7.5 (-118) | Georgia -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Michigan (+240) | Georgia (-333)
Total: 45 – Over (-119) | Under (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: MICH 62% | UGA 38%
Game Info: Friday, Dec. 31, 2021 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

The line has bounced around since No. 3 Georgia (12-1 Straight-Up (SU), 8-5 Against The Spread (ATS)) opened as a 7-point favorite to a peak of an 8-point demand over No. 2 Michigan (12-1 SU; 11-2 ATS). Georgia is currently a 7.5-point favorite.

The Bulldogs are 7-4 ATS when they have been favored by at least 7.5 points.

Georgia (12-1) has the No. 7 scoring offense (39.4 points per game), led by quarterback Stetson Bennett. The senior signal caller will face a Michigan defense that ranks fourth in the nation, allowing 16.1 points per game.

Prior to the SEC Championship blowout loss to Alabama, Bennett had thrived in the role of ‘game manager’ by completing 64% of his passes for a SEC-best 10.1 yards per completion. Bennett’s favorite target is tight end Brock Bowers, who leads the team with 11 receiving touchdowns. Bowers paced Georgia with 10 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs will need that kind of production against a Michigan defense that has only surrendered four passing touchdowns over its current five-game winning streak.

Bennett has been asked to stay within Kirby Smart’s scheme thanks to the Bulldogs' top defensive unit that leads the country in scoring defense (9.5 points per game). To put this squad in perspective: The Bulldogs have given up only 11 total touchdowns this season, by far the fewest in the country. However, Bennett made several critical mistakes against Alabama, including a costly pick-six in the second half that put the game out of reach. He will need to rebound in a big way if Georgia hopes to win.

Georgia's ground game features Zamir White (10 rushing touchdowns) and James Cook (7 rushing touchdowns), whom lead the nation’s 30th-ranked rushing attack at 194.8 rushing yards per game. White and Cook may potentially face tough sledding on the ground against a Michigan run defense that has taken its play to another level over the last month only allowing three rushing touchdowns over the last five games.

Photo credit: Darron Cummings/AP

Michigan (12-1) is looking extend its five-game winning streak and earn a berth into the College Football National Championship. The Wolverines have rewarded bettors over that span by posting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark, which expands to an ultra impressive 8-1 ATS over their last nine games. The Wolverines have won outright (Ohio State +6.5; Wisconsin +2) their only two games as underdogs.

As reported here at Sports Illustrated, Michigan running back Blake Corum, who has been dealing with an ankle injury for over a month, is fully recovered ahead of the beginning of the College Football Playoff. Corum, who forms a dynamic duo with Hassan Haskins, is second on the team with 939 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns. Haskins leads the way for the Wolverine’s 10th-ranked rushing offense (223.8) in the country, posting 1,288 yards and 20 touchdowns.

In the passing game, junior quarterback Cade McNamara has done just enough to guide Michigan to five consecutive wins, which includes victories over Ohio State and a 42-3 blowout win over Iowa in the Big Ten title game.

While McNamara has not topped 169 passing yards in three of the five wins, it's his solid ball security (eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions) that has allowed Michigan to dominate its opponents with its imposing running attack.

As we know, a handful of bowl games have already been canceled and others are in jeopardy because of COVID-19. The most important thing sports bettors must do is adjust betting philosophies involving Bowl games. For decades, respected money would look to invest early and get the best lines. However, with the pandemic now affecting games, bettors should look to wait until close to kickoff to place any wagers.

The hook on this line is alluring, but despite nearly 62% of all wagers being placed on the underdog Wolverines, oddsmakers have refused to drop the line in any way. That is very telling this far out from kickoff. Respected money in Vegas believes value can be found in backing over the total.

SI BET: Over 45 (-110)

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2021 SI Betting NCAA Football: 13-12-1 ATS

2020 SI Betting NCAA Football: 31-21 ATS

2020 SI Betting Bowl Selections: 7-2 ATS

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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