2021 Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss - Betting Lines, Odds and Trends

Betting insight and analysis for the New Year's Day Sugar Bowl matchup featuring No. 7 Baylor taking on No. 8 Mississippi.

This year’s Sugar Bowl matchup of No. 7 Baylor taking on No. 8 Mississippi is a virtual coin flip, according to oddsmakers.

The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 21-16 upset win over No. 9 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game as 7-point underdogs. Over that aforementioned eight-game span, Baylor has posted an impressive 6-2 ATS mark. Upon a deeper dive, the Bears have thrived in the role of an underdog going 4-1 ATS this season.

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Off that impressive victory, which stretched the team’s winning streak to four, the Bears will face SEC foe No. 9 Mississippi. The Rebels, who have won eight of their last 10, have earned victories over ranked foes No. 22 Arkansas and No. 23 Texas A&M over the second half of the season.

Let’s dive in and break this matchup down!

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Sugar Bowl Betting Breakdown

No. 7 Baylor Bears vs. No. 8 Mississippi Rebels

• Spread: Baylor +1 (-110) | Mississippi -1 (-110)
• Moneyline: Baylor (+100) | Mississippi (-125)
• Total: 55.5– Over (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
• Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BAY 53% | MISS 47%
• Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 | 8:45 pm EST | ESPN

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

The line has held steady since No. 8 Mississippi (10-2 Straight-Up -SU, 7-4-1 Against the Spread -ATS) opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 7 Baylor (11-2 SU; 9-4 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.

Baylor has the No. 17 rushing offense (214.9 rushing yards per game) led by running back Abram Smith. The senior tailback will now face a Mississippi defense that has struggled to stop the run, ranking 102nd in the nation, allowing 183.0 yards per game on the ground. The Bears, who have won 11 of 13 games this season, have been a solid investment for bettors to back, posting a 9-4 ATS mark on the year.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi will be looking to close out the season on a high note. Since Oct. 9, the Rebels are 7-1 SU and have rewarded bettors over that span posting a 5-3 ATS mark. Ole Miss is a road loss at Auburn away from stringing together eight consecutive wins behind junior quarterback Matt Corral. The sensational signal-caller has guided the Rebels to the 4th best offense in the nation, averaging 506.6 total yards per game.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon is expected back from a hamstring injury that has forced him to miss the last two games, including the Big 12 Championship game. Freshman Blake Shapen shined in the upset win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, completing 82.1% of his passes and three touchdowns. However, Shapen has been ruled out of the Sugar Bowl due to a shoulder injury sustained in the victory.

The Bears will need Bohanon at full strength using both his legs and arm. Besides being 4th in the Big 12 in passing yards (2,160) and 5th in the conference in passing touchdowns (17), Bohanan has been a weapon on the ground scoring the second-most rushing touchdowns (9) on the team.

In the passing game, senior wide receiver Tyquan Thornton leads the club in receptions (61), receiving yards (946) and receiving touchdowns (9). Over the last eight games, Thornton has hauled in six touchdowns. The Bears will need that kind of production against a Mississippi defense that ranks 101st in the country, allowing 428.8 total yards per game to opposing offenses.

On the ground, Baylor will feature Abram Smith (12 rushing touchdowns) and Trestan Ebner (9 rushing touchdowns). The solid duo is easily the key to a Bears win facing a run defense that has had issues stopping the run.

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Ole Miss signal-caller Matt Corral has thrown for 3,328 yards and 20 passing touchdown passes while also adding 11 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, senior wideout Dontario Drummond leads the team in receptions (67), receiving yards (924) and receiving touchdowns (8). In the backfield, Jerrion Ealy has posted a team-high 703 rushing yards while Snoop Conner leads the Rebels with 13 rushing touchdowns. The Rebels’ ninth-ranked rushing attack (224.7 rushing yards per game) will face a stout Baylor run defense that has only allowed 118.8 rushing yards per game on the ground.

Both Corral and Bohanon are quarterbacks who can win the game either via the air or on the ground. However, this game will be decided by the Bears’ dominant rushing attack. Respected money in Vegas is backing Baylor, who proved in the Big 12 title game without Bohanon that 2021 is a special season for the Bears. Let’s ride the momentum of his return.

SI BET: Baylor ML (+100)

As we know, bowl games continue to be canceled, and others are in jeopardy because of Covid-19. The most important thing sports bettors must do is adjust betting philosophies involving Bowl games. For decades, respected money would look to invest early and get the best lines. However, with the pandemic now wreaking havoc, bettors should look to wait until close to kickoff to place any wagers.

2021 SI Betting NCAA Football: 13-12-1 ATS

2020 SI Betting NCAA Football: 31-21 ATS

2020 SI Betting Bowl Selections: 7-2 ATS

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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