2021 Cotton Bowl: College Football Playoff Betting Preview - Alabama vs. Cincinnati

A deep analysis of the historical College Football Playoff betting trends for the Alabama-Cincinnati game, along with best bets.

Cincinnati enters its Cotton Bowl matchup against top-ranked Alabama as an underdog, and a fairly big one at that as the number has sat at or right around 13 since the matchup was first announced. It is said that good teams win and great teams cover, and it’s the latter that we’ll be discussing here.

The playoff semifinals have been routinely criticized for their lack of intrigue.

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Brandon Wade/AP

Every once in a while, you’ll get an NFL playoff spread that creeps into the double digits with some notable ones even getting in the teens.

But the CFP is a different animal, and one of the biggest criticisms of the way the sport picks its champion is that there is usually one semifinal that is a complete dud.

Of the 16 Playoff semifinals including this year, seven have or will feature double-digit spreads and one year (2019) had both games with double-digit spreads. The favorites are 4-2 Against The Spread and 6-0 Straight-Up thus far in said scenarios.

Cincinnati's obviously not the first double-digit dog to take the field in a Playoff game, and it’s doubtful they’ll even be the last with Playoff expansion soon to come.

But a look at how they’ve fared shows that with multiple weeks to gameplan, the favorite (usually Alabama) is the one to side with.

2015: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State
Result: Alabama wins, 38-0

A slow, scoreless start to the game in the first quarter gave way to a dominating finish. Once the Crimson Tide got going, there was no stopping it and Alabama rolled.

2016: Alabama (-13) vs. Washington
Result: Alabama wins, 24-7

Bama wasn’t in real danger of losing this similarly dominating defensive performance, but the cover was in some doubt into the fourth quarter with the Tide nursing a 10-point lead. A Bo Scarbrough touchdown early in the final frame put Bama backers into covertown against a Huskies offense that really couldn’t do anything.

2018: Alabama (-15) vs. Oklahoma
Result: Alabama wins, 45-34

The first time a double-digit Playoff favorite didn’t cover was Bama’s semifinal against the Sooners. It started out looking like anyone with a Tide ticket would waltz to the window as it took a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. The electric Kyler Murray brought his team back in it and got the margin down into the single digits.

After recovering an onside kick with 4:23 left, Alabama bled the clock out on a purely academic final drive for its victory, but it came oh so close to covering by the end, opting to kneel and end the game on the doorstep of cashing.

ESPN Broadcast 2018 Alabama-Oklahoma Game

2018: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame
Result: Clemson wins, 30-3

A 23-3 halftime score meant there was never a doubt for Clemson. It cruised to the finish against an outmatched Fighting Irish team.

2019: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma
Result: LSU wins, 63-28

A similar no-doubter. The only question was why this number was so low as LSU’s offense smashed records all season.

2020: Alabama (-19.5) vs. Notre Dame
Result: Alabama wins, 31-14

The biggest spread of the Playoff era also had one of the most dastardly backdoor covers. The score was never truly in doubt as Alabama took a 31-7 lead in the fourth quarter. But with nothing left to play for except for pride, the Irish went on an 14-play, 80-yard drive to cover with 56 seconds left as quarterback Ian Book scored.

Which brings us to 2021.

If you’re into taking Cincinnati, its elite defense could hold Alabama down due to the fact that the Tide are without one of their primary receiving targets, John Metchie. But Alabama still has plenty of firepower to both win the game and cover. Choose wisely.

Butch Dill/AP

No. 1 Alabama (12-1) vs No. 4 Cincinnati (13-0)

Spread: Alabama -13 (-118) | Cincinnati +13 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama (-568) | Cincinnati (+370)
Total: 57.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Friday, Dec. 31, 2021 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

Moneyline odds pick: Alabama -568

In a game that will largely come down to individual matchups, the Tide is simply too strong.

Spread pick: Alabama -13

Over/under pick: Under 57.5

Cincy’s defense is good enough to keep Alabama from running away with this to the degree they truly blow the Bearcats off of the field and rack up this amount of points.

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