2021 Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame - Betting Lines, Odds and Trends

Betting insight and analysis for the New Year's Fiesta Bowl matchup featuring No. 9 Oklahoma State facing No. 5 Notre Dame.

This year’s Fiesta Bowl matchup of No. 9 Oklahoma State taking on No. 5 Notre Dame will feature two of the best college football teams in the nation who have rewarded sports bettors Against the Spread (ATS) in 2021.

The Fighting Irish, who are on a seven-game winning streak, have won 11 of their last 12 games overall this season. Over that aforementioned seven-game streak, Notre Dame has posted a perfect 7-0 ATS mark. Upon a deeper dive, Notre Dame is a 24-13 home loss to No. 4 Cincinnati away from an undefeated season and a likely berth in the College Football Playoffs.

Check the Latest Bowl Game Odds at SI Sportsbook

On the flip side, Oklahoma State heads into the Fiesta Bowl looking to avenge being upset by No. 7 Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game as 7-point favorites. Prior to being upset by the Bears, the Cowboys had ripped off victories in 11 of 12 games. Their lone defeat prior to the Big 12 title game came against Iowa State. Oklahoma State’s highlighted wins include victories over ranked foes No. 7 Baylor and No. 14 Oklahoma in the regular season.

For bettors the question that must be answered is what kind of impact will head coach Brian Kelly moving onto LSU, while also taking several coaches, have on Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl? Will Marcus Freeman be able to step in and not miss a beat against a formidable Oklahoma State team that is 11-2 this season?

Let’s dive in and break it all down!

Paul Sancya/AP

Fiesta Bowl Betting Breakdown

No. 9 Oklahoma State (11-2) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1)

Spread: Oklahoma State +2 (-110) | Notre Dame -2 (-118)
Moneyline: Oklahoma State (+105) | Notre Dame (-133)
Total: 45 – Over (-110) | Under 45 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: OKST 45% | ND 55%
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | ESPN
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

The line has held steady since No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1 Straight-Up (SU), 9-3 ATS) opened as a 2.5-point favorite over No. 9 Oklahoma State (11-2 SU; 9-3-1 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.

Notre Dame has the No. 21 scoring offense (35.3 points per game), led by quarterback Jack Coan. The senior quarterback, who has 20 touchdown passes on the season, will now face an Oklahoma State defense that has been outstanding, ranking eighth in the nation allowing only 16.8 points per game. The Fighting Irish, who have won 11 of 12 games this season, have been a solid investment for bettors to back by posting a 9-1 ATS mark over their last 10 games.

Notre Dame tailback Kyren Williams, who posted his second consecutive 1,000 yard-plus rushing season in South Bend while adding a team-high 14 rushing touchdowns, has opted out of the game as he prepares for April’s NFL Draft. Williams, who has 31 total touchdowns in 25 career games at Notre Dame, will undoubtedly be missed. It will be interesting to see whoever Notre Dame tabs for lead work as William’s replacement fares against a stout Cowboys run defense that ranks fifth in the nation in rushing yards allowed (89.2).

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State will be looking to end the season on a winning note after being upset by Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. Prior to that loss, the Cowboys posted a 8-1 SU record which also rewarded bettors over that span with an ultra impressive 8-0-1 ATS mark. Junior quarterback Spencer Sanders, who has accounted for 24 total touchdowns, has had ball security issues with six interceptions over his last two games. The dynamic signal caller, who has helped the Oklahoma State offense post 36.3 points per game over their last six games, will need to take better care of the ball against a Notre Dame defense that has 20 takeaways on the season.

Tim Heitman/AP

Sanders' top target in the passing game is senior wide receiver Tay Martin, who leads the club in receptions (70), receiving yards (942) and receiving touchdowns (7). Martin has 7-plus receptions in four of the last seven games, while notching five touchdowns over that span. The Cowboys will need that significant production from Martin against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 40th in the country only allowing 212.0 receiving yards per game.

On the ground, Oklahoma State relies heavily upon senior running back Jaylen Warren, who spearheads the ground game with 1,134 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.

Oklahoma State leads the FBS in sacks (55) and their front seven anchored by freshman Collin Oliver’s team-high 11.5 sacks could make things very uncomfortable for Jack Coan if the Irish are unable to establish a consistent run game with the defection of Williams. Respected money in Vegas is backing a strong defensive performance from both teams, which will result in a low-scoring affair.

SI BET: Under 45.5 (-120) (Buy hook)

As we know, bowl games continue to be canceled and others are in jeopardy because of Covid-19. The most important thing sports bettors must do is adjust betting philosophies involving Bowl games. For decades, respected money would look to invest early and get the best lines. However, with the pandemic now wreaking havoc, bettors should look to wait until close to kickoff to place any wagers.

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2021 SI Betting NCAA Football: 13-12-1 ATS

2020 SI Betting NCAA Football: 31-21 ATS

2020 SI Betting Bowl Selections: 7-2 ATS

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook

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