Two Reasons Why You Should Bet the 49ers to Beat the Packers

The future is unwritten, but history points to an upset when San Francisco visits Green Bay.

Nothing trumps stats and analysis when it comes to doing your homework before placing a bet. It’s all about the data. Well, it’s mostly about the data.

History is hard to ignore.

The Packers begin their playoff journey Saturday night with a divisional-round game against the 49ers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay had the NFL’s best record in 2021 and came into this game as a six-point favorite. The Packers’ NFL-best 13 wins this season includes a 30-28 victory at San Francisco in Week 3.

Unfortunately for the Packers, history is not in their favor.

William Shakespeare once wrote, “The past is prologue.” We can’t ignore what’s happened in the past, and two historical notes could be really bad news for the Packers this weekend:

1. Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 vs. the 49ers in the postseason. Rodgers is likely to win his fourth NFL MVP award. He passed for 4,115 yards with 37 TDs and just four interceptions this season. That includes a two-TD effort in Week 3 against the 49ers. But he has yet to defeat San Francisco in the playoffs. That includes a divisional-round loss in 2012, a wild-card loss in 2013 and a loss in the NFC Championship Game just two years ago. For a guy whose career TD:INT ratio is nearly 5:1, Rodgers has a pedestrian five TD passes with three INTs in his three playoff games vs. the 49ers.

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2. The 49ers’ 23-17 wild-card win at Dallas last week is significant: The 49ers have played the Cowboys in the postseason seven times. The last four winners of a San Francisco-Dallas playoff game have advanced to win the Super Bowl. Overall, in six of their seven playoff matchups, the winner has at least reached the Super Bowl. These teams hadn’t met in the postseason since 1994 when the 49ers went on to win Super Bowl XXIX. Sure, that’s a long time ago. But still… history. Can’t ignore it.

So history says the 49ers not only cover but come away with a win Saturday night. Maybe Shakespeare takes San Francisco and the points. But it was The Clash frontman Joe Strummer who once said, “The future is unwritten.” It’s not that history is being ignored. Here’s another way to look at it: Based on history, the Packers are due.