NBA Most Improved Player Future Odds: Ja Morant Emerges as Heavy Favorite

Ja Morant's strong season has made him the heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook to be named the NBA's Most Improved Player.

Voting history for the NBA’s Most Improved Player has not been closely contested in recent years.

Knicks forward Julius Randle won the award last season with 98% of the first-place votes. The season before that was closely contested between Brandon Ingram and Bam Adebayo (Ingram won with 42% of the first-place votes). But beyond that, most winners have commanded the majority of the vote.

The same may go for this season.

Grizzlies guard Ja Morant is a heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook to win the league’s Most Improved Player award for his play in his third year. I believe Morant has essentially already locked it up (and the books seem to agree). But as part of this NBA futures series for SI Betting, I’m making the case for the favorite, a value bet and a sleeper.

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Jacob Kupferman/AP

Grizzlies guard Ja Morant -400
Hornest forward Miles Bridges +750
Cavaliers guard Darius Garland +900
Spurs guard Dejounte Murray +1100
Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons +5000
(All stats are entering Feb. 16)

The Favorite: Ja Morant (-400)

Morant went from entertaining to elite in the span of a season. His coming out party came in the play-in tournament against the Warriors and the ensuing playoff series against the Jazz that was Grizzlies’ reward for beating Steph Curry and Golden State in their building. Morant averaged 30.1 PPG against Utah in the first round, a clear sign that something was coming. Still, no one could have expected this.

The Grizzlies have the third-best record in the league and sit in third place in their conference. Morant deserves the credit for Memphis’ meteoric rise in the standings. He increased his scoring average from 19.1 PPG to 26.4 PPG, his rebounding numbers jumped from 4.0 to 5.9 and his steals shot up from 0.9 to 1.2. Outside shooting is still the one hole in his game, but he can get into the paint at will and averages more points in the paint than anyone.

Morant is an All-Star starter in his third season and has an outside case for MVP (+1300). His leap is more akin to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s in 2017 than any other recent Most Improved Player winner. Antetokounmpo’s scoring average improved from 16.9 to 22.9 that season and made his first All-Star team, also as a starter.

The numbers, the highlights and his team’s record all support Morant’s candidacy and status as the favorite. Barring something truly unexpected, this award is his for the taking, though it seems Morant and Memphis’ eyes are set on much loftier goals.

Value Bet: Darius Garland (+900)

Garland is the mainstay in the Cavaliers’ backcourt, perhaps the biggest surprise team in the Eastern Conference.

Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio both suffered injuries that left more scoring and playmaking responsibilities on Garland, Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2019 who played just five games at Vanderbilt before being taken fifth overall.

The extra responsibility presented by injuries to his running mates allowed for Garland to explode in his third year in the Association. He’s averaging a team-best 20.3 PPG, an increase from his 17.4 PPG clip in his sophomore season. Garland is also seventh in the league in assists per game (8.0), another jump from 6.1 last season. His field-goal and free-throw percentages are both up, though his three-point numbers took a slight dip. It all adds up to his first-ever All-Star appearance Sunday in Cleveland.

The Cavaliers won 22 games last season. They surpassed that total in early January and keep going. Garland works very well with Cleveland’s big men Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley, and the front office acquired Caris LeVert from the Pacers at the deadline to pair with Garland because this team is a legitimate contender. Garland’s career is on a similar trajectory to Morant’s, though to a lesser degree. He’s an All-Star leading his team in Year 3 and the top seed in the conference is very much in play.

Sleeper: Desmond Bane (+6000)

That Morant and Bane are both contenders for this award is just a testament to Memphis’ recent draft successes. Bane is in his second season and has nearly doubled his scoring average from 9.2 PPG as a rookie to 17.6 this year. He’s a tough defender and reliable shooter (41.3% from three) who has only missed four games this season. Bane will also compete in this year’s three-point contest.

Bane went from starting 17 games in his first season to becoming an every-night starter for the third-seeded Grizzlies. His rebounding numbers are up along with his assist numbers and he’s not afraid of anyone—just ask LeBron James. Bane is a big reason why Memphis hasn’t missed a beat with forward Dillon Brooks’ sustained absence. There’s a reason Bane’s teammate Morant is the favorite to win this award, but Bane’s leap is worth a mention, and maybe even a dart throw.

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