NBA Sixth Man of the Year Future Odds: Tyler Herro Separates From the Pack

Miami guard Tyler Herro is the heavy betting favorite to be the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year.

The NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award has the heaviest favorite of all of the league's end-of-season, individual honors.

Heat guard Tyler Herro is in rare air, averaging 20 PPG off the bench. If you think that makes him a lock for the award, you’re right. He’s a massive favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year. The award generally goes to the highest bench scorer and that’s Herro, who’s putting together the fifth-highest scoring player from a reserve in NBA history.

I’m not going to argue that the award is Herro’s, though I’m also not in the business of betting on such a heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook.

In this ongoing NBA futures betting series, I’m making the case for the favorite, a value bet and a sleeper pick to win each of the league’s end-of-season awards.

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Jacob Kupferman/AP

Heat Guard Tyler Herro -1000
Hornets forward Kelly Obure Jr. +1300
Cavaliers forward Kevin Love +3000
Hornets Forward/Center Montrezl Harrell +4500
Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson +6000
(All stats are entering Feb. 16)

The Favorite: Tyler Herro (-1000)

Sixth men have averaged 20 PPG four times in NBA history: Lou Williams did so twice in the last five years, Ricky Pierce did it in the 1989-90 season and Eddie Johnson accomplished that feat in the 1988-89 season. Unsurprisingly, they were all named Sixth Man of the Year. Herro is on the cusp of joining that elite group—he averages 20 PPG on the dot for the first-place Heat.

Herro, in his third season in the league, is a massive favorite to claim the award. He’s second in scoring for Miami after increasing his scoring average nearly five whole points from a season ago. That bump didn’t come without Herro becoming a larger component of the Heat offense. He leads the team in shot attempts per game (17.3) despite coming off the bench. Though Herro’s contributions for Miami surely start with scoring, his assist numbers have gone up slightly from 3.4 to 3.9 per game as his usage rate soared from 23.5 to 29.1 this season.

Most importantly for Herro’s case, he hasn’t disqualified himself by starting too many games. Herro has only started 10 games for Miami, while some other candidates like Jalen Brunson and Jordan Poole have started 30-plus and others like Buddy Hield and Anfernee Simons have become starters for their teams. Herro is a walking bucket off the bench with four 30-point games to his name already. The Sixth Man is his.

Value Bet: Kevin Love (+3000)

Who would’ve thought the player who made the most important defensive stop for the Cavaliers in their 2016 championship would become a $30-million sixth man? I’m sure Love didn’t see this coming, and his frustrations over the past three seasons (during which he played a combined 102 games) were well-documented. But he has embraced his bench role for a fun, young Cavaliers team that’s defying expectations.

Love is averaging his fewest points per game (14.3) since his sophomore season in Minnesota and his rebounding average (7.3) is a career-low. That comes with the territory when you’re playing a career-low 22.3 minutes per game. But in a vacuum, Love’s championship career notwithstanding, 14 points and seven rebounds is great production off the bench. When you take into account that Love taking a backseat for the next generation of Cavaliers players is an endearing story and you have a compelling case for Sixth Man. Narrative and numbers? What’s not to Love?

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson (+6000)

Sixth Man of the Year is not a stranger to repeat winners.

Williams won the award in 2015 and again back-to-back in 2018 and 2019 and Jamal Crawford did so in 2010, 2014 and 2016. So, there’s plenty of precedent for Clarkson to win the award in consecutive years.

The issue with Clarkson’s case is his numbers are down across the board. His scoring has fallen from 18.4 PPG to 15.5 and his shooting numbers have taken a hit as well. He won Sixth Man last season when the Jazz ran away with the top seed in the West. That’s not the case this season—the Jazz are in fourth place.

The recent injury to Jazz forward Joe Ingles, a consistent presence and playmaker off the bench, could lead to more opportunities for Clarkson. Ingles, oddly enough, was runner-up to Clarkson for the award a season ago. The Jazz could use some extra buckets off the bench moving forward and that’s what Clarkson does best.

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