March Madness: Top Seeds Against the Spread

Breaking down the good, the not-so-good and the ugly when it comes to the top 16 teams and their ability to cover the spread.

The top four seeds in the NCAA tournament historically fare very well against seeds 13-16. The top 16 teams are 513-63 against the bottom 16 teams all-time. That’s an 89% clip. Pretty good odds.

But if you’re betting against the spread (ATS) on those top teams, it’s not as easy as just penciling in the No. 1 seeds of the world, especially when spreads are eclipsing 20 points.

So how do seeds 1 through 4 fare ATS? There’s a large disparity between the top teams from a season-long betting perspective that you should be aware of before blindly betting on double-digit lines.

Chris Coduto/USA TODAY Sports

I organized the top 16 teams into user-friendly tiers: the Good, the Not-So-Good and the Ugly. Simple enough, right?

The Good are teams that cover the spread more than 55% of the time this season, according to OddShark college basketball game logs. The Not-So-Good are teams that cover between 50.0% and 54.9% of the time. And the Ugly are teams that cover 49.9% of their games or worse.

The Good

No. 1 Arizona

Record: 31-3
Record over last 10 games: 9-1
ATS record: 19-13-2
ATS record over last 10: 5-5
Championship Odds: +600
Round of 64 Spread: TBD

The Wildcats were one of three teams in DI to win 30 games this season and they were the only team to do so in a power conference. That kind of success leads to some pretty large spreads—the highest being -29—and Arizona covered the majority of them. The Wildcats were favored in 32 of their 34 games and were 1-1 ATS and SU as an underdog (neutral vs. Michigan, at Tennessee). The recent dip ATS is more indicative of a few bad beats (two games they failed to cover by a half-point were double-digit wins) than a downward trend for Arizona.

No. 2 Auburn

Record: 27-5
Record over last 10 games: 6-4
ATS record: 19-12-1
ATS record over last 10: 2-7-1
Championship odds: +1400
Round of 64 Spread: -15.5 vs. Jacksonville State

The Tigers have been on a downward swing ever since a narrow 74-72 win over Georgia on Feb. 5—they were 16-point road favorites that night. The following game, they lost to Arkansas 80-76 on the road, their first defeat since November, and have fallen three more times since. Auburn is 1-3-1 as a double-digit favorite in its last five games and was giving 9 points to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament when it lost, 67-62. The Tigers may be a team to avoid betting with the spread going forward, and -2000 on the moneyline against JSU isn’t offering much value.

No. 3 Tennessee

Record: 26-7
Record over last 10 games: 9-1
ATS record: 20-13
ATS record over last 10: 6-4
Championship odds: +1800
Round of 64 Spread: -17 vs. Longwood

After an 11-5 start, the Vols won 15 of their final 17 games and covered 11 of them despite facing six top-25 teams during that stretch. They’re fresh off an SEC tournament title, which they won by 15 against a streaking Texas A&M squad—the spread was Tennessee -6.5. UT is 6-7 when favored by double digits and failed to cover four of its last five games when giving 10-plus points. For as good as the Volunteers were this season, they were underdogs seven times. They were 3-4 ATS and 1-6 SU in such games.

No. 3 Texas Tech

Record: 25-9
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 21-13
ATS record over last 10: 5-5
Championship odds: +2200
Round of 64 Spread: -15 vs. Montana State

The Red Raiders haven’t gone on any sustained runs this season; they’ve just been solid throughout. Their last six games have been troubling for bettors though. Texas Tech covered just once (-8 against Iowa State) and failed to cover the other five, losing twice outright as a favorite (at TCU, at Oklahoma State). TTU got points in eight games and went 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Red Raiders covered some massive spreads early on in the year (as high as -30), but that naturally cooled off as Big 12 play dragged on and single-digit spreads and even being installed as an underdog became the norm.

No. 4 Arkansas

Record: 25-8
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 20-12-1
ATS record over last 10: 7-2-1
Championship odds: +6600
Round of 64 Spread: -5 vs. Vermont

The Hogs had one of the more impressive midseason turnarounds in recent memory. After a 10-5 start (6-9 ATS), Arkansas won 15 of its last 18 and covered the spread in 14 of those games. The Razorbacks went 4-1 ATS as an underdog but won just two of those games (at LSU, vs. Auburn). In non-conference play, Arkansas covered spreads as high as -33.5 and was 7-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Its most recent outing against Texas A&M, an 82-64 loss as a 6-point favorite, was uninspiring, but largely stands out as a fluke in a long stretch of consistently covering.

No. 4 Providence

Record: 25-5
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 17-13
ATS record over last 10: 5-5
Championship odds: +15000
Round of 64 Spread: -2.5 vs. South Dakota State

Providence hasn’t done a lot to inspire confidence down the stretch. It went 1-3 against the two tournament teams it played over the last few weeks (Villanova and Creighton) and three of its most recent wins came in overtime against lesser teams (Depaul, Butler, Xavier). The oddsmakers are clearly on to the Friars, installing them as 2.5-point favorites over the Jackrabbits. The last time Providence played, it was thrashed by Creighton, bowing out of the Big East tourney with an 85-58 loss. The Friars were underdogs nine times this season, though they did win seven of those games outright. Still, they’re only 10-11 ATS as favorites.

The Not-So-Good

No. 1 Gonzaga

Record: 26-3
Record over last 10 games: 9-1
ATS record: 15-13-1
ATS record over last 10: 5-4-1
Championship odds: +300
Round of 64 Spread: -23.5 vs. Georgia State

Top-ranked Gonzaga was favored in every game this season. Even in its early-season bouts with top-five teams like Texas, UCLA and Duke, the Bulldogs were at least 7-point favorites in each game. In fact, those were three of the only four games the Zags weren’t double-digit favorites (-9.5 vs. Alabama is the other exception). Of course, Gonzaga did lose three times this season as a heavy favorite, but its ATS record should be taken with a grain of salt when 20-plus point conference wins don’t cover the spread.

No. 1 Kansas

Record: 28-6
Record over last 10 games: 8-2
ATS record: 17-17
ATS record over last 10: 7-3
Championship odds: +1200
Round of 64 Spread: TBD

From a bettors’ standpoint, the Jayhawks hit their peak at the perfect time. KU covered its last four games, including in the Big 12 Championship game against Texas Tech (-2). Kansas, only listed an underdog once all season on the road (+3 against Baylor, which it didn’t cover), was frequently favored by double digits and that will surely be the case against whichever 16 seed the Jayhawks draw. They are 3-2 over their last five as 10-plus point favorites. Don’t let Kansas’s suspect ATS record put you off. They’re more than capable of smashing large spreads through at least the first two rounds of the tourney.

No. 1 Baylor

Record: 26-6
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 16-15-1
ATS record over last 10: 4-6
Championship odds: +1200
Round of 64 Spread: -21 vs. Norfolk State

The Bears have struggled down the stretch when it comes to covering. Of course, two of those games were big wins at Texas (-1.5) and vs. Kansas (-3) that they did successfully cover. Baylor was favored in 30 of its 32 games this season. Five times, those spreads eclipsed 30 points, but the lines were much closer in recent weeks. The Bears were only installed as double-digit favorites twice in the last month—they won both but didn’t cover either. In non-conference play, Baylor was 4-2 ATS when giving 20 or more points.

No. 2 Duke

Record: 28-6
Record over last 10 games: 8-2
ATS record: 17-14-3
ATS record over last 10: 3-7
Championship odds: +1400
Round of 64 Spread: -18.5 vs. Cal State Fullerton

The Blue Devils only lost three times before March 1 and have lost twice by double digits since the month began. Coach K’s team has failed to cover each of the last four games. Duke, naturally, was favored in all but one game this season: A neutral site game vs. Gonzaga, which it won outright as an 8-point underdog. Its tournament path is a bit more forgiving early on than the ACC has been to the Blue Devils as of late. But that also means hefty spreads, which Duke hasn’t taken care of as of late.

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No. 2 Villanova

Record: 26-7
Record over last 10 games: 9-1
ATS record: 16-15-2
ATS record over last 10: 3-5-2
Championship odds: +1800
Round of 64 Spread: -15.5 vs. Delaware

The Wildcats keep on stringing together wins, but not as far as bettors are concerned. Villanova was a 19.5-point favorite against Georgetown a few weeks back and won 74-66 and beat Providence, 76-74, at home as 10-point favorites. Villanova has covered one of its last five double-digit spreads. Winning the Big East, a conference that sent six teams dancing, means something for ‘Nova heading into the tournament, but bettors should beware the Wildcats’ recent woes.

No. 3 Wisconsin

Record: 24-7
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 17-14
ATS record over last 10: 5-5
Championship odds: +4500
Round of 64 Spread: -7.5 vs. Colgate

The Badgers had not lost back-to-back games until their most recent two. A home loss to Nebraska (as a 12.5-point favorite) and in the Big Ten tourney against Michigan State (-3.5) is not a good look heading into the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin was an underdog eight times this season and thrived in that spot, going 6-2 ATS and SU. Two of those outright wins came against Purdue, ranked in the top 10 both times the two teams met. The Badgers were not often giving double-digit points to opponents and they have a manageable first-round spread against a very good Colgate team.

No. 4 UCLA

Record: 25-7
Record over last 10 games: 8-2
ATS record: 17-14-1
ATS record over last 10: 7-3
Championship odds: +2200
Round of 64 Spread: -13.5 vs. Akron

The Bruins were favored in 28 of their 32 games. The only exceptions came against No.1 Gonzaga (+7, which they failed to cover) and three times against No. 1 Arizona, one of which they won outright as 2-point underdogs. UCLA has slipped up more than usual over the last month or so. After a 16-2 start, it closed the season 9-5. The Bruins’ ATS record matched their overall record down the stretch, though. And their slipups largely came against good teams like USC and Arizona, and pesky Oregon. UCLA has covered four of its last five as double-digit favorites, a good sign for its first game of the tournament.

The Ugly

No. 2 Kentucky

Record: 26-7
Record over last 10 games: 7-3
ATS record: 14-18-1
ATS record over last 10: 3-6-1
Championship odds: +800
Round of 64 Spread: -17.5 vs. Saint Peters

The Wildcats haven’t been as dominant over the last month as they were through the first 25 games. Two losses to Tennessee and one to Arkansas isn’t anything to crucify UK over, but the recent record ATS is a bit concerning. Somewhat surprisingly, Kentucky was listed as an underdog in seven games this season due to its tough schedule. Its ATS record in those games was 2-4-1. The Wildcats have only covered one of their last five double-digit spreads, but Saint Peters figures to put up less resistance than the SEC schedule UK faced.

No. 3 Purdue

Record: 27-7
Record over last 10 games: 6-4
ATS record: 13-20-1
ATS record over last 10: 0-9-1
Championship odds: +1800
Round of 64 Spread: -15.5 vs. Yale

The Boilermakers haven’t covered the spread in over a month. The last time they did was a -5.5 spot at home against Illinois—they scored a convincing 84-68 win. It’s been downhill since then. Losses to lesser teams like Michigan and Michigan State as favorites hurts, as does eking out two-point wins against Maryland and Indiana as double-digit favorites. Purdue was covering 10-plus-point spreads with ease early on in conference play but that dominance has slowed even as the Boilermakers reached the Big Ten championship game, which they lost to Iowa.

No. 4 Illinois

Record: 22-9
Record over last 10 games: 6-4
ATS record: 13-18
ATS record over last 10: 3-7
Championship odds: +4000
Round of 64 Spread: -7.5 vs. Chattanooga

The Illini are also on the downturn at the wrong time. They failed to cover each of their last three games as favorites, scoring narrow wins against Penn State and Iowa and losing to Indiana in the conference tourney. The spread for their Round of 64 game shows the lack of confidence in this team—Illinois is one of two teams seeded 1 through 4 that is not favored by double digits in the opening round. The Illini were never one of the teams giving massive 30-point spreads early in the year. And as the lines have narrowed, their performance hasn’t necessarily improved.

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