MLB National League Player Prop Bets: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year
With Opening Day so close, we're ready to make some last-minute moves on player prop bets.
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Most Valuable Player
When reviewing the option to win MVP in the National League at SI Sportsbook, I noticed that Nick Castellanos wasn’t listed along with the top pitching inventory (only Jacob deGrom, who is injured). The goal when trying to find a wise investment in these types of bets comes from identifying favorable odds. In addition, I’m looking for a player who plays on a contender or has a chance to deliver an exceptional season that beats the field by a wide margin.
OF Juan Soto, WAS (+275)
With Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis injured, Soto is the betting favorite to win the National League MVP. He has the best approach in baseball, leading to a ton of walks and runs. Soto has league-leading upside in batting average, but he can’t win this award without adding more loft to his swing path. I view him as a beast, and I wish I were able to draft him on some of my teams in 2022 (I drew the wrong draft slots). In the final version of my projections in 2022, I have him ranked second impact value (SIscore) behind Trea Turner. If Soto hits over 40 home runs (projected for 34) and steals at least 15 bags, he should be in the hunt to win the MVP. His only strike is that the Nationals won’t contend this season.
SS Trea Turner, LAD (+1100)
The census top player in fantasy drafts in 2022 is Turner, and he ranks first in my initial hitter projections (.311 with 114 runs, 26 home runs, 103 RBI, and 33 stolen bases). Los Angeles suggested hitting third in the batting order behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Turner has a high ceiling in batting average while coming off a career season in home runs (28). The Dodgers should finish with the best record in the National League, but their MVP votes could be divided between three or four players. His payoff is four times higher than Juan Soto, making him a better value. I sense that Mookie Betts bounces back in a big way, supported by his betting odds (+900). If so, Turner would lose key votes for MVP.
OF Bryce Harper, PHI (+750)
Over his 10 seasons in the majors, Harper has never been the best player in baseball. His floor in home runs has been 34 home runs over the past three full seasons (13 homers in 2020 over 58 games) while peaking in power (42 home runs) in 2015. He has three years with an edge in batting average (.330, .319, and .309). In addition, Harper takes plenty of walks, helping his value in runs. On the positive side, Philadelphia added two elite bats via free agency, and rookie Bryson Stotts could work his way to the top of the batting order, creating more RBI chances. Harper looks poised to have the best season of his career, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead the National League in home runs. His next step in his growth is becoming an RBI stud with runners on base.
OF Christian Yelich, MIL (+2500)
The Brewers are the best team in the NL Central, pointing to Yelich being the driving force on the offense side of the ball. However, his play has been disappointing in back-to-back seasons while also missing time last season due to injuries. From 2018 to 2019, Yelich hit .327 over 1,063 at-bats with the Brewers with 218 runs, 80 home runs, 207 RBI, and 52 stolen bases. At 25-1, he falls into an attractive betting range due to his potential ceiling. Best of all, no other hitter for Milwaukee should steal any of his MVP votes if he plays well. Yelich needs to stay healthy and lose some of his ground ball swing path to offer a winning season in power. I like his price point, and he would be my top choice to win the MVP in the National League.
1B Pete Alonso, NYM (+2500)
I could be on an island with Alonso in the season-long game in 2022. He has the best power swing in baseball, and the Mets have upgraded their overall lineup over the winter. But, when matched up with other top MVP contenders, his biggest strike comes in batting average (.256 career average). Last season, Alonso showed growth in his approach, giving him a chance to push much higher in average this year. He has a 53 home run season on his major league resume, and it won't be his last. Alonso will be a significant part of their success if the Mets win the competitive NL East. His odds (25-1) look favorable, but he may be a better bet to lead the majors in home runs (10-1).
Cy Young
The winning options for the Cy Young winner tend to be narrow due to only a limited number of pitchers reaching 200 innings. For a pitcher to offer an edge in wins, he needs to pitch for a team with a high-scoring offense while also having an elite group of relievers to protect leads. SI Sportsbook didn't list Josh Hader to win the Cy Young. To compete, he would have to save over 50 games with complementary wins and well over 100 strikeouts.
Walker Buehler (+800) and Julio Urias (+2,500) have excellent opportunities this season after reaching highs in innings last season. The most important question is whether their arms can handle a considerable jump in workload the following year. The Dodgers have an excellent offense, and their bullpen did improve by adding Craig Kimbrel. I prefer the odds on Urias (25-1). For Buehler to win, he’ll need improvement in his strikeout rate.
I have no interest in any Giants starting pitching to win the Cy Young award. Each pitcher has injury risk, and I don't see any of their starters making 30 starts. 2021 was a magical year for San Francisco, but wins will be more challenging this season.
SP Trevor Rogers, MIA (+4000)
Last year Rogers flashed ace upside when he posted a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 157 strikeouts over 133.0 innings. His minor league resume suggests he has a higher ceiling in command. With an entire season of starts, Rogers has the tools and arm to be one of the best pitchers in the National League. His price point (40-1) screams buying opportunity.
SP Jesus Luzardo, MIA (+6600)
Luzardo lost his way in 2021 due to massive problems with his command and many more hittable pitches. However, in 2018 in the A’s system, he appeared to be the next impact arm coming out of the minors after posting a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts over 109.1 innings. His fastball was popping (in the high 90s) in spring training, leading to one run over 11.2 innings with 10 strikeouts. As a result, Luzardo has been flying up draft boards in the high-stakes market. Even with momentum, he has never pitched over 110 innings in any season. Worth a dart due to his odds (66-1), but I would limit my exposure.
SP Tyler Mahle, CIN (+8000)
After pitching 180 innings last season with 201 strikeouts, Mahle fits the bill as a potential breakout arm. His next step is lowering his walk rate (3.2), which was much lower in the minors (1.9). He relies on a swing and miss split-finger fastball, putting him on a higher path in strikeouts. Cincinnati has a questionable bullpen, and their offense has a league-average feel. I like his arm, and he looks mispriced in the Cy Young betting.
Rookie of the Year
Finding value in the Rookie of the Year category becomes more difficult as the regular season approaches. Only a handful of players have a chance to play in the majors all season, and most of those options have short odds.
SS Oneil Cruz, PIT (+450)
Cruz drew plenty of interest in the early draft season, leading to him being the favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. Instead, Pittsburgh shipped him out to AAA in late spring training. I wasn’t as high on him as I expected him to have some strikeout risk early in his career due to his lack of experience at AAA (only 21 at-bats) and the majors (9 at-bats). Cruz has upside in power and speed, but I don’t see any reason to lay his odds (4.5 to 1).
SP Hunter Greene, CIN (+650)
With the Reds having some injuries in their starting rotation, they’ve decided to bring north two rookie arms. Greene has a triple-digit fastball with success over 21 starts at AA and AAA in 2021 (3.30 ERA and 139 strikeouts over 106.1 innings. His most significant questions will be his command and the long ball earlier in his career. Greene has a chance to pitch 150 innings in 2022, helping his opportunity to be the top National League rookie if he sticks in the majors all year.
SS Bryson Stott, PHI (+850)
Over the past week, Stott went from a waiver-wire option to an intriguing investment in the high-stakes market once he made the Phillies starting roster. His approach gives him top-of-the-order upside, but he doesn’t have a clear path to a job. Stott only has 33 at-bats of experience at AAA, so his stats may take some time to get rolling.
Camilo Doval, SF (+2000)
If the Giants give Doval the majority of save chances and he pitches like he did last September (14.1 shutout innings with 20 strikeouts, four wins, and three saves), Doval may run away with the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. San Francisco will give Jake McGee the early ball in the ninth inning to start the year. If he struggles, Doval will have the opportunity to seize the closing role. His odds (20-1) make him a more intriguing investment.
1B Seth Beer, ARI (+3300)
The next crop of star first basemen has been a missing link for fantasy teams over the past couple of years. I expect Spencer Torkelson to hit the ground running in 2022, and Beer has the bat to shine in the Diamondbacks’ lineup. Arizona gave him 362 at-bats of experience at AAA last season (.287 with 73 runs, 16 home runs, and 59 RBI). They should have him in the starting lineup on opening day, giving Beer the best opportunity of the rookie class to accumulate at-bats. He is my top play for Rookie of the Year in the National League.
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