MLB Over/Under Win Totals: Giants Fall, While Mariners Ready to Rise

Examining five MLB win totals to target in over/under betting, including the Giants, who won the most games in the majors last year, and the rising Mariners.

With the major league baseball season less than a week away, it is time to find some betting options at SI Sportsbook for wins totals.

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MLB Win Totals Over/Under

Milwaukee Brewers (90.0)

The Brewers are the class of the NL Central, thanks to three potential aces (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta) and one of the best closers (Josh Hader). They even have quality back-end starting options, plus another top-tier reliever (Devin Williams) to help shorten games. However, their offense has multiple question marks, with the first being the status of Christian Yelich’s bat and back. Milwaukee will outpitch every team in their division by a wide margin barring injuries.

The Cubs look to be in full rebuild mode, and Pittsburgh is miles away from winning half of their games. The Brewers ' upside in potential wins looks exceptionally high when adding that the Cardinals have a questionable starting rotation and bullpen. The Reds have a couple of developing arms (Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo), but two of their top starters (Luis Castillo and Mike Minor) already have shoulder issues. In addition, they have a league-average offense at best.

The bet on Milwaukee is more than 90 wins.

San Francisco Giants (84.5)

The Giants had an over/under of 75.5 wins coming into 2021. They had a remarkable year, resulting in 107 wins and the NL West title. When reviewing their starting rotation, San Francisco has some upside arms (Logan Webb, Carlos Rodon, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Cobb). Unfortunately, I don’t trust any of these options to make 30 starts or even pitch 180 innings. Webb pitched 148.1 innings last season, but he has never pitched over 105 innings in any other season.

The Giants overachieved offensively last year, and they don’t have any developing prospects ready to make an impact in the majors this year. In the end, their pitching will keep them in games, pointing to about a .500 record.

Unfortunately, they’ve already lost Evan Longoria for six weeks with a finger injury, plus Brandon Belt will begin the season with a knee issue. Chemistry was a big part of their success in 2021, which won’t be the case this season.

The play on San Francisco is under 84.5 wins.

Ross D. Franklin/AP

Oakland A’s (69.5)

The A’s sold off their star bats (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman) after the lockout, and their best starters should pitch elsewhere by the end of July. Oakland is in a complete sell/rebuild mode, while the four other teams in their division appeared to get much better over the winter. The A’s tend to get more out of their players for their money invested, but that ship left the building over the winter.

In addition, their bullpen lacks impact arms. My advice is to take the under 69.5 wins and watch Oakland do their best to lose games in 2022.

Detroit Tigers (78.5)

The front-end of the Tigers’ starting rotation is on the rise, thanks to the development of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal and possibly Matt Manning. Detroit also added Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Pineda to help keep them in more games. The Tigers also need their offense to show growth this year, and they will bring both Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson north. Both players have high upside, but they will have some peaks and valleys at the next level. The bottom line is that Detroit should be improved offensively, with an eye on stealing a backend playoff spot.

I expect the Tigers to win more than 78.5 innings in a division with three other subpar teams in the Royals, Guardians and Twins.

Charlie Riedel/AP

Seattle Mariners (84.0)

When the 2022 baseball season opens in Seattle, Mariner fans will have a special treat when they see Julio Rodriguez in their opening day lineup. He looks ready to take major baseball by storm, and I expect him to be a difference-maker in his rookie season. In addition, Seattle added two power bats (Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker) in the offseason to add length to its starting lineup. If Jarred Kelenic finds his stroke, the Mariners’ offensive ceiling will be much higher.

Seattle has one of their better bullpens in baseball, and hopefully added its ace (AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray) over the winter. The Mariners also have three electric arms (Logan Gilbert, Matt Brash and George Kirby) ready to help in 2022.

I project the Mariners to finish with more than 84 wins in 2022. 

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