March Madness Betting Advice: Favorite Kansas-Villanova, Duke-North Carolina Bets

Our staff provides their favorite bets for Saturday’s Final Four games between No. 2 Duke and No. 8 North Carolina and No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Villanova.

SI Editorial | Apr 1, 2022

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The four remaining blueblood programs in this year’s men’s NCAA tournament could arguably be the best Final Four ever assembled in the history of the storied event. The four remaining schools have combined for—SEVENTEEN—national championships.

You want more than that? OK, we can oblige.

Basketball fans will also get treated to the subplot of two bitter rivals facing off in the tournament for the first time in Hall-of-Fame Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last season at the helm!

Not only are Kansas, Duke, North Carolina and Villanova among the best programs in the sport, but their four outstanding head coaches have combined for an eye-popping 22 Final Four appearances.

With the Final Four less than 30 hours away, I polled some of my colleagues for their best Final Four investments.

Without further ado….

Final Four betting previews: Duke-North Carolina | Duke-North Carolina Best Bet | Kansas-Villanova | Kansas-Villanova Best Bet

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Not only are Kansas, Duke, North Carolina and Villanova among the best programs in the sport, but their four outstanding head coaches have combined for an eye-popping 22 Final Four appearances.

With the Final Four less than 30 hours away, I polled some of my colleagues for their best Final Four investments.

Without further ado….

Final Four betting previews: Duke-North Carolina | Duke-North Carolina Best Bet | Kansas-Villanova | Kansas-Villanova Best Bet

SI Betting and Fantasy’s Bill Enright:

In the two regular -eason matchups between these ACC rivals, the game totals were 154 and 175. I’m expecting another offensive explosion in the national spotlight for their Final Four battle. As Frank Taddeo eloquently pointed out in his

best bets article

,

North Carolina

is averaging four points more in tournament games (82.5) compared to its regular season average, while Duke is hovering around 79 points per game. Our senior betting analyst from Vegas also noted the total has averaged 171 points in the last six meeting between Duke and North Carolina. It’s the Final Four…why root for a low-scoring game? Grab the over and enjoy an offensive explosion.

BET: Duke-North Carolina Over 151 (-118)

SI.com’s Dan Lyons:

Kansas strikes me as the most-complete team remaining as we enter the Final Four.

Duke

is uber-talented but was plenty shaky during the season. North Carolina is on a tremendous run, but is also playing above the level that we saw for most of the season.

Villanova

is never a team to count out, but the Wildcats have struggled to score in recent games and don’t have the depth or star power of years past. Meanwhile,

Kansas

has been a steady team throughout the season, earning a No. 1 seed and putting in solid work throughout March so far. I certainly like the extra value from Duke being the favorite at +160 above the Jayhawks, as well. I also like the overs in both Final Four semifinal games. The big venues for these games can lead to some defensive struggles, but both numbers should be in range. Villanova’s offense scares me a bit, but I think they’ll be forced to keep pace with a Kansas team that should put up points well enough to clear a low 132.5 number. Duke and UNC cleared 151 points in both previous matchups, and the Tar Heels have come along quite impressively on offense in recent weeks. UNC topped 90 in that last regular-season game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

BETS: Kansas to win tournament (+170); Villanova-Kansas OVER 132.5 (-110); North Carolina-Duke OVER 151 (-118)

SI Betting and Fantasy’s Kyle Wood:

This Villanova-Kansas line is very, very low. But let me remind you that Houston and Villanova combined for 94(!) points in their Elite Eight meeting. Six of the Wildcats’ last 10 games have gone under with totals set as low as 128 points. Kansas, which is used to much higher over/under lines, has seen seven of its last 10 games go under including its last two, thanks to some stingy defense. With one of Villanova’s top scorers out in Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie on a cold streak heading into this game (5-20 over his last two games, 15-45 in the tournament), the under seems safe. Both Duke-UNC games hit the over this season, and both offenses are humming heading into this meeting. Eight of the Blue Devils’ last 10 games have hit the over with one of those lines even higher than this total (153 vs. UNC—175 points were scored). The Tar Heels’ games are an even split over their last 10, but they’ve scored 90-plus points in three of their last seven games and allowed more than 80 points to Duke in both matchups this season. The possibility of a letdown is certainly there given the hype surrounding this game, but I think both offenses roll in a high-scoring clash.

BET: Villanova-Kansas UNDER 132.5 (-118); North Carolina-Duke OVER 151 (-118)

SI Betting’s Matt Ehalt:

Since Kyle and I have already tackled our ATS bets for

Kansas-Villanova

and

North Carolina-Duke

, I’m going to go with the over/under bets. Villanova’s defense is quite good and has kept its last three games all under this total. This could be a game in the 60s. I’d be surprised if Villanova’s offenses pushes this into the mid-130s. For Duke-UNC, both games passed this in the regular season but I’m going to bet that both defenses show up. Let’s also remember that shooting in these domes can sometimes be an issue. I’m not sure we’re going to get this game to the upper 70s from both sides as it would require. So, let’s bet the under.

BETS: Kansas-Villanova UNDER 133 (-118); Duke-North Carolina UNDER 151 (-110)

SI Betting’S Frankie Taddeo:

If you are looking for my respected information best bets for the Final Four check them out here for

Duke-North Carolina

and

Kansas-Villanova

Besides those wagers, let’s have some fun here with several player proposition wagers. First: Duke GUARD Jeremy Roach over 9.5 points The talented freshman, who is averaging 12.8 points and 3.8 assists per game in the tournament, is shooting a blistering 49.7% from the field. In two meetings with UNC this season, Roach was efficient, hitting 8 of 11 (72.7%) shots from the field while converting 5 of 6 (83.3%) from the free-throw line. Roach has gained the trust of the Duke coaching staff and is averaging 35.5 minutes per game in the tournament and could be sitting on a big effort on Saturday. Second: North Carolina forward Brady Manek over 16.5 points. The Oklahoma transfer is averaging 21.5 points per game in the tournament—which is the most of any player playing in the Final Four. A deeper dive reveals that the talented Manek has exceeded this projection in six of his last eight games overall. The senior is hitting at a 47.1% clip on 34 attempts from beyond the arc in the tournament after averaging 20.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in two regular season meetings with Duke. Expect another big effort.

BETS: Jeremy Roach OVER 9.5 points; Brady Manek OVER 16.5 points

***

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Published Apr 1, 2022

SI EDITORIAL